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The Numbers Game

Top-200 Haves and Have-Nots

by Ryan Knaus

In a recent podcast with Matt Stroup, we discussed recent fantasy trends including surges from Al Horford and Tobias Harris. That inspired me to take a deeper look at fantasy production for the past month. Which players surprisingly failed to hit the top-200? Has it been easier to find point guards or centers on the waiver wire? And has there been anyone even remotely close to James Harden in January?

 

We'll begin with a breakdown of fantasy values for 8-cat, 9-cat and points leagues. I'm including individual categories, too, which are expressed as z-score values. In short, these aren't actual stats but values representing how well players have done relative to the top-175. A player with a +1.5 in rebounds has the same positive impact in that category, relatively speaking, as a player with a +1.5 in FT%.

 

As usual, my ground rules for rankings are simple. Field goal and free throw percentages are weighted by volume of attempts. I'm excluding anyone who has averaged under 15 minutes or appeared in fewer than five games (for the past month). That eliminated Chris Paul, Robert Covington, Rajon Rondo, Aaron Holiday, Ersan Ilyasova and others who won't be missed. Let’s get to it.

Note: Perusing a list this size isn't the easiest thing in a column, so I'm also posting the table above on Google Sheets. You can download it via the 'File' tab or simply view it online, but either way you'll be able to sort by desired formats or categories. If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW.

 

 

