I’m hoping this mock draft will be a little different from what you’re used to seeing. In addition to outlining prospect to team fits, I’ve added my thoughts on the NFL Draft prospect prop bets I’ve seen listed across the internet. DraftKings and FanDuel both have prop bets listed, as do others. In this case, an “over” means the prospect will be selected after the listed prop, so “under” obviously means before. If you have thoughts or questions about certain props or the mock draft in general, then hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks.
1. Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB1
Burrow to Cincy seems inevitable after he cleared things up at the Combine, especially with the Bengals working to ship Dalton elsewhere. You can read my scouting report and statistical eval on Burrow here.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Burrow as 1st overall pick” at -10,000 odds
2. Redskins - Chase Young, EDGE1
After trading actual draft picks for backup QB Kyle Allen, I’d be really surprised if Washington drafted a quarterback here, so Young is the chalk. He’s the consensus top non-QB prospect in the class.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Young as 2nd overall pick” at -305 odds
3. Dolphins (moved up to DET) - Tua Tagovailoa, QB2
The Lions can move down two or three spots and draft a blue-chip defensive prospect, so this is simply deciding between who is trading up -- the Dolphins or Chargers. I personally have bet on Tua going to the Chargers at +300 odds, but I think the most likely scenario is the Dolphins trading up to draft him. Miami has more picks and aren’t as far down the board. Plus, I have heard the Chargers love Herbert. You can read my scouting report and statistical eval on Tagovailoa here.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Tagovailoa under 3.5 overall pick” at -115 odds
4. Giants - Isaiah Simmons, LB1
GM Dave Gettleman never trades down and always has his eye on big athletes. There are a few OTs that fit the mold, but Simmons, a 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete, is rare and immediately improves the Giants’ 27th ranked DVOA defense. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller also said, “Many NFL scouts believe the New York Giants will select Clemson linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons at No. 4 overall.”
Prop Bet Verdict: “Simmons as Giants first player” at +350 odds
5. Lions (moved down to MIA) - Jeffrey Okudah, CB1
With Detroit moving on from Darius Slay, this fit is as obvious as it gets. Okudah has been my favorite defensive player to watch film on this draft szn, and he solidified his top-10 status with 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism. Okudah ended up at the No. 6 overall prospect in my Analytics Top 300 Big Board.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Okudah over 4.5 overall pick” at -148 odds
6. Chargers - Justin Herbert, QB3
I’ve heard that the Chargers have liked Herbert, who would be a personality fit with the Bolts, for a couple of seasons, so I’m going to play it safe and have them stay put at No. 6 in this mock draft. What I don’t know is how high they are on Tua, who can likely be had with an aggressive trade offer to Detroit at No. 3 overall. Two things that have recently caught my eye was NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah having the Chargers trade up for Tua in this mock draft and Jeremiah suggesting the Chargers should draft Tua. Jeremiah not only is the most plugged in draft expert, but he also is the Chargers’ TV color analyst during the NFL season. He’ll probably drop more hints about what will happen with L.A. in April, so pay close attention.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Herbert over 5.5 overall pick” at -225 odds
7. Panthers - Derrick Brown, DT1
A 45th percentile Adjusted SPARQ performance at the NFL Combine makes a slide possible for Brown, but the Panthers’ offseason moves make this a great prospect to team fit. If Carolina hadn’t traded for OT Russell Okung, then I would’ve mocked one of the top offensive tackles here.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Brown under 9.5 overall pick” at -134 odds
8. Cardinals - Jedrick Wills, OT1
The DeAndre Hopkins trade increased the already high odds of Arizona drafting an offensive tackle here. Which one is harder to figure out. Does a 6’8” tackle in Mekhi Becton make sense for the 5’10” Kyler Murray? Maybe not. I could see Tristan Wirfs’ 97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete being valuable in Kingsbury’s Air Raid, but I think Wills has the best overall tape and is still a good athlete, which is why I bet Wills to be the 1st OT drafted at +450 odds earlier this month.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Wills under 8.5 overall pick” at -106 odds
9. Jaguars - Tristan Wirfs, OT2
Jacksonville has a million holes to fill, and Wirfs, 97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete, can easily win a tackle job or start his career as a stud guard if need be. I also think CB C.J. Henderson would be an excellent pick here, but this would be the high-end range of where he’s expected to go.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Wirfs over 8.5 overall pick” at -106 odds
10. Browns - Mekhi Becton, OT3
