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NFL Draft Betting

Week 12 CFB/DFS Optimizer Standouts

by Eric Froton
Updated On: November 21, 2020, 12:26 pm ET

We had some big DFS wins last week courtesy of the Rotoworld Premium College Football Optimizer. Ty Fryfogle dropped a 46 point explosion, Michael Carter out-performed his 19.2 point projection with 23.2 points and Gary Brightwell rushed for a 112 yards for a total of 16.2 points. 

DFS Optimizer tools are fairly common around the NFL/NHL/NBA/MLB landscape, but only the "sharps" have had access to these tools for college football purposes due to the difficulty associated with collating data on 130-FBS schools. Here at Rotoworld, we personally cull every metric to ensure maximum accuracy while providing customizable tools that allow you to perfectly craft your CFB/DFS lineups.

We will be releasing an instructional video I filmed with the intention of pulling back the curtain to show our users some of the incredible features associated with this new platform. 

It's a one-of-a-kind Rotoworld Premium CFB/DFS resource that you can get for 10% off with the coupon code FROTON10.

 

 

Quarterbacks
 

Feleipe Franks - $6,200 - 24.8 Projected Points = 5th - 4.00 PPT = 1st

Though Arkansas struggled to stop Florida’s high-octane offense last Saturday, the loss can hardly be laid at the feet of Franks who completed 15-of-19 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns against his former team. In fact, despite a pair of underwhelming starts against Georgia and Ole Miss, Franks has been exceptional in piloting wunderkind OC Kendall Briles’ up-tempo offense. Over his last six games, Franks has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five of them, while totaling 15 touchdown passes to only one interception in that time frame. That feat is even more impressive when you consider he’s exclusively playing SEC opponents. Additionally, his two best DFS games came against the upper echelon SEC defenses of Auburn (34.5 points) and Texas A&M (30.7 points). 

This week Franks has the distinct pleasure of hosting a reeling LSU defense that is still searching for an identity following the regime change from Dave Aranda to Bo Pelini. The Tigers are allowing the third most passing yards in the country along with letting up a woeful 33.6 points per game. The national championship team of 2019 is a distant memory, as our Optimizer has Arkansas feasting on LSU for 30.5 points while Franks is projected to score the fifth most points amongst Draft Kings’ main slate quarterbacks while carrying the 17th highest price tag. He’s a cornerstone Super Flex option that will allow you to splurge for a top flight RB/WR combo.

Ken Seals - $4,900 - 19.4 Projected Points = 13th - 3.96 PPT = 2nd

I wrote about the fledgling true freshman Seals earlier in the year,  touting him as a viable bargain basement option who made some really strong throws in Vandy’s opening week 17-12 loss to Texas A&M. Though he didn’t cross the 150-yard threshold in his first three games of his career, his arm talent was palpable and I felt it was just a matter of time before he got his sea legs under him and developed into a viable SEC starting quarterback. 

His maturation process happened even quicker than I expected, as the 21st ranked pro-style quarterback from the 2020 recruiting cycle lived up to his prep billing with back-to-back 300-yard games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State. He still threw four interceptions in those contests, but he completed 31-of-40 passes against Ole Miss with arguably the SEC’s least intimidating wide receiver corps aside from the emerging Cam Johnson. He tightened up that aspect of his game last week against a stout Kentucky defense by completing 21-of-32 passes for 225 yards, two touchdowns, and perhaps most importantly, zero interceptions for only the second time all season. He will be throwing relentlessly against a Florida defensive unit That is letting up an even 30 PPG along with 260 passing yards per game. Obviously Florida is going to take a blowtorch to the Vanderbilt secondary, but that’s not our problem. The Gators can feel free to score all they want, as it puts pressure on Seals and company to play catch up and throw all live-long day.

At $4,900, Ken Seals is the cheapest QB with a pulse for the 12PM DK slate, with the Optimizer loving his Points Per Thousands projection of 3.96. Seals is a super-saver deluxe with 25 point upside if a true shootout develops since HC Derrick Mason will let the true freshman take as many snaps as possible in an effort to get his budding franchise quarterback as many live-action reps as possible to speed-up his maturation process.

