MLB Picks for Today
Despite Friday's loss, the Los Angeles Dodges continue to be a solid bet on the road. Before Friday night’s loss L.A. had won 13 of their previous 15 regular season road games, covering the -1.5 runline 11 times in that stretch and we like that trend to continue Saturday.
It all starts with pitching. Julio Urias gets the ball for the Dodgers in this one and pitched very well against the D-back in three relief appearances last season allowing just one run on four hits in seven innings. Urias was solid in his first start of 2020 but he’ll have the support of what looks like an awesome Dodgers bullpen. They have a 1.02 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP and are limiting opponents to a .138 average.
The important factor here is that the Diamondbacks have really struggled at the plate early in this shortened season. Arizona ranks near the bottom of the Bigs in both runs per game, batting average and OPS, and it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to keep up with the stacked Dodgers lineup in this one.
PREDICTION: Dodgers -1.5 (+113)
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies
The Rocky Mountain Low trend should have come through for us Friday, but we’re shaking that off and going back to the well today. For those who don’t know, this trend referred to the Rockies cashing a lot of Unders at home in 2018 thanks to some surprising start pitching and elevated totals. Then that all went to hell in 2019. But so far in 2020 the Rockies are pitching well, and bringing back some betting opportunities.
Saturday, we see a pair of southpaws face off as the Padres Joey Lucchesi toes the rubber against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Freeland was the epitome of the Rocky Mountain Low trend the last two years. The 27-year-old looked like the Rockies next ace in 2018 pitching to a 2.85 ERA and finishing fourth in Cy Young voting. Then he imploded last year with a 6.73 ERA.
But Freeland started 2020 with a solid outing against the Rangers and now has the support of what has been an excellent Rockies bullpen (excluding Wade Davis of course) to this point.
Meanwhile, Lucchesi has been solid in his first two Big League seasons, pitching to a career 4.15 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. And even though he’s had a rough start or two against the Rockies, he still owns a career 3.29 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in eight career starts against them.
This number is too high.
PREDICTION: Under 12.5 (-106)
If this 2020 MLB season gets completed, Cleveland and Minnesota could be duking it out to the end for the AL Central crown and Saturday’s matchup should be a good one as Carlos Carrasco takes the mound against Kenta Maeda.
Carrasco is looking to get back to the pitcher he was before being diagnosed with leukemia last season and looked great in his first start since last May. The right-hander allowed two runs on five hits while striking out 10 in six innings against the Royals.
He faces a Twins lineup that was one of the best in the Bigs last season, but they’ve been all feast or famine so far this year. They are scoring a bunch of runs, but mostly thanks to home runs and are hitting just .225 as a team. Cleveland has an excellent bullpen behind Carrasco and have given up the sixth fewest home runs thus far.
Maeda had a solid first start as a Twin, but Cleveland has nice value as a short dog.
PREDICTION: Cleveland (+105)
Yesterday's MLB record: 0-3
Season MLB betting record: 14-9, +3.63 units
MLB betting card for August 1
- Dodgers -1.5 (+113)
- Padres-Rockies Under 12.5 (-106)
- Cleveland (+105)
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