  8-cat 9-cat PTS z-PTS z-3PT z-REB z-AST z-STL z-BLK z-FG% z-FT% z-TO
James Harden 18.31 13.53 69.86 4.85 4.05 1.16 2.35 2.34 0.93 -1.8 4.41 -4.8
Anthony Davis 13.55 13.74 66.30 3.03 -0.4 3.25 0.41 1.4 3.02 0.86 1.95 0.19
Kawhi Leonard 10.63 9.97 52.39 2.89 0.59 0.4 0.47 3.39 -0.6 1.71 1.77 -0.7
Karl-Anthony Towns 10.59 9.94 54.01 1.91 0.38 2.51 0.34 0.21 2.68 0.88 1.66 -0.7
Stephen Curry 10.19 9.25 46.10 2.72 4.22 -0.1 1.13 -0.4 -0.6 1.01 2.26 -0.9
Nikola Jokic 9.39 7.73 54.52 1.83 0.11 2.2 2.42 0.52 0.27 0.94 1.09 -1.7
Joel Embiid 9.29 6.74 55.86 2.5 0.11 2.75 0.29 -0.5 2.86 0.53 0.72 -2.6
Paul George 8.43 8.11 49.81 2.44 2.45 0.66 0.22 3.63 -0.9 -1 0.95 -0.3
Kyrie Irving 8.29 6.60 46.47 1.71 0.88 -0.5 2.43 2.41 -0.3 1.18 0.45 -1.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo 7.30 5.82 54.81 1.96 -0.6 2.42 1.21 1.38 0.96 1.22 -1.3 -1.5
Bradley Beal 7.06 5.13 47.80 2.23 1.85 -0 1.47 1.87 -0 -0.7 0.38 -1.9
Blake Griffin 6.85 4.52 47.56 2.6 1.42 0.41 1.26 0.37 -0.5 0.64 0.68 -2.3
Kevin Durant 6.40 4.92 43.49 1.76 0.81 0.13 0.94 -0.6 1.69 0.49 1.17 -1.5
Damian Lillard 6.33 4.66 42.88 1.7 0.59 -0.6 2.04 1.05 -0.3 -1.2 3.13 -1.7
Jusuf Nurkic 5.95 5.05 44.89 0.43 -1.3 1.97 0.45 0.52 3.35 0.57 -0 -0.9
LaMarcus Aldridge 5.94 5.38 44.15 1.76 -1.2 0.9 0.28 -0.9 1.55 1.74 1.85 -0.6
Russell Westbrook 5.59 2.53 57.24 1.54 -0.2 2.02 4.42 1.2 -0.2 -1.8 -1.3 -3.1
D'Angelo Russell 5.53 4.38 40.83 1.55 2.1 -0.6 1.96 0.67 -0.8 0.17 0.51 -1.2
Rudy Gobert 5.33 5.35 45.39 0.09 -1.3 3 -0 0.37 3.35 1.48 -1.6 0.02
Jimmy Butler 5.09 5.08 40.07 1.09 -0.5 -0.1 0.52 2.44 -0.2 0.59 1.17 -0
Jrue Holiday 5.04 4.31 44.23 1.26 0.45 0.08 1.68 1.28 0.68 0.35 -0.7 -0.7
Tobias Harris 4.97 4.65 39.27 1.23 0.78 0.63 0.15 0.35 0.05 0.35 1.43 -0.3
Nikola Vucevic 4.53 4.20 46.40 1.12 -0.2 2.31 0.41 -0.1 1.26 0.38 -0.7 -0.3
Donovan Mitchell 4.47 3.23 44.28 2.27 1.48 -0.4 1.08 0.67 -0.1 -0.8 0.28 -1.2
Clint Capela 3.83 4.77 43.53 1.07 -1.3 2.66 -0.8 -0.5 0.94 2.17 -0.4 0.94
Klay Thompson 3.74 4.42 34.62 1.47 2.37 -0.8 -0.6 0.56 -0.2 0.95 -0.1 0.69
Julius Randle 3.38 2.13 38.90 1.11 -0.7 1.33 0.28 -0.9 0.17 1.17 0.96 -1.3
Myles Turner 3.20 4.24 34.30 -0.2 0.27 0.63 -0.8 0.3 3.59 0.41 -0.9 1.04
Kyle Lowry 3.15 1.68 35.21 -0.1 0.85 -0.4 2.52 1.23 0.17 -1.8 0.74 -1.5
Al Horford 3.03 2.80 32.04 -0.3 -0.5 0.57 0.31 -0.2 1.48 1.24 0.47 -0.2
Draymond Green 2.72 2.52 34.57 -1.3 -0.6 0.81 2.71 0.77 0.83 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2
Eric Bledsoe 2.70 2.55 35.16 0.42 -0.2 -0.3 1.05 1.74 -0.5 0.02 0.47 -0.1
John Collins 2.69 2.62 36.08 1.05 0.18 1.54 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 2.13 0.1 -0.1
Trae Young 2.23 -0.86 32.87 0.63 0.66 -0.6 1.96 0.06 -0.9 -0.6 1.02 -3.1
Mike Conley 2.18 1.48 33.84 0.78 0.53 -0.9 1.24 1.13 -1.1 -0.4 0.86 -0.7
Buddy Hield 2.08 2.43 31.08 1.19 2.72 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 0.41 0.49 0.36
Luka Doncic 2.07 0.83 43.42 1.34 1.07 0.87 1.5 0.67 -0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.2
Ben Simmons 1.95 -0.37 45.72 0.65 -1.3 1.67 2.77 0.21 0.27 1.08 -3.4 -2.3
Brook Lopez 1.94 2.80 26.29 -0.4 1.21 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 3.76 0.61 -0.2 0.86
Pascal Siakam 1.83 1.60 34.41 0.4 -0.6 1.05 0.06 -0.4 0.01 0.62 0.67 -0.2
Darren Collison 1.72 1.96 28.72 -0.4 -0.1 -1.1 1.59 1.54 -0.9 0.1 1.03 0.23
Steven Adams 1.45 1.22 34.79 -0 -1.3 1.67 -0.5 1.28 0.14 2.05 -1.8 -0.2
Malcolm Brogdon 1.29 1.79 29.77 0.41 -0.6 -0.5 0.11 -0.1 -0.5 0.95 1.46 0.5
Thaddeus Young 1.26 1.40 30.70 -0.1 -0.5 0.57 -0.4 1.38 -0.3 1.34 -0.7 0.14
Derrick White 1.24 1.32 29.61 0.11 -0.4 -0.5 0.25 0.2 0.3 1.49 -0.2 0.07
