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Dwayne Haskins
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Mock Drafts

NFL Draft Prop Bets

by Hayden Winks

To help find my favorite NFL Draft prop bets, I found it very helpful to actually build a mock draft to put my shoes into all 32 teams. Here's how I have it shaking out:

 

1. Arizona Cardinals - QB Kyler Murray

I'm buying it, despite the haters and losers saying otherwise.

2. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Nick Bosa

The only way I see this going sideways is if Murray isn't the 1st overall pick.

3. New York Jets - DT Ed Oliver

The Jets are "desperate" to trade down, and I wouldn't rule out a quarterback-needy team making a big move up. Perhaps Washington. If they do stay here, I think it's between Oliver, Quinnen Williams, and Josh Allen. Williams is considered the best overall player in the draft, so I lean Williams over the other two but I'm giving the Jets Oliver because he'd be one of their targets in the event of a trade down.  

4. Oakland Raiders - DT Quinnen Williams

Smokescreen translation: The Raiders put out that they're high on Haskins to force a team to trade with the Jets, which allows Oakland to get the best player in the draft. 

5. Tampa Bay Bucs - LB Devin White

The league's "worst kept secret" is that the Bucs love White, but I'm not ruling out a trade down either if a team wants to get in front of the quarterback-needy Giants.

 

 

6. New York Giants - EDGE Josh Allen

NFL types believe Allen will fall to 6th overall, and he seems to be an edge rusher that Gettleman wants. I don't see a point of the Giants taking Daniel Jones this early with no team being huge threat to select him before their 17th overall pick. Gettleman also has the draft picks (12) to make a move up from 17th if need be.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Jawaan Taylor

This seems to be coming down to offensive tackle (Taylor, Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard in that order) or T.J. Hockenson. I'm more pessimistic than others that Hockenson is a top-10 pick, so I'll take the tackle that has been mocked here the most, especially since Taylor fits their run-first identity.

8. Detroit Lions - EDGE Montez Sweat

The Lions definitely want to trade down, and they have three possible suitors (Atlanta for DT or OT, Carolina for OT or EDGE, and any quarterback-needy team). Even though I mocked Sweat here, I'd be surprised if he went this high, but I don't see Sweat falling deep into the second half of the draft. 

9. Buffalo Bills - OT Andre Dillard

The Bills are also a trade down candidate, but if they stay, I expect this pick to be in the trenches. The surprise pick could be DT Christian Wilkins, but I'm sticking with offensive tackle with rumors that offensive linemen are coming off the board early.

10. Denver Broncos - LB Devin Bush

This has been a very common pairing, and I buy it. Bush would be Fangio's sideline to sideline backer. 

11. Cincinnati Bengals - OT/OG Jonah Williams

The Athletic's Joe Goodberry has a list of prospects who fit the Bengals draft history, and Williams was the highest on that list. 

12. Green Bay Packers - TE T.J. Hockenson

The 12th pick is reportedly Hockenson's floor, but I can see him sliding further as we've seen with other first-round tight ends in recent years. With that said, many believe he could be a top-10 pick (Jaguars, Lions, Bills, and Broncos). 

13. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Brian Burns

I'm not expecting the Dolphins to be aggressive with this quarterback class (if one falls, then maybe), but I am expecting the Dolphins to be aggressive with the offensive and defensive line. Trading down, as Evan Silva mentioned, also makes sense.

14. Atlanta Falcons - DT Christian Wilkins

The Falcons are trade-up candidates, and reports have linked them to both offensive and defensive tackle. If Oliver slides to 8th overall, I won't be surprised if they make a move up. Some reporters believe they could even move up for Wilkins.

15. Washington Redskins - QB Dwayne Haskins

The Redskins are one of the many wild cards of the draft, and I'm expecting chaos with owner Dan Snyder "taking over" the first round of the draft. One of my bold predictions is the Redskins moving all the way up to 3rd overall to take Haskins, but they might not have to go that high up to draft him.

16. Carolina Panthers - OT/OG Cody Ford

The Panthers are a trade-up candidate, especially if the offensive linemen start coming off the board quickly. If they stay put, Ford is a nice team fit with the potential to play inside or out. However, in a perfect world, an edge rusher like Brian Burns or Montez Sweat falls. 

17. New York Giants - QB Daniel Jones

The Giants have all of the picks to move up to lock up Jones, but I don't necessarily believe it's a must. Do other NFL teams actually believe this guy is good?

18. Minnesota Vikings - IOL Chris Lindstrom

When national reporters mention an odd name to a team repeatedly, I take notice. This pick makes sense given the Vikings' huge needs on the offensive line and considering Lindstrom is really good.

19. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Clelin Ferrell

I have my concerns with Ferrell as a top-20 pick, but edge rushers tend to get a little pushed up (as they should). One thing that did catch my eye in Jeremiah's mock was linking Drew Lock to the Titans. That sounded ludicrous at first, but I've warmed up to that as a possibility if Lock falls.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Rock Ya-Sin

The Steelers are hard to peg down, so I went with the chalk and gave them a corner. Ya-Sin has emerged as a candidate as CB1 with other corners having athletic or character issues.

21. Seattle Seahawks - DT Jeffery Simmons

I'd be surprised to see Simmons fall out of Round 1, and I think the Seahawks are a team that would be willing to take a gamble on a potential top-five talent.

22. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Rashan Gary

Gary is expected to fall down the boards with production and injury (shoulder) issues. The Ravens edge rushing need makes this a nice fit.

23. Houston Texans - IOL Garrett Bradbury

NFL Media's Lance Zierlein doesn't expect the Texans to trade up to draft one of the top-end offensive linemen, but I view Bradbury as a nice consolation prize. However, one of the second tier offensive tackles could be in play here (Kaleb McGary, Dalton Risner, Greg Little, or Tytus Howard).

24. Oakland Raiders - TE Noah Fant

Fant is a nice upgrade on Jared Cook, and this is the range where I expect Fant to come off the board. As a Fant supporter, I'd be happy with this landing spot, but I'm secretly hoping he is drafted by the New England Patriots.

25. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Marquise Brown

The Eagles have already put Nelson Agholor on the trade block, and Brown would be an upgrade on Agholor in all ways. The Oklahoma receiver is considered the only "lock" at the position.

26. Indianapolis Colts - CB Greedy Williams

Williams is reportedly not a lock to be a first-round pick due to some character problems, but I think he's too talented to actually fall to Round 2. 

27. Oakland Raiders - RB Joshua Jacobs

The link between Jacobs and the Raiders is obvious.

28. Los Angeles Chargers - CB Byron Murphy

The Chargers don't have a lot of needs -- offensive tackle is arguably their biggest -- but corner is arguably one of them. 

29. Seattle Seahawks - WR D.K. Metcalf

I know. ... This pairing is questionable, but Metcalf is an athletic freak and we've seen Seattle put a premium on athletes. With that said, I don't think Metcalf is a lock to go in the 1st Round.

30. Green Bay Packers - QB Drew Lock

I believe Lock will end up going higher than this, but I'm just not sure where. So for now, I'll stick with where Jeremiah has mocked him.

31. Los Angeles Rams - DT Dexter Lawrence

Finding a spot for Lawrence was another difficult task, but I'm confident he'll be a first-rounder.

32. New England Patriots - CB Joejuan Williams

I've seen a few national reporters who have made this connection, and I think it would be a great fit.

 

 

NFL Draft Prop Bets

Drew Lock Draft Pick: Over 10.5 at -170

As I mentioned in the mock draft above, I've found it hard to find a landing spot for Lock and so has Jeremiah. I also asked Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer for Lock's draft range and he said it was between 10th and 30th overall. 

Dwayne Haskins Draft Pick: Under 10.5 at -140

My mock didn't include trades, but I'm projecting a team like the Redskins to trade up for Haskins. 10 of the last 11 first-round quarterbacks have been traded up for, and there's an incentive for teams to get ahead of picks No. 10 and 11 with both the Broncos and Bengals being threats to take a quarterback like Haskins. I'm also putting a little faith in the NFL that they won't overthink Haskins who is a 21-year old quarterback from Ohio State who just threw 50 touchdowns in his first college season as starter.

D.K. Metcalf Draft Pick: Over 18.5 at -220

Metcalf was completely left off of NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah's final mock draft, and NFL Media's Lance Zierlein predicted that Metcalf will fall to the 20s. I'm buying all of this, especially since NFL types have called Metcalf a "media creation." Metcalf's health history, lack of production, and this deep wide receiver class are enough to warrant a minor draft slide.

One Wide Receiver in top-15 picks: No at -420

We just ran through my thoughts on Metcalf, and I think the only other wide receiver with even a remote chance here is Marquise Brown, but I'd be absolutely stunned since we didn't get an athletic profile from him. 

Offensive Players (+3.5) vs. Defensive Players at -105

My mock draft had 15 offensive players to 17 defensive players. The media has created a storyline surrounding this defensive line class -- rightfully so -- but there is depth on the offensive line and we're going to have four quarterbacks drafted as well. The key to winning this one is keeping D.K. Metcalf and Joshua Jacobs in Round 1, but Kaleb McGary, Parris Campbell, Irv Smith, Dalton Risner, and other offensive players can counteract Metcalf or Jacobs falling out.

3rd overall pick: Dwayne Haskins at +1000

This requires two things: 1) The Jets have to trade down, and 2) a quarterback-needy team needs to trade up. Luckily, the Jets have expressed interest in moving down and we've seen teams come up for franchise quarterbacks over and over again. If there's a long shot bet I want a part of, this is it. 

 

Reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have any questions about these props or any others you see. 

Hayden Winks