Before we get to the rankings, I’ve decided to make the “10 Draft Commandments” after doing all of this research:
1) Understand that all of our prospect rankings suck. Even multi-million dollar GMs are bad.
2) Seriously. Everyone sucks at this. Draft Twitter, anonymous scouts, Belichick. All quite bad!
3) With that out of the way… Try to trade down, unless you’re drafting a quarterback.
4) Adjust for positional value. QB > other positions > RB.
5) Athleticism matters more on defense than it does on offense, especially at EDGE.
6) Younger players are typically better. Adjust college production by age.
7) College production matters more at some positions (QB, RB, WR, EDGE, LB).
8) Counting and market share stats are more important than efficiency stats.
9) TFLs and solo tackles are more predictive than sacks for DT, EDGE, and LB prospects.
10) Players on good college teams are usually better. Small school prospects aren’t discounted.
Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)
If you’re curious about the step-by-step process of this project, I outlined it under the Top 300 Big Board on Page 4, but essentially I’m projecting NFL production using college stats, athleticism, and film. That means this is NOT an analytics-only big board. Instead, it’s a big board that combines film grades and analytics, adjusting for positional value of course. That’s why you’ll see QB Jordan Love ranked highly despite not being an analytics quarterback. If I was only using analytics, Love wouldn’t be a top-five quarterback prospect, but ignoring film (or analytics) is a bad process, as the kids say.
Page 1: QB, RB, WR, TE
Page 2: OT, IOL, DT, EDGE
Page 3: LB, CB, S
Page 4: Top 300 Big Board and Methodology
Quarterbacks
How to read this table: “Justin Herbert, an 82nd percentile quarterback prospect, is the QB4 and No. 5 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”
Overall |
Prospect |
Pos |
Percentile |
Notes |
1 |
Joe Burrow |
QB1 |
0.98 |
Ranked 4th-of-179 in my QB database |
2 |
QB2 |
0.93 |
2nd in Total QBR in 2018 and 2019 |
|
4 |
QB3 |
0.91 |
Efficient 21yo passer with rushing ability |
|
5 |
Justin Herbert |
QB4 |
0.82 |
Traits paired with above-avg production |
13 |
QB5 |
0.69 |
Awful numbers, will still be drafted high |
|
24 |
Anthony Gordon |
QB6 |
0.62 |
95th percentile in Total EPA, small arm |
26 |
Jake Fromm |
QB7 |
0.61 |
Below-average stats/traits but smart |
32 |
QB8 |
0.57 |
Big arm but 1 year of average production |
|
174 |
Nathan Stanley |
QB9 |
0.26 |
|
186 |
Steven Montez |
QB10 |
0.25 |
|
201 |
Brian Lewerke |
QB11 |
0.23 |
|
206 |
Shea Patterson |
QB12 |
0.22 |
|
247 |
Cole McDonald |
QB13 |
0.15 |
|
299 |
James Morgan |
QB14 |
0.08 |
For more on the quarterback class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.
Running Backs
How to read this table: “Jonathan Taylor, a 96th percentile running back prospect, is the RB1 and No. 58 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”
Overall |
Prospect |
Pos |
Percentile |
Notes |
58 |
Jonathan Taylor |
RB1 |
0.96 |
3 seasons of 1,975+ RuYDs, 4.39 speed |
64 |
RB2 |
0.95 |
21yo, 161 ToYD/G, most 20+ yard rushes |
|
76 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
RB3 |
0.89 |
21yo, 94 RuYD/G, 55 catches, 4.60 forty |
84 |
D'Andre Swift |
RB4 |
0.82 |
21yo, efficient runner, 73 career catches |
98 |
Cam Akers |
RB5 |
0.76 |
20yo, 14 TDs/30 catches at FSU, 4.47 forty |
128 |
Zack Moss |
RB6 |
0.63 |
|
132 |
AJ Dillon |
RB7 |
0.62 |
|
140 |
Eno Benjamin |
RB8 |
0.56 |
|
179 |
Antonio Gibson |
RB9 |
0.43 |
|
202 |
Ke'Shawn Vaughn |
RB10 |
0.37 |
|
203 |
Lamical Perine |
RB11 |
0.37 |
|
212 |
Darrynton Evans |
RB12 |
0.34 |
|
213 |
Joshua Kelley |
RB13 |
0.33 |
|
230 |
Anthony McFarland |
RB14 |
0.28 |
|
257 |
Michael Warren |
RB15 |
0.21 |
|
287 |
Scottie Phillips |
RB16 |
0.15 |
|
289 |
LeVante Bellamy |
RB17 |
0.14 |
|
292 |
J.J. Taylor |
RB18 |
0.11 |
|
293 |
DeeJay Dallas |
RB19 |
0.11 |
|
294 |
Salvon Ahmed |
RB20 |
0.11 |
|
297 |
Ben LeMay |
RB21 |
0.10 |
For more on the running back class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.