Rudy Gay 1.15 0.88 30.77 0.24 -0.8 0.28 -0.1 0.06 -0.2 0.74 0.86 -0.3
Andre Drummond 1.09 0.49 38.65 -0 -1.3 2.9 -1 2.2 0.36 0.03 -2 -0.6
Lou Williams 1.08 0.32 35.15 0.94 -0 -0.6 1.44 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 1.7 -0.8
Jarrett Allen 1.06 1.42 30.53 -0.7 -1.3 1.77 -1 -0.7 2.28 0.54 0.22 0.36
Jerami Grant 1.04 2.21 29.99 0.02 -0.2 -0.1 -1 0.2 1.93 0.25 0.03 1.17
Lauri Markkanen 1.04 1.39 31.64 0.45 1.14 0.95 -1.2 -0.5 0.54 -0.7 0.45 0.36
Devin Booker 1.01 -1.91 32.92 1.57 0.15 -1 1.21 -1.3 -1.1 0.1 1.27 -2.9
Dewayne Dedmon 1.01 1.25 27.52 -0.3 0.24 0.48 -0.6 -0.5 0.85 0.27 0.65 0.24
Kris Dunn 0.96 -0.11 29.66 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 1.57 1.74 0.14 -0.9 0.32 -1.1
Deandre Ayton 0.87 1.06 32.49 0.09 -1.3 1.3 -0.9 -0.2 0.86 0.79 0.22 0.19
Zach LaVine 0.87 -0.62 31.99 1.19 0.38 -0.5 0.1 0.06 -0.9 -0.4 1.03 -1.5
J.J. Redick 0.83 1.12 26.78 0.84 2.27 -1.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2 0.97 0.29
Marc Gasol 0.78 -0.32 34.98 -0 -0.2 1.26 0.97 -0.7 0.43 -0.5 -0.5 -1.1
Kemba Walker 0.66 -0.74 34.39 1.07 1.07 -0.5 0.73 -0.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.2 -1.4
Tomas Satoransky 0.66 0.35 30.70 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 1.66 1.38 -1.1 -0 -0.4 -0.3
De'Aaron Fox 0.59 -0.90 32.47 0.24 -0.5 -0.7 1.28 1.87 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 -1.5
Nicolas Batum 0.48 0.50 24.99 -0.7 0.32 -0.1 -0 0.21 0.14 -0 0.64 0.02
Marcus Smart 0.46 0.65 24.09 -0.7 0.87 -1 0.38 1.13 -0.3 -0.2 0.19 0.19
DeMarcus Cousins 0.44 0.27 31.40 0.13 -0.2 0.51 0.22 -0.4 -0.1 0.12 0.07 -0.2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 0.33 -0.58 29.31 0.03 0.32 -0.5 0.77 1.13 -0.8 -1 0.39 -0.9
Aaron Gordon 0.04 -0.35 33.79 0.49 0.04 0.82 0.48 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 -0.4
Lonzo Ball 0.01 -0.74 32.50 -0.6 0.59 0.16 1.89 1.13 -0.3 -1.1 -1.9 -0.8
Jayson Tatum -0.02 0.20 29.44 0.24 0.01 -0 -0.6 -0.5 0.8 -0.8 0.78 0.23
Nikola Mirotic -0.05 0.90 25.73 -0 1.69 -0.3 -0.9 -1.5 1.21 -0.7 0.47 0.94
Otto Porter -0.05 0.46 28.63 0.06 0.66 -0 -0.6 1.21 -0.5 -0.9 0.07 0.5
P.J. Tucker -0.06 0.79 25.16 -1 0.27 -0 -0.7 2.63 0.05 -0.8 -0.5 0.85
Jeff Teague -0.08 -0.78 28.80 -0.5 -0.3 -1 2.01 1.4 -0.7 -0 -0.9 -0.7
Montrezl Harrell -0.16 -0.01 31.71 0.31 -1.3 0.54 -0.6 -0.2 0.68 1.57 -1.1 0.15
Trevor Ariza -0.20 0.03 31.48 0.12 0.96 0.18 0.6 0.23 -0.8 -1.5 -0 0.23
Danny Green -0.21 1.11 23.71 -0.5 1.33 -0.4 -0.9 0.06 0.39 -0.3 0.09 1.32
Danilo Gallinari -0.21 -0.34 28.87 0.39 1.12 -0.2 -0 0.06 -1 -0.9 0.37 -0.1
Victor Oladipo -0.24 -0.53 31.92 0.43 0.42 -0.6 0.73 1.42 -1 -1.3 -0.3 -0.3
DeMar DeRozan -0.26 -2.69 36.34 0.28 -1.3 0.65 1.71 0.45 -0.2 -1.4 -0.4 -2.4
Kelly Oubre Jr. -0.32 -0.57 28.43 0.25 0.35 -0.3 -0.8 0.06 0.91 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3
Danuel House -0.33 0.01 21.49 -0.5 0.95 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 0.21 -0.2 1.26 0.34
Richaun Holmes -0.33 0.88 25.40 -0.6 -1.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.3 1.7 1.38 -0.1 1.2
DeAndre Jordan -0.36 -0.93 31.21 -0.6 -1.3 2.54 -0.7 -0.9 0.94 1.26 -1.5 -0.6
Al-Farouq Aminu -0.36 0.83 27.69 -0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.47 1.2
C.J. McCollum -0.48 -0.04 30.89 0.89 1.14 -0.5 0.06 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 0.09 0.44
Davis Bertans -0.54 0.51 21.65 -0.7 1.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.25 -0.2 1.05
Eric Gordon -0.55 -0.45 27.31 0.81 1.96 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 -0.9 -1.3 0.65 0.1
