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Odds and Ends

Reverse line movement against Darvish, Cubs

by Sam Panayotovich
Updated On: August 14, 2020, 10:57 pm ET

Something is fishy about Thursday night's matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. Yu Darvish has very good splits against the Brew Crew and the Cubs are baseball's best team at 12-and-3. 

So why is the line moving against Chicago?

Reverse line movement. That's when a line move contradicts the bet percentages. Bettors line up to bet on one team, but the line moves in the opposite direction. That's exactly what we have here. 

Over 70 percent of the bets in tonight's game are on the Cubs. Chicago opened up as a -185 home favorite and even with all that Cubbie action, they're down to -170 at William Hill, -165 at BetMGM and -160 at Circa Sports. 

Hmmm.

A closer look shows us that rookie manager David Ross has loaded his lineup with righties against lefty Brett Anderson. In fact, Anthony Rizzo is the only left-handed hitter in the starting nine. That'll make the sabermetrics fans all warm and fuzzy on the inside, but it also removes Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and Jason Kipnis from the lineup. 

Forgive me for not being terrified to bet against a team with David Bote, Steven Souza and Nico Hoerner on the lineup card. 

On the bright side, Christian Yelich is hitting .364 lifetime with two homers and two walks against Darvish. Maybe this is what he needs to bust out of his slump. Milwaukee can definitely hang around in this game and if they can work pitch counts and get into that awful Cubs bullpen by the sixth or seventh inning, anything goes. 

I'll bite the apple and take a shot on what the numbers say is a live underdog. 

Let's go Brewers +150. Pizza money on Yelich to homer +375.

Sam Panayotovich

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst from the South Side of Chicago. He'll probably pick against your favorite team a lot. Follow him @spshoot