Will Howard - $5,300 - 18 Projected Points = 12th - 3.40 PPT = 4th

I’ve seen a lot in my two decades of college fantasy football, but for the life of me I can’t understand why Will Howard would experience a decrease in DFS salary from $5,600-to-$5,300 after lighting up Oklahoma State’s 14th ranked scoring defense to the tune of 29.2 points, which is good for an eye-popping 5.22 Points Per Thousand. Perhaps it is because Howard is also a true freshman like Seals, who despite being a relative neophyte at the collegiate level has posted at least 18 DFS points in three of his last four games. 

With rushing production at a premium for DFS QBs, Howard rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown against TCU as well as 125 yards and a touchdown last week against the aforementioned OSU Cowboys. The Optimizer pegs him right at that 18 point level against Iowa State and I believe there’s even some upward mobility into the 25 point range if things break right. His 3.40 PPT ranks a whopping 4th for this week’s main slate projections. He represents a superb gamble for a minimal investment given his consistency and borderline insulting price tag. 
 

Top 5 Projected Point Scorers

Desmond Ridder - $9,200

Kyle Trask - $9,700

Hendon Hooker - $9,100

Feleipe Franks - $6,200

Running Backs

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. - $5,000 - Kentucky vs. Alabama - 13.2 - Projected Points = 13th - 2.64 PPT = 4th

Ever since a nine carry, 13 yard performance against Auburn in Week 1, Rodriguez Jr. has performed at a pretty consistent level. Over the past six weeks C-Rod has scored at least 9.8 DFS points in five of them, while recording 13.3 points of more in four of those contests. He’s averaged a minimum of 5.3 YPC in every one of those six games while posting six touchdowns in that span. The talented junior has supplanted Asim Rose as the preferred rushing option at UK and his usage has ticked up the past two weeks, receiving 33 carries which he turned into 257 yards and two touchdowns. 

His 3.26 points per thousand average over his last three games places him in elite company, especially considering his $5,000 price tag ranks 24th on this week’s salary chart. The negatives are due to the fact they are playing SEC West bully Alabama, as the Crimson Tide are only allowing 3.8 YPC on the year. However they are also allowing 22 points per game which leaves some room for C-Rod to possibly punch in a TD. Plus UK is such a heavily run-based offense, they tend to slow down their opponents with an old-school grind it approach. His talent level is well worth the investment at $5K, as the Optimizer projects 13.2 points which is pretty a solid showing from a low-priced #2 RB. 

Jerome Ford - Cincinnati @ UCF - $4,900 - 13.1 Projected Points = 14th - 2.65 PPT = 3rd

UCF has a tendency to set the pace for the teams they are playing. They pile up points in dozens, but are also allowing 28.7 PPG and 448 YPG on defense. On the rushing front, they are allowing 189 yards per game on average, but Cincinnati is anything but average.

Ford is on the short side of the Bearcats rushing attack, opposite RB1 Gerrid DoaksIn the past three weeks, he’s posted two games of at least 17.4 fantasy points, with his high water mark of 26.6 coming against Memphis three weeks ago. He has steadily increased his profile as the season has commenced and carved out a greater share of the workload, including receiving high-value red zone carries on a far more regular basis.

Cincinnati is much more likely to keep him involved against a potent offensive foe like UCF than they are against ECU and Houston. The Optimizer is projecting a 35 - 28 score in favor of UC. They will likely need to keep their best players in for the full game, playing into Ford’s hands. The blue-chip Alabama transfer represents a solid lottery ticket RB2 as the 26th priced RB on the main slate salary chart.
 

Mike Epstein - Illinois vs. Nebraska - $4,400 - 15.2 Projected Points = 7th - 3.27 PPT - 1st

Though Illinois’ offense  isn’t going to be confused with the 2019 LSU Tigers, they’re still putting 20 points per game on the board over the last three games, despite starting QB Brandon Peters missing the last three contests. Last week QB Isaiah Williams started and led an option-style attack that racked up 338 yards rushing against Rutgers. 