Willie Cauley-Stein -0.56 0.13 31.99 -0.5 -1.3 1.31 -0 0.98 -0.1 0.26 -1.1 0.69
Khris Middleton -0.59 -1.16 30.17 0.31 0.32 -0 0.62 -0.2 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6
Domantas Sabonis -0.62 -0.03 31.05 0.12 -1.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 1.06 -0 0.6
Kevon Looney -0.68 0.64 25.64 -1.1 -1.3 0.6 -0.5 0.23 0.82 0.81 -0.2 1.32
Jamal Murray -0.73 -1.13 29.77 0.62 1.11 -0.6 0.72 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 0.15 -0.4
Terrence Ross -0.73 0.04 26.13 0.16 1.37 -0.6 -0.6 0.06 -0.5 -1 0.32 0.78
Thomas Bryant -0.77 0.01 25.72 -0.4 -0.7 0.82 -0.9 -1.1 0.1 1.46 0.01 0.78
Josh Richardson -0.77 -0.09 27.38 0.08 0.67 -0.9 0.58 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 0.89 0.68
Joe Ingles -0.86 -1.68 25.62 -0.6 0.32 -0.6 1.22 0.06 -0.5 -1.1 0.36 -0.8
T.J. Warren -0.95 -0.27 27.58 0.29 0.03 -0.6 -0.7 0.77 -0.3 -0.6 0.23 0.68
Marvin Williams -0.97 0.14 24.85 -0.6 0.93 -0 -0.7 0.21 0.14 -1 0 1.11
Bam Adebayo -1.03 -0.98 23.91 -0.9 -1.3 0.18 -0.4 0.23 0.39 0.77 0.05 0.05
Jaren Jackson Jr. -1.07 -0.96 25.21 -0 -0.7 -0.3 -1.1 -0.2 0.68 0.28 0.38 0.12
Justise Winslow -1.09 -1.58 29.47 0.02 0.22 -0.1 0.98 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -0.9 -0.5
Mikal Bridges -1.19 0.10 21.29 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 1.26 0.21 -0.2 0.02 1.29
Serge Ibaka -1.21 -1.35 30.46 0.27 -0.8 0.95 -1 -1.2 0.81 0.43 -0.8 -0.1
Patrick Beverley -1.21 -0.43 25.16 -1.2 0.01 0.32 0.28 -0.1 0.55 -0.6 -0.5 0.78
Elfrid Payton -1.26 -2.29 24.87 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 1.44 0.72 -0.6 -0.6 0.1 -1
Jaylen Brown -1.27 -0.96 25.01 0.01 0.21 -0.4 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.24 -0.3 0.31
Mitchell Robinson -1.30 0.65 23.07 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -1.4 0.06 3.49 1.69 -2 1.95
Kevin Huerter -1.30 -2.02 25.69 -0.1 1.03 -0.8 0.23 0.45 -0.5 -1.2 -0.4 -0.7
Andre Iguodala -1.32 -0.09 24.52 -1.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.34 0.56 0.82 0.24 -1 1.23
Enes Kanter -1.38 -1.07 33.20 0.06 -1.1 2.31 -0.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.62 -0.9 0.31
De'Anthony Melton -1.39 -1.43 20.67 -1.6 -0.8 -1 0.45 1.71 0.53 -0.7 0.05 -0
Kyle Kuzma -1.42 -2.76 30.98 0.99 0.69 0.12 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3
Marco Belinelli -1.43 -0.74 20.57 -0.1 1.07 -1.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 1.5 0.69
Jordan Clarkson -1.54 -1.62 25.11 0.26 0.59 -1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Luke Kornet -1.55 -0.48 21.30 -0.7 0.47 -0.8 -0.8 0.33 0.21 -0.5 0.26 1.07
Ante Zizic -1.56 -0.49 26.26 -0.3 -1.3 0.93 -1.1 -1 -0.1 0.94 0.43 1.07
Cedi Osman -1.56 -1.88 24.73 0.07 0.53 -0.7 -0.4 0.35 -0.9 0.02 -0.5 -0.3
Kenneth Faried -1.61 -1.00 31.53 -0.2 -1.1 1.38 -1.1 0.06 1.21 0.65 -2.6 0.61
Malik Beasley -1.62 -0.38 20.89 -0.1 1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.66 0.22 1.25
Hassan Whiteside -1.69 -1.50 31.77 -0.5 -1.3 2.07 -1.1 -1 1.93 1.44 -3.3 0.19
Alec Burks -1.70 -1.16 24.57 -0.5 0.08 -0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.5 0.36 0.54
Brandon Ingram -1.71 -3.37 32.89 0.77 -1 0.23 0.48 -0.9 -0.3 0.47 -1.6 -1.7
Emmanuel Mudiay -1.71 -3.28 27.57 0.32 -0.5 -0.7 0.58 -0.2 -0.8 -1 0.5 -1.6
T.J. McConnell -1.71 -1.36 23.03 -1.2 -1.2 -1 1.05 1.28 -0.5 0.23 -0.4 0.36
Jahlil Okafor -1.72 -0.95 24.66 -0.6 -1.3 0.57 -1.2 -1.4 1.25 1.46 -0.5 0.78
Ricky Rubio -1.73 -2.13 24.53 -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 0.78 -0.5 -1 -0.2 0.56 -0.4
Kyle Anderson -1.76 -1.87 26.08 -0.8 -1 -0.3 0.29 0.06 1.14 0.84 -2.1 -0.1
