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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Roval 400k

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 14, 2020, 10:52 pm ET

Line Moves

Chase Elliott (+260) opened the week as a huge favorite to win the Roval 400k with a +290. That is one of the lowest odds seen during the year. PointsBet Sportsbook had Kevin Harvick listed at +260 at Darlington while another sportsbook had him listed as low at +250 for Michigan’s Consumers Energy 312 earlier this year. Harvick won both of those races.

Apparently even with odds that would only return $2.90 on the dollar, enough money came in for the oddsmakers to limit their exposure. As a result, they took 30 cents away from the payout. If Elliott was a good bet at the start of the week, he is even more so now that his value has been affirmed by actual wagers.

Track position makes a big difference on a road course, but Elliott navigates it better than most of the field. All one needs to do is recall last year’s Roval 400k when he was forced to come through the pack after nosing his car into the Turn 1 barricade with a rare mistake.


The gap widened between Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. (+600) as the week progressed.

Truex opened at +560, but oddsmakers were forced to sweeten the pot in order to get some action. They added 40 cents to his payout and widened the gap between the two frontrunners. At the start of the week the difference between Elliott and Truex was +270. As of Saturday morning, it was +340. This makes Truex even more appealing because the odds should be much closer between the two. Truex is one of the few drivers capable of beating Elliott under normal circumstances and if he gets track position at the end of the show, he will be incredibly hard to pass.

Oddsmakers were also required to improve the payout on Kyle Busch (1600). He started at 15/1 at PointsBet and had a dollar added to his payout. Busch is capable of winning anywhere. And he may be the most motivated driver in the field since a win means he would break his season-long winless streak and advance to the Round of 8. If he is in position to make something happen in the closing laps, nothing will stand in his way. The downside of that is if he dives too deeply into a corner and does not make contact with his rival’s back bumper, he is likely to wheel-hop or spin in the attempt.

Brad Keselowski (+1600), Joey Logano (+1800), and Alex Bowman (+2000) each saw a line movement of -200 in attempt to get more money flowing. Of these three drivers, Bowman is the most interesting – and not only because at 20/1 he has the greatest upside. Bowman is not particularly strong on road courses overall even though he has swept the top 15 since joining Hendrick Motorsports. But he has learned how to navigate the Roval and earned top-fives in both of his starts on this track. Last year, he finished second to teammate Elliott.

Among the top 20 ranked drivers, Aric Almirola (+5000) and Tyler Reddick (+8000) were the only drivers to see their odds improve. Both showed a movement of +1000 that is suggestive of a number of positive bets in their favor. We don’t recommend following suit.

Almirola has a pair of top-10 road course finishes to his credit in the past three seasons. Both came on the technically challenging Sonoma Raceway. His best finish on the Roval was 14th last year.

Reddick has limited experience at the Cup level with one start and an 18th on the Daytona road course this summer.

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Rank

Driver

Current Odds

Opening Odds

Change

1

Chase Elliott

260

290

30

2

Martin Truex Jr.

600

560

-40

3

Kevin Harvick

775

775

0

3

Denny Hamlin

775

775

0

5

Ryan Blaney

1200

1200

0

6

Kyle Busch

1600

1500

-100

6

Clint Bowyer

1600

1600

0

6

Brad Keselowski

1600

1400

-200

8

Joey Logano

1800

1600

-200

10

Alex Bowman

2000

1800

-200

 

11

Jimmie Johnson

2200

2200

0

12

Kurt Busch

2500

2200

-300

13

William Byron

2800

2500

-300

14

Aric Almirola

5000

6000

1000

14

Matt DiBenedetto

5000

4000

-1000

16

Michael McDowell

6000

6000

0

16

Erik Jones

6000

5000

-1000

18

Christopher Bell

7000

7000

0

19

Tyler Reddick

8000

9000

1000

19

Chris Buescher

8000

8000

0

 

21

Austin Dillon

12500

15000

2500

21

Cole Custer

12500

12500

0

23

Matt Kenseth

15000

15000

0

23

Ryan Newman

15000

15000

0

25

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

20000

20000

0

26

James Davison

25000

25000

0

27

Bubba Wallace

40000

40000

0

28

JJ Yeley

50000

50000

0

28

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

28

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

28

Ty Dillon

50000

50000

0

28

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

28

Brennan Poole

50000

50000

0

28

Daniel Suarez

50000

50000

0

28

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

28

Gray Gaulding

50000

50000

0

28

JH Nemechek

50000

50000

0

28

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.