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Week 2 Early Line Movement

by Warren Sharp
Updated On: September 15, 2020, 11:10 pm ET

Each week, we will take a snapshot of “lookahead” lines on Sunday morning. Lookahead are set a game in advance, so they are not lines for that day’s action, but the next game after, for the following week’s games. We will display the upcoming matchup with the lookahead lines in parenthesis below.  

Once the day’s action has concluded, in this case, yesterday’s Week 1 Sunday games, we will analyze how the lines have shifted based on these team’s performance.  

Understanding such line and total movement can help us determine if the linesmakers made over adjustments to the most recent performance or appropriately took game results into consideration. Additionally, we’ll input any early Monday morning line movement into the analysis to get a complete picture of the marketplace.

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Bengals at Browns (-7.5, total 44.5)
After the humiliating loss to the Ravens and the near win by the Bengals, the line is now down to Browns -6 and a slight drop in the total, down to 44.

Rams at Eagles (-3.5, total 48)
While the Eagles lost outright and the Rams won, the line has only shifted by 0.5 points, down to 3. However, that number may not hold. While the total re-opened at 48 last night, it took a big hit this morning and is down to 46.

Panthers at Buccaneers (-8, total 48.5)
Tom Brady’s Buccaneers did not look strong against the Saints but that hasn’t swayed the market as the odds sit at a consensus 8.5 with an identical total.

Broncos at Steelers (-6, total 43)
Unchanged, as neither team played yet.

Falcons at Cowboys (-6.5, total 50)
Dallas lost to the Rams and the Falcons were humiliated by the Seahawks. The number dipped to Dallas -6, with the total up to 50.5.

49ers (-6, total 43.5) at Jets
Although the 49ers lost to the Cardinals, the Jets looked so bad against the Bills that this line has moved in the 49ers favor. San Francisco is now laying 7 points on the road, with an identical total.

Bills (-3.5, total 43) at Dolphins
With Buffalo dismantling the Jets and the Dolphins losing to the Patriots, this line has risen to Buffalo -5.5 with the total down to 42 points. Early Monday movement has this total trending down to 41.5.

Vikings at Colts (-2.5, total 46)
Both teams looked bad on Sunday, and this line has shifted slightly to the Colts -3, with the total making a larger move, up to 47.5.

Lions at Packers (-6, total 46)
Although the Packers dominated the Vikings and the Lions lost outright, the Lions strong performance prior to the loss has early action buying them, dropping this number down to the Packers -5.5, with the total bet up to 47.5. This line appears headed back to Packers -6.

Giants at Bears (-5.5, total 43)
Unchanged, pending the Giants game on Monday night.

Jaguars at Titans (-11, total 43)
Unchanged, pending the Titans game on Monday night.

Washington at Cardinals (-6.5, total 46.5)
With both teams pulling outright upsets as large dogs, this line sits at the Cardinals -7 with a total down slightly, to 45.5. Some spots now have the Cardinals at 7 with “+” juice, indicating a move back to 6.5 could occur very soon.

Ravens (-5.5, total 53) at Texans
The Ravens massive win has shifted this line to Baltimore -6.5.  While the total reopened at 53, it is now down to 52.5. This line appears headed to Baltimore -7.

Chiefs (-6.5, total 50.5) at Chargers
With the Chargers nearly losing to Joe Burrow’s Bengals, the Chiefs line has risen to -8.5, with a total slightly down, to 49.5. This line likely moves to 9 to avoid the teaser window (favorites of between 7 to 8.5, which can be teased by 6 points to drop below a field goal).

Patriots at Seahawks (-3.5, total 44)
Seattle put on the more impressive performance on Sunday, and their number has risen to -4. The total remains unchanged.

Saints (-5.5, total 50.5) at Raiders
Both teams won outright as favorites, and the spread on this Monday night meeting hasn’t changed. But the total has risen to 51.5.

Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp is a football betting analyst for NBC Sports. As a leading voice in football analytics, Warren writes a yearly book previewing the upcoming season from all angles at his Sharp Football Analysis website. You can follow Warren Sharp on Twitter @SharpFootball.