At the Combine, I stood next to GM Andrew Berry during HC Kevin Stefanski’s interview. When Stefanski preached athleticism on the line, Berry nodded his head in agreement. Becton, a 100th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete, certainly matches up with their analytical vision. The Louisville product was my Analytics Top 300 Big Board’s highest-ranked offensive tackle in the class.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Becton over 8.5 overall pick” at +100 odds
11. Jets - CeeDee Lamb, WR1
This pick should essentially be made by Sam Darnold himself. Does he want the best available offensive tackle (Andrew Thomas) or his top choice at receiver? Lamb is a better fit than Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs for the Jets, as he slides in as the X receiver next to slot WR Jamison Crowder and deep threat Breshad Perriman. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Lamb here.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Lamb as Jets first player” at +420 odds
12. Raiders - Jerry Jeudy, WR2
Las Vegas added a bunch of random defensive players this free agency and only added Nelson Agholor to a receiver group that’s “headlined” by Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow. Gruden will be addressing the position early, and Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb are obvious fits as it would push Williams back into his natural No. 2 receiver role. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Jeudy here.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Jeudy over 11.5 overall pick” at -110 odds
13. Broncos (move up to SF) - Henry Ruggs, WR3
Broncos’ analysts believe Ruggs is the top receiver on their board, which is kind of bold but does make some sense as a compliment to Courtland Sutton. Having a capable running game, Sutton, Fant, and Ruggs (or another early-round WR) will make evaluating potential franchise quarterback Drew Lock a lot easier. With the top two receivers gone, the Broncos guarantee they get their guy by boxing out teams like the Eagles or Vikings from stealing their guy in a trade up. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Ruggs here.
14. Buccaneers - Andrew Thomas, OT4
Signing Tom Brady also means adding support around him, specifically on the offensive line to protect his fragile 43-year-old body. Thomas, a 71st percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete, can start right away after doing work in the SEC for a few seasons.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Thomas over 10.5 overall pick” at -134 odds
15. 49ers (move down to DEN) - Javon Kinlaw, DT2
This is an obvious connection after San Francisco traded DT DeForest Buckner away to the Colts. Kinlaw needs more development, but the 49ers don’t need an every down player right away and Kinlaw is twitchy enough to do some damage while growing as a player.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Kinlaw over 13.5 overall pick” at -118 odds
16. Falcons - C.J. Henderson, CB2
Atlanta cleared house at corner and are likely hoping Henderson falls to them. He’s not a perfect prospect but has all of the traits to be a shadow corner in the NFL. Henderson is a 92nd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete and 97th percentile overall corner prospect.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Henderson under 16.5 overall pick” at -110 odds
17. Cowboys - K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE2
Dallas lost a few starters on defense, including sack artist Robert Quinn. Chaisson brings a lot of juice to the table as a stand-up pass rusher who can try to put away games with the Cowboys Offense looking like one of the best in the league again. Chaisson, who is only 20 years old, is the No. 12 overall prospect on my Analytics Top 300 Big Board.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Chaisson over 15.5 overall pick” at -110 odds
18. Jaguars (move up to MIA) - Jordan Love, QB4
Does Jacksonville like Gardner Minshew? Absolutely. Do they like him enough to not address the position early in this draft? I’m less convinced, especially if they don’t add a notable veteran in free agency. For Love in particular, it’s hard to find a landing spot much earlier than this, so it’s possible he falls well beyond this. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Love here.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Love over 17.5 overall pick” at -125 odds.
19. Raiders - Kenneth Murray, LB2
This is another obvious fit, both as a player and personality. The Raiders are looking for alphas to build the culture in Las Vegas and that’s exactly Murray, even if he’s not an elite all-around player.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Murray under 20.5 overall pick” at +100 odds
20. Dolphins (move down to JAX) - Xavier McKinney, S1
Miami addressed corner and linebacker with free agency but still need to plug in a starter at safety after releasing Reshad Jones. McKinney is only an 8th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete, but film grinders really respect how he handled a lot of responsibility in Nick Saban’s defense last year. McKinney seems like a personality fit with Brian Flores.
Prop Bet Verdict: “McKinney under 24.5 overall pick” at -114 odds
21. Eagles - Justin Jefferson, WR4
Philly addressed their CB1 hole with Darius Slay, so it’s now time to upgrade that receiver group. Jefferson was awesome in the slot at LSU but showed enough athleticism to be a fit on the outside in the Eagles’ heavy two-TE offense. He’s simply one of my favorite prospects in the class. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Jefferson here.
