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Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

by Hayden Winks

March 8, 2020, 6:53 pm ET

Updated On: March 16, 2020, 5:08 pm ET

Before we get to the rankings, I’ve decided to make the “10 Draft Commandments” after doing all of this research:

1) Understand that all of our prospect rankings suck. Even multi-million dollar GMs are bad.

2) Seriously. Everyone sucks at this. Draft Twitter, anonymous scouts, Belichick. All quite bad!

3) With that out of the way… Try to trade down, unless you’re drafting a quarterback.

4) Adjust for positional value. QB > other positions > RB.

5) Athleticism matters more on defense than it does on offense, especially at EDGE.

6) Younger players are typically better. Adjust college production by age.

7) College production matters more at some positions (QB, RB, WR, EDGE, LB).

8) Counting and market share stats are more important than efficiency stats.

9) TFLs and solo tackles are more predictive than sacks for DT, EDGE, and LB prospects.

10) Players on good college teams are usually better. Small school prospects aren’t discounted.

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

If you’re curious about the step-by-step process of this project, I outlined it under the Top 300 Big Board on Page 4, but essentially I’m projecting NFL production using college stats, athleticism, and film. That means this is NOT an analytics-only big board. Instead, it’s a big board that combines film grades and analytics, adjusting for positional value of course. That’s why you’ll see QB Jordan Love ranked highly despite not being an analytics quarterback. If I was only using analytics, Love wouldn’t be a top-five quarterback prospect, but ignoring film (or analytics) is a bad process, as the kids say.

Page 1: QB, RB, WR, TE

Page 2: OT, IOL, DT, EDGE

Page 3: LB, CB, S

Page 4: Top 300 Big Board and Methodology

Quarterbacks

How to read this table: “Justin Herbert, an 82nd percentile quarterback prospect, is the QB4 and No. 5 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall	Prospect	Pos	Percentile	Notes
1	Joe Burrow	QB1	0.98	Ranked 4th-of-179 in my QB database
2	Tua Tagovailoa	QB2	0.93	2nd in Total QBR in 2018 and 2019
4	Jalen Hurts	QB3	0.91	Efficient 21yo passer with rushing ability
5	Justin Herbert	QB4	0.82	Traits paired with above-avg production
13	Jordan Love	QB5	0.69	Awful numbers, will still be drafted high
24	Anthony Gordon	QB6	0.62	95th percentile in Total EPA, small arm
26	Jake Fromm	QB7	0.61	Below-average stats/traits but smart
32	Jacob Eason	QB8	0.57	Big arm but 1 year of average production
174	Nathan Stanley	QB9	0.26
186	Steven Montez	QB10	0.25
201	Brian Lewerke	QB11	0.23
206	Shea Patterson	QB12	0.22
247	Cole McDonald	QB13	0.15
299	James Morgan	QB14	0.08

For more on the quarterback class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

Running Backs

How to read this table: “Jonathan Taylor, a 96th percentile running back prospect, is the RB1 and No. 58 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall	Prospect	Pos	Percentile	Notes
58	Jonathan Taylor	RB1	0.96	3 seasons of 1,975+ RuYDs, 4.39 speed
64	J.K. Dobbins	RB2	0.95	21yo, 161 ToYD/G, most 20+ yard rushes
76	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB3	0.89	21yo, 94 RuYD/G, 55 catches, 4.60 forty
84	D'Andre Swift	RB4	0.82	21yo, efficient runner, 73 career catches
98	Cam Akers	RB5	0.76	20yo, 14 TDs/30 catches at FSU, 4.47 forty
128	Zack Moss	RB6	0.63
132	AJ Dillon	RB7	0.62
140	Eno Benjamin	RB8	0.56
179	Antonio Gibson	RB9	0.43
202	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB10	0.37
203	Lamical Perine	RB11	0.37
212	Darrynton Evans	RB12	0.34
213	Joshua Kelley	RB13	0.33
230	Anthony McFarland	RB14	0.28
257	Michael Warren	RB15	0.21
287	Scottie Phillips	RB16	0.15
289	LeVante Bellamy	RB17	0.14
292	J.J. Taylor	RB18	0.11
293	DeeJay Dallas	RB19	0.11
294	Salvon Ahmed	RB20	0.11
297	Ben LeMay	RB21	0.10

For more on the running back class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