DeAndre' Bembry -1.77 -2.50 23.17 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 1.44 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7
Fred VanVleet -1.78 -1.37 23.97 -0.5 0.29 -0.8 0.94 -0.9 -0.6 -0.9 0.78 0.41
Patty Mills -1.80 -1.42 20.97 -0.5 0.85 -1.2 0.22 -0.1 -1.1 -0.2 0.26 0.38
Shabazz Napier -1.85 -2.16 23.34 -0.3 0.66 -1.1 0.03 0.56 -0.6 -1.2 0.12 -0.3
JaMychal Green -1.87 -1.80 22.97 -0.6 -0.1 0.28 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -0 -0.1 0.07
Marcus Morris -1.91 -1.14 24.69 -0.3 0.45 0.08 -1 -0.5 0.01 -0.8 0.13 0.78
Jabari Parker -1.93 -0.89 23.09 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.99 -0.1 1.04
Taj Gibson -1.94 -1.58 23.11 -0.5 -1.3 0.51 -1 -1.2 0.01 1.19 0.39 0.36
Spencer Dinwiddie -1.94 -3.09 24.07 0.29 0.15 -1.2 0.5 -1.1 -1 -0.5 0.95 -1.1
Wilson Chandler -1.98 -1.10 19.95 -1.2 0.15 -0.4 -0.5 0.26 -0 -0.4 0.08 0.88
Jeremy Lamb -2.03 -1.57 25.55 -0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 0.54 0.46
Derrick Favors -2.03 -0.92 26.59 -0.5 -1.1 0.72 -1.1 -0.7 1.21 0.27 -0.7 1.11
Tyus Jones -2.05 -1.27 23.39 -1 -0.7 -1.4 1.71 0.6 -1 -0.9 0.63 0.78
Mario Hezonja -2.11 -1.59 22.96 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -1 2.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.51
Terry Rozier -2.11 -1.33 23.10 -0.8 0.21 -0.4 0.31 0.06 -0.7 -1 0.32 0.78
Joe Harris -2.13 -2.53 22.70 -0.2 0.59 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 0.39 -0.4
Tristan Thompson -2.15 -1.67 27.25 -0.8 -1.3 1.37 -0.4 -0.5 -0 -0.5 0.01 0.48
Jeff Green -2.22 -2.08 22.25 -0.1 0.81 -0.6 -0.4 -1.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.41 0.14
Corey Brewer -2.23 -1.69 21.90 -0.9 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 2.63 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.54
Andrew Wiggins -2.30 -3.12 33.81 1.22 0.18 0.03 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -1.1 -0.8
Mason Plumlee -2.33 -1.79 23.31 -0.9 -1.3 0.06 0.05 -0.8 0.18 1.31 -0.9 0.54
Ivica Zubac -2.34 -1.98 21.73 -0.4 -1.3 0.21 -1.1 -1.9 0.27 1.19 0.81 0.36
Josh Jackson -2.35 -3.11 25.43 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.44 -0.7 -0.4 -0.8
Noah Vonleh -2.41 -2.12 25.85 -0.9 -0.6 1.17 -0.7 -0.1 0.21 -0.4 -1 0.29
Derrick Rose -2.42 -1.84 26.53 0.43 -0.7 -1 0.58 -1.7 -0.9 -0.6 1.49 0.58
Wendell Carter Jr. -2.43 -1.65 22.49 -1 -1.2 0.41 -0.9 0.06 -0.1 -0.3 0.51 0.78
Dwyane Wade -2.46 -3.44 25.98 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 1.03 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -1
Dennis Smith Jr. -2.47 -3.45 23.26 -0.3 -0 -1.2 0.48 0.86 -1 -0.6 -0.7 -1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -2.47 -1.86 21.60 -0.3 0.32 -0.8 -0.6 0.21 -1.2 -0.5 0.45 0.61
Delon Wright -2.56 -1.52 19.53 -1 -0.7 -1.1 -0.3 0.72 -0.3 0.1 0.14 1.05
Bryn Forbes -2.57 -1.87 20.22 -0.4 1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.2 -0.6 0.47 0.7
Royce O'Neale -2.59 -1.48 18.20 -1.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 0.06 -0.1 0.02 0.17 1.11
Reggie Jackson -2.63 -2.17 22.90 -0.3 0.53 -0.9 0.25 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 0.18 0.46
Bojan Bogdanovic -2.66 -1.88 25.31 0.17 0.15 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 -0.8 0.42 0.78
Alex Len -2.66 -2.39 26.64 -0.3 -1 0.62 -1 -0.9 0.94 0.14 -1.2 0.27
Nerlens Noel -2.71 -1.25 17.94 -1.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.4 0.06 0.99 0.75 0.05 1.46
Tim Hardaway Jr. -2.73 -1.85 24.11 0.15 0.68 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1 -1.3 0.82 0.88
D.J. Augustin -2.76 -3.00 20.95 -0.4 0.33 -1.3 0.54 -0.7 -1.2 -0.2 0.09 -0.2