Prop Bet Verdict: Anything with Jefferson as the WR4 if you can find it. For example, I booked Jefferson (-170) as being selected before Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims, and Brandon Aiyuk.
22. Vikings - Kristian Fulton, CB3
After a mini reset this offseason, Minnesota has two glaring needs -- corner and receiver. There are a handful of options at both positions in the second half of Round 1, so this is a nearly impossible pick to exactly nail. My best guess is Fulton, who has 70th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and has flashed high upside at times. It’s just a matter of cleaning up his game.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Fulton under 24.5 overall pick” at -110 odds
23. Patriots - Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE3
Quite frankly, I have zero idea what Bill Belichick will do with this draft. For the first time in a while, he has many holes to fill after a mass exodus this offseason. Gross-Matos was productive at Penn State and has a unique playing style that’s reliant on his lengthy build. It’s a profile that Belichick could find intriguing.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Gross-Matos under 26.5 overall pick” at +103 odds
24. Saints - Patrick Queen, LB3
The offense seems set after signing Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, and there aren’t many holes on defense. Queen would be a luxury pick in the middle of the field, and he just happens to have won a National Championship down the street at LSU. Few have improved their draft stock as much as Queen has in the last five months. He was an 81st percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete at the Combine.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Queen over 20.5 overall pick” at -136 odds
25. Vikings - Denzel Mims, WR5
The Baylor product was a winner at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine, where he showed 89th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism. Mims isn’t the route runner Stefon Diggs is, but he does win downfield, which is what Kirk Cousins will miss most with the trade. Diggs was the most efficient receiver on targets traveling 15+ yards downfield last season.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Mims under 34.5 overall pick” at -125 odds
26. Dolphins - Austin Jackson, OT5
Was Jackson an elite player at USC last year? No, but the Dolphins aren’t trying to win a Super Bowl in 2020. They can afford to give him developmental reps right away. Remember, Jackson is only a 20-year-old and showed 89th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism at the NFL Combine, so perhaps he’ll look better on the field now that he’s had a year to recover from donating bone marrow to his sister.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Jackson over 25.5 overall pick” at -115 odds
27. Seahawks - Trevon Diggs, CB4
The Quinton Dunbar trade makes this less of a team need, but I like the team fit. Diggs has the height, weight, and arm length that Seattle has targeted for years. Also, if there’s a team that likes taking on a personality, it’s the Seahawks. Diggs from what I’ve been told is a character.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Diggs under 27.5 overall pick” at -110 odds
28. Ravens - Tee Higgins, WR6
I could see Higgins falling out of the first round after showing 36th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism at Clemson’s Pro Day, but this is a fit that I do like. Higgins’ huge frame pairs well with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ receiver group that lacks size. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Higgins here.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Over 5.5 WRs in the 1st Round” at -134 odds
29. Titans - Josh Jones, OT6
With Tennessee losing Jack Conklin this offseason, they’ll be hoping one of these Tier 2 offensive tackle prospects fall into their laps. In this case, one does in Jones, who was the No. 25 overall prospect in my Analytics Top 300 Big Board.
Prop Bet Verdict: Ignoring “Jones over 28.5 overall pick” at -107 odds
30. Packers - Brandon Aiyuk, WR7
Adding Devin Funchess this offseason is not nearly enough. Aiyuk might already be better than Funchess, and he’d be a fantastic depth option in Year 1 if not. He offers YAC ability with 76th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and would be the long-term complement to Adams. You can read my early scouting report and statistical eval on Aiyuk here.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Over 5.5 WRs in the 1st Round” at -134 odds
31. 49ers - Laviska Shenault, WR8
San Francisco depleted their Day 2 picks with previous trades, so I won’t be surprised if they ultimately trade this pick. For now, I’ll give them a receiver who fits their physical culture in Shenault. The Colorado prospect dominates within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and would be another short-yardage weapon for Kyle Shanahan, the best short-yardage schemer in the NFL.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Over 5.5 WRs in the 1st Round” at -134 odds
32. Chiefs - A.J. Terrell, CB5
Kansas City is wisely focusing on the passing game on both offense and defense, and this pick would only add to it. Terrell, who is a 21-year-old Clemson corner with 67th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism, has already had a formal interview with the Chiefs and said he’d love to play there.
Prop Bet Verdict: “Over 4.5 CBs in the 1st Round” at -134 odds
Count by Position
Top-10 Offense: 6
Top-10 Defense: 4
Bets I've Made
Fantasy Football Content