The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins have played twice this week and both games have gone Under the posted total. Monday's final was 3-1, Tuesday's was 6-2.
I think it'll be 3-for-3 after tonight.
The White Sox give the ball to their ace Lucas Giolito (7-3, 3.43 ERA) while the Twins counter with Jake Odorizzi (0-1, 8.10 ERA). I know, I know. I'm picking an Under in a game where one of the starters has an ERA over 8.
Odorizzi has actually only started three games this year, all against the Royals. He gave up two runs in each of his first two starts before they pinged him around for five runs in the last one. It's not ideal for any starter to see the same team three times in a row.
The Minnesota right hander has actually been good for Under bettors in this series. The Under is 5-1-1 (83%) in Odorizzi's last seven starts against the White Sox according to Rotoworld's Edge Finder. Obviously, this Sox club is a lot more potent at the plate, but numbers don't lie.
Meanwhile, Giolito has really rounded into elite form over his last five starts. He's given up three runs or less in all five, while two of the outings were scoreless. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is a ridiculous 50-to-7. Yes, that's 50 strikeouts to 7 walks. That'll do.
The betting market opened this game 8.5 and it really hasn't budged despite over 70 percent of tickets on the Over. So there's respected money holding this bad boy right at 8.5. And the juice to the Over is gone. PointsBet Sportsbook is dealing O/U 8.5 runs flat with juice -110 each way.
With these two teams fighting for first place in the AL Central, I like the Under even more. Hitters should be tighter and runners will be stranded on the base paths. Especially with two teams that've both struck out over 425 times this season.
Play on Twins-White Sox Under 8.5 runs (-110).
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