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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Season Finale 500k

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: November 11, 2020, 2:05 pm ET

Line Moves

Very little changed from Monday through Saturday in terms of line movement for the Season Finale 500k at PointsBet Sportsbook.

Only five drivers experienced any movement at all and one of the drivers who did, switched back to his original odds.

Kevin Harvick (+375) opened at +375, saw a slight adjustment of 15 points to +360 during the middle of the week, but ended where he started on Saturday. Neither the book nor the bettors felt any great need to change their opinion on Harvick as he remains the favorite on a track he’s dominated in the past.

Harvick is certainly disappointed that he failed to advance to the Championship 4 and that will only serve to make him ever more focused on humiliating the field. Whether he actually wins outright is an open question since a non-playoff driver has never taken the championship race in NASCAR’s current format.


The only playoff driver to experience any line movement was Brad Keselowski (+520). The fact that .20 cents was deducted from his payout of +540 is essentially meaningless, but the interesting factor is that he showed movement at all. That suggests enough bets rolled in to turn on the calculators and make an adjustment.

Kyle Busch (+800) saw .25 cents added to his payout. At the beginning of the week we believed Busch was a good bet given his current streak of five consecutive top-three finishes at Phoenix only now you may get an extra quarter on your bet. Nothing has changed our opinion and now that his odds to earn a top-three have stabilized at +250, that seems like and even safer bet.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000) was the biggest mover among the top 10. He had 100 points added to his total during the week, and while he will probably score a top-10, it’s hard to generate much enthusiasm for a team that has made so many mistakes in the Tech Inspection line over the past several weeks. In the past five seasons, Truex has finished outside the top 10 in almost half his starts including a 32nd this spring in the FanShield 500k after he crashed on Lap 282.

Prop Bets

Clint Bowyer has odds of +7000 to win outright, but the good news is that longshot drags his odds of finishing among the top 10 to +135. There is not a lot of money to be made on a bet that returns $1.35 on each dollar wagered, but if modest side bets fit your strategy, Bowyer finished fifth this spring and was eighth last fall. In spring 2019, he came up one position shy of earning a third top-10.

The Group Matchups at PointsBet this week reveal how close odds makers really believe the Phoenix 4 will be to Harvick at the finish line. Harvick (+230) is favored in this group, but by a very narrow margin over Denny Hamlin (+245), Joey Logano (+245), and Brad Keselowski (+260). They don’t seem to believe the No. 4 will drive away from the field.

That leaves Chase Elliott (+155) in a group of non-playoff contenders. He stacks up against Ky. Busch (+275), Truex (+285) and Ryan Blaney (+325). Since we have Busch handicapped to finish first or second, this provides another opportunity to place a wager on the No. 18.

Group C features a matchup between Aric Almirola (+235), Alex Bowman (+235), Kurt Busch (+235), and Matt DiBenedetto (+275). Busch has won this matchup twice during the past three races including this spring when he finished sixth to Almirola’s eighth, DiBenedetto’s 13th, and Bowman’s 14th. The only time he failed to score best in this foursome was in spring 2019 when he was seventh behind Almirola in fourth.

Group D also features what would seem to be a fairly easy wager. Clint Bowyer (+225) has beaten William Byron (+225) and Erik Jones (+225) in each of the last three Phoenix contests by a minimum of five positions this spring: He was fifth to Byron’s 10th. Rookie Christopher Bell (+300) was a distant 24th in the first Phoenix race this year.

Elliott (+200) is favored to be the best Chevrolet driver over Bowman (+750) and Ku. Busch (+750).

Harvick (+200) is a slight favorite over Keselowski (+210) and Logano (+240) in the Ford camp.

Hamlin (-125) is highly favored among Toyota drivers Ky. Busch (+265) and Truex (+290).

Further clarity on the bookmakers attitude toward the Phoenix 4 is found in two head-to-head matchups. Hamlin (-115) is slightly favored over Keselowski (-105), but Elliott (-120) is heavily favored over Logano (+100). In terms of odds to win the championship, PointsBet has Elliott and Hamlin tied at +240, but since the No. 9 is favored so heavily over Logano and Hamlin is narrowly predicted to beat Keselowski, that suggests Elliott is their favorite.  

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

 

Rank

Driver

Current Odds

Opening Odds

Change

1.

Kevin Harvick

375

375

0

2.

Denny Hamlin

475

475

0

3.

Chase Elliott

500

500

0

4.

Brad Keselowski

520

540

20

5.

Joey Logano

600

600

0

6.

Kyle Busch

800

775

-25

7.

Martin Truex Jr.

1000

900

-100

8.

Ryan Blaney

1400

1400

0

9.

Kurt Busch

3500

3500

0

10.

Aric Almirola

4000

4000

0

10.

Alex Bowman

4000

4000

0

 

12.

William Byron

6000

5000

-1000

13.

Jimmie Johnson

6000

6000

0

13.

Erik Jones

6000

6000

0

15.

Clint Bowyer

7000

7000

0

16.

Matt DiBenedetto

8000

8000

0

17.

Cole Custer

9000

9000

0

18.

Christopher Bell

10000

10000

0

19.

Matt Kenseth

15000

15000

0

19.

Austin Dillon

15000

15000

0

19.

Tyler Reddick

15000

15000

0

 

22.

Ryan Newman

20000

20000

0

23.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

35000

35000

0

24.

JJ Yeley

50000

50000

0

24.

Michael McDowell

50000

50000

0

24.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

24.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

24.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

24.

Ty Dillon

50000

50000

0

24.

Chris Buescher

50000

50000

0

24.

Bubba Wallace

50000

50000

0

24.

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

24.

Brennan Poole

50000

50000

0

24.

Daniel Suarez

50000

50000

0

24.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

24.

JH Nemechek

50000

50000

0

24.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

24.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

24.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.