Receivers

How to read this table: “Henry Ruggs, a 96th percentile receiver prospect, is the WR3 and No. 16 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall	Prospect	Pos	Percentile	Notes
8	CeeDee Lamb	WR1	0.98	99th percentile production, 15.1 YPT
15	Jerry Jeudy	WR2	0.96	96th percentile production at Alabama
16	Henry Ruggs	WR3	0.96	4.27 forty, 13.5 YPT only trails Lamb
19	Justin Jefferson	WR4	0.95	111-1,540-18 as a 20yo, 4.43 forty
31	Tee Higgins	WR5	0.88	6'4/216, 21yo, 36th percentile athlete
43	Denzel Mims	WR6	0.87	66-1,020-12 last year, 90th percentile athlete
46	Brandon Aiyuk	WR7	0.83	Late bloomer, 12 YPT, above-avg athlete
48	Chase Claypool	WR8	0.83	21yo, 6'4/238, elite athlete, productive
52	Laviska Shenault	WR9	0.82	21yo, big producer/athlete when healthy
53	KJ Hamler	WR10	0.82	Small but 20yo and fast, 70 YPG, drops
66	Gabriel Davis	WR11	0.75	21yo, 103 YD/G at UCF, average athlete
69	Jalen Reagor	WR12	0.73	Bursty, early-age producer but 6.9 YPT
80	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR13	0.68	21yo, only 40 YD/G, 97th percentile athlete
85	Tyler Johnson	WR14	0.67	99th percentile market share, iffy athlete
89	Devin Duvernay	WR15	0.66	107 YD/G at Texas, 4.39 speed at 5'10/200
94	Bryan Edwards	WR16	0.65	Early SCAR producer, 82 YD/G, foot injury
97	Michael Pittman	WR17	0.63	98 YD/G at USC, 4.52 forty at 6'4/223
104	Isaiah Hodgins	WR18	0.62
127	Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR19	0.57
159	Quez Watkins	WR20	0.47
170	Collin Johnson	WR21	0.42
172	Quintez Cephus	WR22	0.41
178	Omar Bayless	WR23	0.39
181	Van Jefferson	WR24	0.38
182	Marquez Callaway	WR25	0.36
187	Cody White	WR26	0.34
189	Dezmon Patmon	WR27	0.33
193	K.J. Hill	WR28	0.31
194	Freddie Swain	WR29	0.31
196	Quartney Davis	WR30	0.29
209	Jauan Jennings	WR31	0.27
211	James Proche	WR32	0.27
214	Lawrence Cager	WR33	0.25
227	Juwan Johnson	WR34	0.22
228	Binjimen Victor	WR35	0.18
232	Kendrick Rogers	WR36	0.17
234	Darnell Mooney	WR37	0.17
236	Trishton Jackson	WR38	0.16
249	Austin Mack	WR39	0.12
250	Kalija Lipscomb	WR40	0.12
273	John Hightower	WR41	0.08
276	Joe Reed	WR42	0.07
278	K.J. Osborn	WR43	0.06
282	Tyrie Cleveland	WR44	0.05
285	Stephen Guidry	WR45	0.05
290	Tony Brown	WR46	0.04
295	Lynn Bowden Jr.	WR47	0.03
298	Chris Finke	WR48	0.02

For more on the receiver class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

Tight Ends

How to read this table: “Hunter Bryant, a 83rd percentile tight end prospect, is the TE2 and No. 68 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall	Prospect	Pos	Percentile	Notes
50	Cole Kmet	TE1	0.89	21yo, 65th percentile athlete, ND baseball
68	Hunter Bryant	TE2	0.83	21yo, great producer, oddly bad Combine
72	Adam Trautman	TE3	0.81	Elite producer at Dayton, agile, avg speed
77	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE4	0.75	Up-and-down producer, straight-line speed
114	Colby Parkinson	TE5	0.68
124	Harrison Bryant	TE6	0.62
129	Brycen Hopkins	TE7	0.59
135	Thaddeus Moss	TE8	0.56
152	Jacob Breeland	TE9	0.46
199	Josiah Deguara	TE10	0.32
204	Devin Asiasi	TE11	0.31
222	Stephen Sullivan	TE12	0.23
233	Charlie Taumoepeau	TE13	0.18
235	Sean McKeon	TE14	0.17
243	Dalton Keene	TE15	0.14
272	Jared Pinkney	TE16	0.09
274	C.J. O'Grady	TE17	0.07
291	Charlie Woerner	TE18	0.04
296	Dom Wood-Anderson	TE19	0.02
300	Mitchell Wilcox	TE20	0.01

For more on the tight end class, read my early reports and statistical evals here, but my stances on these prospects have changed since the NFL Combine.