Receivers
How to read this table: “Henry Ruggs, a 96th percentile receiver prospect, is the WR3 and No. 16 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”
Overall |
Prospect |
Pos |
Percentile |
Notes |
8 |
WR1 |
0.98 |
99th percentile production, 15.1 YPT |
|
15 |
WR2 |
0.96 |
96th percentile production at Alabama |
|
16 |
WR3 |
0.96 |
4.27 forty, 13.5 YPT only trails Lamb |
|
19 |
WR4 |
0.95 |
111-1,540-18 as a 20yo, 4.43 forty |
|
31 |
Tee Higgins |
WR5 |
0.88 |
6'4/216, 21yo, 36th percentile athlete |
43 |
WR6 |
0.87 |
66-1,020-12 last year, 90th percentile athlete |
|
46 |
Brandon Aiyuk |
WR7 |
0.83 |
Late bloomer, 12 YPT, above-avg athlete |
48 |
WR8 |
0.83 |
21yo, 6'4/238, elite athlete, productive |
|
52 |
Laviska Shenault |
WR9 |
0.82 |
21yo, big producer/athlete when healthy |
53 |
KJ Hamler |
WR10 |
0.82 |
Small but 20yo and fast, 70 YPG, drops |
66 |
Gabriel Davis |
WR11 |
0.75 |
21yo, 103 YD/G at UCF, average athlete |
69 |
Jalen Reagor |
WR12 |
0.73 |
Bursty, early-age producer but 6.9 YPT |
80 |
Donovan Peoples-Jones |
WR13 |
0.68 |
21yo, only 40 YD/G, 97th percentile athlete |
85 |
Tyler Johnson |
WR14 |
0.67 |
99th percentile market share, iffy athlete |
89 |
Devin Duvernay |
WR15 |
0.66 |
107 YD/G at Texas, 4.39 speed at 5'10/200 |
94 |
Bryan Edwards |
WR16 |
0.65 |
Early SCAR producer, 82 YD/G, foot injury |
97 |
Michael Pittman |
WR17 |
0.63 |
98 YD/G at USC, 4.52 forty at 6'4/223 |
104 |
Isaiah Hodgins |
WR18 |
0.62 |
|
127 |
Antonio Gandy-Golden |
WR19 |
0.57 |
|
159 |
Quez Watkins |
WR20 |
0.47 |
|
170 |
Collin Johnson |
WR21 |
0.42 |
|
172 |
Quintez Cephus |
WR22 |
0.41 |
|
178 |
Omar Bayless |
WR23 |
0.39 |
|
181 |
WR24 |
0.38 |
||
182 |
Marquez Callaway |
WR25 |
0.36 |
|
187 |
Cody White |
WR26 |
0.34 |
|
189 |
Dezmon Patmon |
WR27 |
0.33 |
|
193 |
K.J. Hill |
WR28 |
0.31 |
|
194 |
Freddie Swain |
WR29 |
0.31 |
|
196 |
Quartney Davis |
WR30 |
0.29 |
|
209 |
Jauan Jennings |
WR31 |
0.27 |
|
211 |
James Proche |
WR32 |
0.27 |
|
214 |
Lawrence Cager |
WR33 |
0.25 |
|
227 |
Juwan Johnson |
WR34 |
0.22 |
|
228 |
Binjimen Victor |
WR35 |
0.18 |
|
232 |
Kendrick Rogers |
WR36 |
0.17 |
|
234 |
Darnell Mooney |
WR37 |
0.17 |
|
236 |
Trishton Jackson |
WR38 |
0.16 |
|
249 |
Austin Mack |
WR39 |
0.12 |
|
250 |
Kalija Lipscomb |
WR40 |
0.12 |
|
273 |
John Hightower |
WR41 |
0.08 |
|
276 |
Joe Reed |
WR42 |
0.07 |
|
278 |
K.J. Osborn |
WR43 |
0.06 |
|
282 |
Tyrie Cleveland |
WR44 |
0.05 |
|
285 |
Stephen Guidry |
WR45 |
0.05 |
|
290 |
WR46 |
0.04 |
||
295 |
Lynn Bowden Jr. |
WR47 |
0.03 |
|
298 |
Chris Finke |
WR48 |
0.02 |
For more on the receiver class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.
Tight Ends
How to read this table: “Hunter Bryant, a 83rd percentile tight end prospect, is the TE2 and No. 68 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”
Overall |
Prospect |
Pos |
Percentile |
Notes |
50 |
TE1 |
0.89 |
21yo, 65th percentile athlete, ND baseball |
|
68 |
Hunter Bryant |
TE2 |
0.83 |
21yo, great producer, oddly bad Combine |
72 |
Adam Trautman |
TE3 |
0.81 |
Elite producer at Dayton, agile, avg speed |
77 |
TE4 |
0.75 |
Up-and-down producer, straight-line speed |
|
114 |
Colby Parkinson |
TE5 |
0.68 |
|
124 |
Harrison Bryant |
TE6 |
0.62 |
|
129 |
Brycen Hopkins |
TE7 |
0.59 |
|
135 |
TE8 |
0.56 |
||
152 |
Jacob Breeland |
TE9 |
0.46 |
|
199 |
Josiah Deguara |
TE10 |
0.32 |
|
204 |
Devin Asiasi |
TE11 |
0.31 |
|
222 |
Stephen Sullivan |
TE12 |
0.23 |
|
233 |
Charlie Taumoepeau |
TE13 |
0.18 |
|
235 |
Sean McKeon |
TE14 |
0.17 |
|
243 |
Dalton Keene |
TE15 |
0.14 |
|
272 |
Jared Pinkney |
TE16 |
0.09 |
|
274 |
C.J. O'Grady |
TE17 |
0.07 |
|
291 |
Charlie Woerner |
TE18 |
0.04 |
|
296 |
Dom Wood-Anderson |
TE19 |
0.02 |
|
300 |
Mitchell Wilcox |
TE20 |
0.01 |
For more on the tight end class, read my early reports and statistical evals here, but my stances on these prospects have changed since the NFL Combine.