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Odds and Ends

2019 First NFL Coach to be Fired Odds

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: August 30, 2019, 1:00 pm ET

Over the last decade, the first NFL head coach to be fired has been let go on average by Week 9, so we definitely want to pay attention to the early part of the schedule, not the entire schedule. But we also want to factor in each team’s bye week (this is a common time for a coach to be fired, so Week 6 or so is ideal), who hired the coach (is there a reason why a coach has a longer leash), and how bad the team really is (coaches are often fired when their winning percentage is below .200). All of that info is laid out in the chart below:

 

First NFL Coach to be Fired Odds

Coach

Odds

Win Total

SOS Thru Week 9

Bye Week

Jay Gruden - Redskins

+300

6

18

10

Pat Shurmur - Giants

+700

6

6

11

Matt Patricia - Lions

+1000

6.5

14

5

Bill O’Brien - Texans

+1200

8.5

31

10

Dan Quinn - Falcons

+1200

8.5

27

9

Doug Marrone - Jaguars

+1500

8

20

10

Jason Garrett - Cowboys

+1500

9

3

8

Mike Zimmer - Vikings

+1500

9

9

12

Adam Gase - Jets

+2000

7

30

4

Brian Flores - Dolphins

+2000

4.5

25

5

Mike Tomlin - Steelers

+2000

9

21

7

Ron Rivera - Panthers

+2000

7.5

5

7

Kliff Kingsbury - Cardinals

+3000

5

7

12

Anthony Lynn - Chargers

+3000

9.5

8

12

Freddie Kitchens - Browns

+3000

9.5

28

7

Mike Vrabel - Titans

+3000

8

16

11

Sean McDermott - Bills

+3500

6.5

2

6

Kyle Shanahan - 49ers

+3500

8

4

4

Matt LaFleur - Packers

+4000

9

26

11

Pete Carroll - Seahawks

+4000

8.5

19

11

Vic Fangio - Broncos

+5000

7

32 (Hardest)

10

Bruce Arians - Buccaneers

+5000

6.5

22

7

John Harbaugh - Ravens

+5000

8.5

11

8

Jon Gruden - Raiders

+5000

6.5

29

6

Zac Taylor - Bengals

+7500

6

13

9

Frank Reich - Colts

+7500

7

23

6

Matt Nagy - Bears

+7500

9.5

24

6

Sean Payton - Saints

+10000

10.5

15

9

Andy Reid - Chiefs

+10000

10.5

12

12

Doug Pederson - Eagles

+10000

9.5

10

10

Sean McVay - Rams

+10000

10.5

17

9

Bill Belichick - Patriots

+15000

11

1 (Easiest)

10

 

Winks’ Top 3 Best Bets

1. Jay Gruden (+300 or 25% odds) 

Win Total: 6 (tied for 3rd worst)

SOS Thru Week 9: 18th

Bye Week: 10

RotoPat’s Coach Ranking: 20th

Gruden’s outlook is no bueno. First off, the Redskins have been to the playoffs just once under Gruden, and he was bounced in the 2015 Wild Card Round. Since then, Gruden has floated around .500, which is a recipe for being fired eventually. That “eventually” is now. The Redskins drafted a rookie quarterback (Dwayne Haskins) this offseason -- which is a good sign that the Redskins are pressing restart -- and they’re going to be without arguably their best player in Trent Williams. So we just need a poor start to the season for this to cash, and well… it’s very possible the Redskins start 0-5 (the Redskins have the 5th toughest schedule through five weeks). Case Keenum isn’t beating the Eagles on the road, and he should be a home dog with the Cowboys and Bears coming to town. At this point, Gruden’s seat will be on fire, and he still has to go on the road to face the Giants before hosting the Patriots. Yikes. Throw in a “last straw” road game against the Dolphins, and we can kiss Gruden goodbye within just a few weeks. 

2. Kyle Shanahan (+3500 or 3% odds)

Win Total: 8 (tied for 14th worst)

SOS Thru Week 9: 4th easiest

Bye Week: 4

RotoPat’s Coach Ranking: 15th

Does Shanahan actually deserve to be fired? Not really. But it’s easier to say that on the outside and not when you’re the owner or GM, who are looking for results now since it’s Year 3. Through two seasons in San Francisco, Shanahan is 10-22 (.313), and this roster is still below average while playing in a tough division. Not a great recipe for Shanny to keep his job, and he’ll be put to the test early in 2019. The Niners open the season going across the country back-to-back weeks (@TB, @CIN) before hosting the Steelers. They’ll likely be 1-2. Maybe 0-3 going into their early bye week. Is that enough time to get Shanahan fired? Perhaps, but the schedule doesn’t open up after the bye either with the Browns and Rams up next. At this point, I’d be surprised if both Shanahan and Lynch were employed, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo can’t trust his knee to begin the season, which is what we’ve seen in training camp and in the preseason. If Shanahan is gone, it should happen early on, something we need with Jay Gruden likely gone by the mid-point of the season.

Rotoworld

3. Pat Shurmur (+700 or 13% odds)

Win Total: 6 (tied for 3rd worst)

SOS Thru Week 9: 6th easiest

Bye Week: 11

RotoPat’s Coach Ranking: Last

We could go through the Giants’ team problems (quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, etc.) but that stuff is obvious. The Giants won’t be good. Period. But where I think there is value here is in the hierarchy of power and respect. Shurmur is a sitting duck when it comes to the love hexagon of Shurmur, Gettleman, Manning, Daniel Jones, and ownership. He’s the one with the least respect from fans and the one who means less to the organization’s history. If the Giants start slow (@DAL, BUF, @TB, WAS, MIN, @NE) -- the Giants could be 2-4 or 1-5 at this point -- there will be cries for Jones to start games, but I’m not sure Shurmur outlasts Manning because of ownership. It’ll be easier for the Mara’s to fire a coach who went 5-11 last year instead of benching the quarterback who won Super Bowls.