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Player Analysis

Fantasy Up-Down After the Transfer Deadline

by Neal Thurman
Updated On: August 9, 2019, 12:39 pm ET

The Premier League's inbound transfer deadline has come and gone (players can still be sold to clubs outside the UK until the end of August) and, as fantasy managers, we have a lot to sift through.  You can find a lot of good articles focusing on what teams won (Arsenal, Spurs, and Everton) and which ones didn't do so well (Manchester United, Chelsea, and Crystal Palace) with respect to their likely finish in the table (don't @ me, I didn't write all of the articles that say those things although I don't disagree).  Here, we're going to look at the fantasy impact of the moves that happened late in the window to give managers a sense of who gained value and who lost value as the Fantasy Premier League season kicks off later today. Most of the new arrivals won't actually participate this weekend so there should be some time to react without having to panic.  


In no particular order, here are the players who gained and lost value: 

Value Up: Alex Iwobi - From reserve unlikely to get many minutes behind newly arrived Nicolas Pepe to big ticket purchase at Everton who will get every opportunity to form a crazy-fast/athletic attack with Richarlison and Moises Kean.  With Gylfi Sigurdsson pulling the strings, the fast break should be breathtaking.  With Everton's easy schedule early Iwobi is an interesting salary cap option at 6.0 and a very worthy waiver wire claim in draft. 


Value Down: Dominic Calvert-Lewin - With Iwobi arriving, DCL is firmly entrenched as a reserve and could be looking for a new situation come January. 

Value Up: Bernd Leno - With David Luiz and Kieran Tierney arriving on deadline day and Rob Holding and Héctor Bellerín training and close to training respectively it's almost like Arsenal have an entirely new defense which will come as great news to Leno who was a fantasy afterthought last season due to the poor defense in front of him. 


Value Down: Sead Kolasinac - If the move for Tierney hadn't panned out Kolasinac was likely the starter at left back on what would still have been an improved defense.  Now he's likely got a few weeks in the role before Tierney is ready to take it from him. 

Value Up: Andreas Christensen/Kurt Zouma - The Blues were willing to sanction to sale of Luiz to Arsenal because Frank Lampard had moved his young center backs ahead of the Brazilian on the depth chart.  It isn't clear which one will have preference but with Rudiger not quite back yet both may start against Manchester United and one is likely now the presumed starter for the season. 


Value Up: Jamie Vardy - With the arrival of Dennis Praet, the Foxes have an embarrassment of riches in the attacking midfield.  A single injury or January transfer won't slow down this train. They may not get many clean sheets but the goals should flow. 


Value Down: Kasper Schmeichel - With the departure of Harry Maguire and no corresponding inbound purchase, the Foxes could end up playing a lot of 4-3 matches. Good for entertainment value, no so good for the value of their fantasy goalkeeper.  The outside backs likely retain value as they get some points going forward but the Great Dane Jr and whomever plays CB are likely not playable. 


Value Up: Troy Deeney - The arrival of a club-record signing wide attacker in the form of Ismaila Sarr sets up the possibility of Deeney flanked by Deulofeu and Sarr which has to be exciting for the veteran forward.  The notion of Deeney laying off passes and headers to Sarr as he blazes up the wing opens up improved assist potential as well as making it much harder for defenders to cluster around Deeney in the middle.  He won't be your first choice at forward but he moves from being a third forward to a second in my view. 


Value Up: Aaron Wan-Bissaka - With the arrival of Harry Maguire (and resigning/settling of David De Gea) to anchor the United defense, the prospects for AWB getting clean sheets goes up significantly.  United may struggle in the attack but the defense should be one that José Mourinho would appreciate after a summer of big dollar reinforcement. 


Value Down: Christen Eriksen - Not suggesting that Eriksen isn't a great player and fantastic fantasy option here (even my Arsenal red-colored glasses aren't that thick) but definitely concerned that a) he could be sold to Atletico/Real/somewhere on the continent before the end of August so Spurs don't lose him for nothing next summer or b) he loses playing time to Lo Celso even if he does stay.  One thing you could count on in seasons past is Spurs non-outside back fantasy options starting regularly.  Now, Kane is the only real sure thing with Son/Moura/Alli/Lamela and Eriksen/Lo Celso in likely rotational situations.  That's great news for Spurs' prospects in the table but a real pain for fantasy managers. 


Value Up: Neal Maupay - With the deadline day arrival of Aaron Mooy to go along with Leandro Trossard and Pascal Gross, Brighton have the makings of a capable attack even if they should suffer an injury of the variety that undermined Gross's season last campaign.  With Maypay newly arrived at a price that guarantees that he'll get every opportunity to supplant Glenn Murray and Graham Potter's attack-oriented approach, the elements are in place for a surprising fantasy value play. 


Value Down: Pascal Gross - Coming off of injury with a new manager and an attacking style, the early-summer signs looked good for Gross.  With the arrival of Troussard and now Mooy, there are only so many minutes to be had for attack-oriented players in Potter's 3-4-3.  In pre-season it was Trossard, Murray, and Locadia in the front three with Gross coming off the bench.  If Gross can't usurp Locadia's spot then it's hard to see where he fits.  Again, good for the actual club to have some quality depth but not good from a fantasy point-of-view. 


It won't show up in fantasy values but I was very impressed with Wolves summer as well.  They essentially started looking ahead to a year or two down the road and loaded up on young, high-potential players who can either provide depth for the current group or replace them when bigger clubs come calling in January or next summer.  By buying ahead they put themselves in a position not to be held hostage when the big transfers come, the replacement is already in-house and learning the system.  They also give themselves depth for domestic cup competitions as the first team fights in the Premier League and Europa League.  Essentially, they're running themselves like a big club even if the rest of the world hasn't caught up to believing that to be their ambition.  Overall, the group of Leicester City, Everton, and Wolves (and maybe Bournemouth if their defensive reinforcements are up to the task) should be a fascinating sub-league that is much more competitive than in years past.  You have to get to the bottom half of the table before it looks like there might be a relatively easy win. Heck, you might even have to put West Ham into that group.  They kept the core of an emerging defensive spine (Fabianski, Diop, Rice) and have strong attacking pieces in Haller, Lanzini, Anderson, Fornals, and Antonio.  This is going to be a really fun season despite the presumed hegemony of Manchester City and Liverpool. 

Neal Thurman
Neal Thurman manages the Rotoworld's Premier League coverage and contributes to Never Manage Alone which he co-founded. He is also a diehard Arsenal supporter. You can find him on Twitter @NealJThurman.