There's something going on with this run total between the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs tonight at Wrigley Field.
The first total posted was O/U 7.5 runs in the mound matchup between Carlos Carrasco (2-4, 3.12 ERA) and Yu Darvish (7-2, 1.77 ERA). Both pitchers possess strong arsenals with swing-and-miss stuff and they've proven their prowess at getting out of jams.
You can imagine my surprise when the total was blasted up to 8 and got as high as 8.5 runs in the early afternoon. Eventually, there was buyback the other way, but there are still good numbers available at great prices.
PointsBet Sportsbook is dealing O/U 8 runs with plus money on the Under (+100).
Sign me up for that.
I'm currently about 1.3 miles away from Wrigley. I actually walked around the block before sitting down to write this column. It was only fair that I could provide you with a fair check of the elements. It's not one of those hot and sticky neighborhood nights with howling winds in the forecast. Don't worry, we'll let you know what then happens.
The humidity is less than 50 percent all night long and the wind is blowing 7 miles per hour at first pitch. Those are very fair and average conditions. It's nothing that can justify such an adjustment on the total. So... the market is just moving against two strikeout pitchers on a random Tuesday night at the Friendly Confines?
I'll bet against these two pitchers getting knocked around tonight. Darvish has been sensational this year with a mesmerizing 0.78 WHIP and Carrasco has to be licking his chops facing a lineup that has struck out more than any other team in baseball.
Last but certainly not least, I've chronicled the Indians' ability to sail Under the posted total this season. Cleveland is still baseball's second best Under team at 29-16-2.
So what am I missing?
Play on the Indians-Cubs Under 8 runs (+100).
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