For his part Epstein has served as their battering ram short-yardage option. In his last three games he is averaging 12 carries and 63 yards per game while scoring a touchdown in all three. His consistent usage in goal line situations presents a safe, high-floor option who is averaging 2.58 points per thousand. Epstein represents a quality high-floor option who just posted a 19.8 point DFS performance against Minnesota two weeks ago.

Top 5 Projected Point Scorers

Travis Etienne - $8,600

Najee Harris - $9,300

Breece Hall - $9,900

Jermar Jefferson - $8,900

Keyon Brooks - $6,100

Wide Receivers

Jordan Addison - VT @ Pitt - $4,900 - 14.8 Projected Points = 9th - 5.25 PPT = 5th

Few FBS wide receivers have been as consistent week in, week out as Addison. Incredibly his production has remained relatively stable even in the wake of starting QB Kenny Pickett’s injury, which he is expected to return from this week against Virginia Tech. In eight games this season, he has recorded at least 12.5 DFS points in seven of them. The reason why he’s been so reliable is the freshman phenom is occupying Maurice Ffrench’s slot-role in OC Mark Whipple’s offense that relies on short, quick throws which allowed Addison to rack up at least seven receptions in six of eight games.

His points per thousand average of 3.07 represents an exceptional value. What’s even more intriguing is he averaged a DK salary of $5,800 per week thus far, though he carries just a $4,900 price tag this week. Incredibly, Addison incredibly ranks just 31st on the 12PM Saturday wide receiver salary chart. You will be hard pressed to find a more bankable receiving option in this week’s main slate, which is reflected in his 5.25 PPT projection. Throw in the fact that seasoned opening game starter Kenny Pickett is expected to return, and you’ve got a cornerstone wide receiver who has the potential to post 20+ points.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette - Iowa vs. Penn State - $4,400 - 14.9 Projected Points = 9th - 3.40 PPT = 3rd

Smith-Marsette started the year off slowly, as first-year Iowa QB Spencer Petras had some opening week growing pains against Purdue. However ISM emerged as a force against Northwestern, catching seven passes for 84 yards while looking like the best player on the field and showcasing the skills that have scouts predicting an NFL future for the talented wideout. He followed that solid showing up with a two catch, 20 yard, one touchdown performance last week in a 35-7 blowout against Minnesota where they leaned heavily on Tyler Goodson to salt the lopsided victory away.

His average salary has been $5,500, which is $1,100 more than this week’s price tag against the Nittany Kittens of Penn State. Close games are greatly to Smith-Marsette’s benefit, as the Optimizer is projecting a 25-23 nailbiter. The more Iowa needs to put the ball in the air, the more points he will score. If the game flow breaks his way, the talented Hawkeye wideout stands an excellent chance at reaching his 14.7 point, 3.39 PPT Optimizer projection, and won’t break the budget as the 45th priced wide receiver on the DK main slate.

Cam Johnson - 14.7 - Vandy vs. Fla. - $4,300 - Projected Points = 11th - 3.42 PPT = 2nd

One of my favorite, underrated wide receivers this season has been Vandy’s WR1, Cam Johnson. His statistical credentials are obvious, as CJ has posted at least 11.7 DFS points in each of his last four games, including elite showings of 23.7 and 24.4 points against Mississippi State and Ole Miss. He has established himself as the clear alpha dog wideout and has developed a rapport with promising young QB Ken Seals. As the pair continues to gel, points will rain from the sky as HC Derrick Mason entrusts Seals with more offensive responsibility.

Though Florida’s offense is devastating, their defense is allowing 30 PPG and 260 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is a mortal lock to be trailing in this game and will be forced to rely on their passing acumen whether they like it or not.

As a result, the Optimizer loves Johnson’s potential to post a slate-leading 3.42 PPT and 14,7 projected points, which I feel is even undercutting his ceiling of 20-25 DFS points. He is astonishingly ranked at 51st on the Draft Kings pricing chart this week, which is borderline insulting considering his high-ceiling, high-floor potential. 

Top 5 Projected Point Scorers

Amari Rodgers - $7,300

Ty Fryfogle - $6,300

Kadarius Toney - $7,400

Devonta Smith - $8,800

Garrett Wilson - $7,900