Norman Powell -2.78 -1.92 18.71 -0.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.06 -0.4 0.3 0.03 0.86
Jonathan Isaac -2.80 -1.80 20.64 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 0.79 -0.6 0.21 1
Harrison Barnes -2.81 -2.12 23.89 0.26 1 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -2 1.28 0.69
Darius Miller -2.88 -1.85 17.99 -0.8 0.87 -1.3 -0.8 -0.7 0.27 -0.6 0.11 1.03
Evan Fournier -2.92 -3.17 22.65 -0 0.23 -1.1 -0 -0.3 -1.2 -0.7 0.14 -0.3
Tyler Johnson -3.01 -2.72 21.11 -0.7 0.27 -1.1 -0 0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 0.29
Paul Millsap -3.02 -2.17 24.31 -0.6 -0.9 0.35 -0.8 0.49 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 0.85
Austin Rivers -3.02 -2.01 21.83 -0.6 0.59 -1.1 0.15 -0.5 -0.3 -0.9 -0.4 1.01
Maxi Kleber -3.03 -1.98 16.25 -1.4 -0.1 -0.4 -1.3 -0.8 0.82 0.05 0.18 1.05
Will Barton -3.04 -2.70 22.99 -0.3 0.35 -0.3 -0.1 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.34
Moe Harkless -3.07 -2.15 18.23 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1 -0.2 0.68 -0 0.11 0.92
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -3.09 -3.49 19.17 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 0.12 0.49 -0.4 -0.6 0.63 -0.4
Reggie Bullock -3.09 -2.57 21.16 -0.3 1.35 -0.9 -0 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 0.15 0.52
Gerald Green -3.13 -2.20 19.41 -0.4 1.3 -0.9 -1.1 -1.4 0.18 -0.9 0.04 0.93
Jeremy Lin -3.13 -3.89 21.51 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 0.72 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.88 -0.8
Terrance Ferguson -3.13 -1.94 17.65 -0.7 1 -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.05 -0.5 1.2
Rodney Hood -3.16 -2.09 19.23 -0.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.9 -1 1.43 1.07
Marvin Bagley III -3.16 -3.21 25.91 -0.2 -1.1 0.62 -1.2 -0.6 0.49 0.07 -1.2 -0
Bismack Biyombo -3.16 -2.14 20.88 -1.2 -1.3 0.67 -1.2 -1.3 0.94 0.62 -0.4 1.03
Gordon Hayward -3.25 -3.48 21.56 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 0.13 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2
Josh Hart -3.27 -2.91 21.51 -1.1 -0.3 0.08 -0.5 0.06 0.14 -1.4 -0.2 0.36
Torrey Craig -3.30 -2.36 20.19 -1.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.18 -0.1 -0.7 0.93
Jae Crowder -3.30 -3.03 23.37 -0.3 0.93 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -1.5 -0.8 0.27
Aron Baynes -3.35 -2.91 17.27 -1.3 -0.9 -0.1 -1.1 -1.8 1.21 0.12 0.51 0.44
Bobby Portis -3.36 -2.69 23.62 -0.2 -0 0.42 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.6 0.17 0.67
Dorian Finney-Smith -3.36 -2.59 18.95 -1.2 -0.4 -0.1 -1.1 0.52 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 0.78
Nemanja Bjelica -3.44 -2.48 20.48 -1.2 -0.3 0.05 -0.5 -0.9 0.24 -0.7 -0.2 0.96
Derrick Jones -3.45 -2.38 19.05 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.3 0.06 -0.1 0.64 -0.8 1.07
Seth Curry -3.47 -2.53 15.64 -0.9 0.38 -1.3 -1 -0.4 -0.5 0.07 0.17 0.94
Allonzo Trier -3.53 -3.34 17.58 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 1.34 0.19
E'Twaun Moore -3.56 -3.02 16.95 -0.8 -0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 0 0.53 0.54
JaVale McGee -3.62 -3.18 22.46 -0.9 -1.3 0.62 -1.2 -1.5 1.35 0.35 -1 0.44
Jake Layman -3.69 -2.28 18.51 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -1 -1.6 -0.6 0.66 0.3 1.41
Sterling Brown -3.76 -3.08 15.98 -1.1 0.11 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 -1 0.33 0 0.68
Ed Davis -3.82 -3.21 22.06 -1.3 -1.3 1.56 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 -1.4 0.61
Dennis Schroder -3.83 -3.68 22.68 -0.2 0.14 -1.1 0.35 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 0.11 0.15

