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Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: March 16, 2020, 5:08 pm ET

Before we get to the rankings, I’ve decided to make the “10 Draft Commandments” after doing all of this research:

1) Understand that all of our prospect rankings suck. Even multi-million dollar GMs are bad. 

2) Seriously. Everyone sucks at this. Draft Twitter, anonymous scouts, Belichick. All quite bad!

3) With that out of the way… Try to trade down, unless you’re drafting a quarterback.

4) Adjust for positional value. QB > other positions > RB.

5) Athleticism matters more on defense than it does on offense, especially at EDGE.

6) Younger players are typically better. Adjust college production by age.

7) College production matters more at some positions (QB, RB, WR, EDGE, LB).

8) Counting and market share stats are more important than efficiency stats.

9) TFLs and solo tackles are more predictive than sacks for DT, EDGE, and LB prospects.

10) Players on good college teams are usually better. Small school prospects aren’t discounted.

 

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

If you’re curious about the step-by-step process of this project, I outlined it under the Top 300 Big Board on Page 4, but essentially I’m projecting NFL production using college stats, athleticism, and film. That means this is NOT an analytics-only big board. Instead, it’s a big board that combines film grades and analytics, adjusting for positional value of course. That’s why you’ll see QB Jordan Love ranked highly despite not being an analytics quarterback. If I was only using analytics, Love wouldn’t be a top-five quarterback prospect, but ignoring film (or analytics) is a bad process, as the kids say.

 

Page 1: QB, RB, WR, TE

Page 2: OT, IOL, DT, EDGE

Page 3: LB, CB, S

Page 4: Top 300 Big Board and Methodology

 

Quarterbacks

How to read this table: “Justin Herbert, an 82nd percentile quarterback prospect, is the QB4 and No. 5 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

1

Joe Burrow

QB1

0.98

Ranked 4th-of-179 in my QB database

2

Tua Tagovailoa

QB2

0.93

2nd in Total QBR in 2018 and 2019

4

Jalen Hurts

QB3

0.91

Efficient 21yo passer with rushing ability

5

Justin Herbert

QB4

0.82

Traits paired with above-avg production

13

Jordan Love

QB5

0.69

Awful numbers, will still be drafted high

24

Anthony Gordon

QB6

0.62

95th percentile in Total EPA, small arm

26

Jake Fromm

QB7

0.61

Below-average stats/traits but smart

32

Jacob Eason

QB8

0.57

Big arm but 1 year of average production

174

Nathan Stanley

QB9

0.26

 

186

Steven Montez

QB10

0.25

 

201

Brian Lewerke

QB11

0.23

 

206

Shea Patterson

QB12

0.22

 

247

Cole McDonald

QB13

0.15

 

299

James Morgan

QB14

0.08

 

 

For more on the quarterback class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

 

 

Running Backs

How to read this table: “Jonathan Taylor, a 96th percentile running back prospect, is the RB1 and No. 58 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

58

Jonathan Taylor

RB1

0.96

3 seasons of 1,975+ RuYDs, 4.39 speed

64

J.K. Dobbins

RB2

0.95

21yo, 161 ToYD/G, most 20+ yard rushes

76

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB3

0.89

21yo, 94 RuYD/G, 55 catches, 4.60 forty

84

D'Andre Swift

RB4

0.82

21yo, efficient runner, 73 career catches

98

Cam Akers

RB5

0.76

20yo, 14 TDs/30 catches at FSU, 4.47 forty

128

Zack Moss

RB6

0.63

 

132

AJ Dillon

RB7

0.62

 

140

Eno Benjamin

RB8

0.56

 

179

Antonio Gibson

RB9

0.43

 

202

Ke'Shawn Vaughn

RB10

0.37

 

203

Lamical Perine

RB11

0.37

 

212

Darrynton Evans

RB12

0.34

 

213

Joshua Kelley

RB13

0.33

 

230

Anthony McFarland

RB14

0.28

 

257

Michael Warren

RB15

0.21

 

287

Scottie Phillips

RB16

0.15

 

289

LeVante Bellamy

RB17

0.14

 

292

J.J. Taylor

RB18

0.11

 

293

DeeJay Dallas

RB19

0.11

 

294

Salvon Ahmed

RB20

0.11

 

297

Ben LeMay

RB21

0.10

 

 

For more on the running back class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

 

 

Receivers

How to read this table: “Henry Ruggs, a 96th percentile receiver prospect, is the WR3 and No. 16 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