 

Kawhi Leonard's owners have been frustrated by continual DNPs, including four straight games in January, but that per-game value is the reason you put up with him. Beyond Harden and AD, nobody has exceeded Kawhi on a per-game basis for 8-cat or 9-cat value -- he barely edges out Karl-Anthony Towns for the No. 3 spot. Bradley Beal, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jusuf Nurkic, D’Angelo Russell and Myles Turner are also players who stand out with elite value in January. Donovan Mitchell shouldn’t be a surprise but after his rocky start to the year, it’s nice to see him where he belongs as a top-30 fantasy stud.

 

This list is an easy way to hunt for specialist value, too, by simply looking toward the end of the chart for players with above-average output. Corey Brewer has offered strong steals value lately, though I don’t anticipate that continuing with Jimmy Butler (wrist) back in action. Mitchell Robinson is about as good a source of blocks and FG% as you could expect off the waiver wire, and I do think he can keep it up. The Knicks have consigned Enes Kanter to irrelevance and all signs point to Robinson playing as many minutes as he can rest-of-season…his rampant foul trouble is the obvious caveat.

 

I’m going to pivot, though, and talk about some players who are not on the list. Falling outside the top-200 cut-off are guys like Gary Harris, Wesley Matthews, Taurean Prince, Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Knox. Let's discuss the reasons why they haven't lived up to expectations in recent weeks.

 

Gary Harris has simply been slow to get going after returning from a lengthy hamstring injury, with his minutes slowly creeping up, so it was great to see him log 31 minutes vs. Memphis on Monday. Despite the poor production in recent weeks, he's an obvious 'hold' in almost any situation. This is a guy who hit top-40 value last season with averages of 17.5 points, 2.3 triples, 2.6 boards, 2.9 assists, 1.8 steals, strong percentages and low turnovers. He may not reach those heights with Denver's roster near full strength (especially if/when Isaiah Thomas returns) but I'll be shocked if he doesn't finish as a top-100 value at worst.

 

Wesley Matthews' per-game value has decreased ever since his Achilles surgery and subsequent move to Dallas. It's still impressive that he's averaged a modest 10.7 DNPs in the past three years, but he's been outside the top-100 that whole time and isn't even hitting top-150 this year. He's playing nearly four fewer minutes per game, taking fewer shots, and averaging slightly fewer 3-pointers (-0.2), rebounds (-0.8), assists (-0.4) and steals (-0.4). None of those categories on their own would ruin his fantasy appeal, but add it up and there's not much left to distinguish him from another flavor-of-the-week free agent.

 

Taurean Prince, whom I traded Thomas Bryant to acquire in a 30-team league this week (from Steve Alexander), has also been a big disappointment. Here are his splits from post-All-Star break last season: 19.0 points (44.3% FGs, 89.2% FTs), 3.2 triples, 4.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.5 blocks. He was a top-30 roto value in that span. His usage this year has fallen by over 5% from that red-hot stretch last year, and he's taken a backseat to John Collins, Trae Young and even DeAndre Bembry. He's just 25 years old with a rookie-scale deal that will make him a restricted FA in 2020-21, which is why I was doubly surprised to see him mentioned as a player Atlanta is willing to trade. As an owner, I'm hoping for him to stay with the Hawks through the deadline and find a groove in a bench role -- he's shooting 40.3% from the field and 71.4% from the line the past month, so if he can bump up those numbers his overall value will spike in a hurry.

 

Larry Nance Jr. was cruising for a few weeks before he sprained his right MCL. He's averaging just 21.0 minutes since his return and that's on a roster missing Tristan Thompson (sore left foot) and Kevin Love (left foot surgery) -- you'd think Nance would be perfectly positioned to crush for fantasy owners as a source of rebounds, FG% and defensive stats. He's a player that has much higher appeal in category-based leagues, vs. points leagues, because he can chip in some steals and blocks with 4-of-6 shooting to salvage a line that otherwise won't impress. I'm keeping the faith in competitive leagues with 12 or more owners.

 

Kevin Knox is 19 years old. We should start with that fact, which should immediately lower expectations. His fantasy shortcomings have been glaring lately, with January averages of 0.3 blocks, 0.7 steals and 0.8 assists. He's shooting 36.6% from the field and collecting just 4.0 rebounds -- the only category in which he's consistently helping is 3-pointers, and even that has been a modest 1.5 per game. There's no reason to think his game will 'click' late in his rookie season, and if anything he could decline further as the grind of an 82-game season catches up to him. I haven't added him in any leagues this season, and I don't intend to start in February.

 

Other notable players who have failed to hit top-200 value in January include Dario Saric, Harry Giles, Tyreke Evans, Kelly Olynyk, Mo Bamba and Josh Okogie.

 

I'll conclude with a few different cuts of data that I found interesting. The first is the breakdown of positions within the top-175. I'm basing this on single-position eligibility, using each player's primary position, so results will vary depending upon your league's settings.

 

PG

44

SG

41

SF

49

PF

32

C

34

 

And here is an advanced look at my planned topic for next week: correlations. Below is a deceptively simple table with powerful implications.

 

Correlation: Usage Rates to Fantasy Values

League Type

Correlation Coefficient

Strength/Direction

8-cat

0.6003

Moderate/Strong Positive

9-cat

0.4577

Moderate Positive

Points Leagues

0.7069

Strong/Very Strong Positive

 

The oft-cited 'usage rate' proves to be only moderately meaningful as an indicator of 9-cat value, whereas it's a strong or very strong indicator for points leagues. This means that as usage rates increase, so do points-league values. There is a positive correlation for all three league types (when usage increases, fantasy values tend to also increase) but it's only a 'moderate' relationship in 9-cat leagues. This makes sense intuitively, because low-usage guys don't turn the ball over very often and therefore get a boost in the opposite direction. It's an important distinction to remember when you hear usage discussed for fantasy purposes.

 

If you have any questions or comments, let me know with a message on Twitter. Good luck this week!

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.