8

CeeDee Lamb

WR1

0.98

99th percentile production, 15.1 YPT

15

Jerry Jeudy

WR2

0.96

96th percentile production at Alabama

16

Henry Ruggs

WR3

0.96

4.27 forty, 13.5 YPT only trails Lamb

19

Justin Jefferson

WR4

0.95

111-1,540-18 as a 20yo, 4.43 forty

31

Tee Higgins

WR5

0.88

6'4/216, 21yo, 36th percentile athlete

43

Denzel Mims

WR6

0.87

66-1,020-12 last year, 90th percentile athlete

46

Brandon Aiyuk

WR7

0.83

Late bloomer, 12 YPT, above-avg athlete

48

Chase Claypool

WR8

0.83

21yo, 6'4/238, elite athlete, productive

52

Laviska Shenault

WR9

0.82

21yo, big producer/athlete when healthy

53

KJ Hamler

WR10

0.82

Small but 20yo and fast, 70 YPG, drops

66

Gabriel Davis

WR11

0.75

21yo, 103 YD/G at UCF, average athlete

69

Jalen Reagor

WR12

0.73

Bursty, early-age producer but 6.9 YPT

80

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR13

0.68

21yo, only 40 YD/G, 97th percentile athlete

85

Tyler Johnson

WR14

0.67

99th percentile market share, iffy athlete

89

Devin Duvernay

WR15

0.66

107 YD/G at Texas, 4.39 speed at 5'10/200

94

Bryan Edwards

WR16

0.65

Early SCAR producer, 82 YD/G, foot injury

97

Michael Pittman

WR17

0.63

98 YD/G at USC, 4.52 forty at 6'4/223

104

Isaiah Hodgins

WR18

0.62

 

127

Antonio Gandy-Golden

WR19

0.57

 

159

Quez Watkins

WR20

0.47

 

170

Collin Johnson

WR21

0.42

 

172

Quintez Cephus

WR22

0.41

 

178

Omar Bayless

WR23

0.39

 

181

Van Jefferson

WR24

0.38

 

182

Marquez Callaway

WR25

0.36

 

187

Cody White

WR26

0.34

 

189

Dezmon Patmon

WR27

0.33

 

193

K.J. Hill

WR28

0.31

 

194

Freddie Swain

WR29

0.31

 

196

Quartney Davis

WR30

0.29

 

209

Jauan Jennings

WR31

0.27

 

211

James Proche

WR32

0.27

 

214

Lawrence Cager

WR33

0.25

 

227

Juwan Johnson

WR34

0.22

 

228

Binjimen Victor

WR35

0.18

 

232

Kendrick Rogers

WR36

0.17

 

234

Darnell Mooney

WR37

0.17

 

236

Trishton Jackson

WR38

0.16

 

249

Austin Mack

WR39

0.12

 

250

Kalija Lipscomb

WR40

0.12

 

273

John Hightower

WR41

0.08

 

276

Joe Reed

WR42

0.07

 

278

K.J. Osborn

WR43

0.06

 

282

Tyrie Cleveland

WR44

0.05

 

285

Stephen Guidry

WR45

0.05

 

290

Tony Brown

WR46

0.04

 

295

Lynn Bowden Jr.

WR47

0.03

 

298

Chris Finke

WR48

0.02

 

 

For more on the receiver class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

 

 

Tight Ends

How to read this table: “Hunter Bryant, a 83rd percentile tight end prospect, is the TE2 and No. 68 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

50

Cole Kmet

TE1

0.89

21yo, 65th percentile athlete, ND baseball

68

Hunter Bryant

TE2

0.83

21yo, great producer, oddly bad Combine

72

Adam Trautman

TE3

0.81

Elite producer at Dayton, agile, avg speed

77

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE4

0.75

Up-and-down producer, straight-line speed

114

Colby Parkinson

TE5

0.68

 

124

Harrison Bryant

TE6

0.62

 

129

Brycen Hopkins

TE7

0.59

 

135

Thaddeus Moss

TE8

0.56

 

152

Jacob Breeland

TE9

0.46

 

199

Josiah Deguara

TE10

0.32

 

204

Devin Asiasi

TE11

0.31

 

222

Stephen Sullivan

TE12

0.23

 

233

Charlie Taumoepeau

TE13

0.18

 

235

Sean McKeon

TE14

0.17

 

243

Dalton Keene

TE15

0.14

 

272

Jared Pinkney

TE16

0.09

 

274

C.J. O'Grady

TE17

0.07

 

291

Charlie Woerner

TE18

0.04

 

296

Dom Wood-Anderson

TE19

0.02

 

300

Mitchell Wilcox

TE20

0.01

 

 

For more on the tight end class, read my early reports and statistical evals here, but my stances on these prospects have changed since the NFL Combine.