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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: Arnie's Invite

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at GolfChannel.com's fantasy game and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

European Tour's Fantasy Race to Dubai will return next week at the WGC-Match Play.


Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

Golf Channel (PlayFantasyGolf.com)

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”


Last Week Points:
 280.5
Last Week Rank: 8,619

Rory McIlroy ($33,200)
Zach Johnson ($21,400)
Byeong Hun An (14,300)
Jason Kokrak ($12,200)
Tiger Woods ($9,400)
Ben Martin ($7,100)

Analysis: Going to grab an under-the-radar Rory McIlroy and try to build around him. From there, I'm looking for strong approach play and/or comfort on bermuda greens. 


Mo Yoshimoto

 “@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 344.0

Last Week Rank: 2871

 

Tommy Fleetwood ($33,200)

Alex Noren ($33,100)

Jamie Lovemark ($13,900)

Tiger Woods ($9,400)

Sam Burns ($5,300)

Matt Every ($3,000)

Analysis: Once again, this is the cheapest you'll find Tiger Woods of any format. Even if you don't want to pay top dollar in other formats, it's hard to pass him up here. Matt Every is a two-time champ here and Mo is hoping he rekindles those good vibes.


Editor's Note: The crew at TeamRankings.com stayed up all night crunching the March Madness numbers. Want the biggest edge in your pool? Get data-driven predictions for any possible NCAA matchup.

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 15,952

Season Rank: 4,656*Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Justin Rose
Tommy Fleetwood
Rory McIlroy
Henrik Stenson

 

Bench:

Brandt Snedeker
Tiger Woods

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Rank: 22129

Season Rank: 708

 

Starters:

Alex Noren

Tommy Fleetwood

Tiger Woods

Brian Harman

 

Bench:

Justin Rose

Jason Day

~


One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Wasted a week with Henrik Stenson last week but there is no time to panic. Seven of the top eight biggest purses are yet to come. 

For this week's API, let's start with some historical course horses: 


Francesco Molinari (5-for-5 with four top 20s)
Henrik Stenson (8-for-9 with five top 15s)
Marc Leishman (6-for-8 including T3 and WIN)
Justin Rose (10-for-12 with six top 15s)
Zach Johnson (13-for-14 with six top 15s)
Jason Day (5-for-7 including WIN)
Rory Mcilroy (T11-T27-T4)
Ian Poulter (8-for-12 with five T21 or better)
Brandt Snedeker (9-for-11 with four top 20s)
Tiger Woods (16-for-17 with EIGHT WINS)
Lucas Glover (6-for-8 with four top 20s)
Hudson Swafford (3-for-4 including T11 and T10)
Kevin Na (6-for-9 with five top 15s)
Emiliano Grillo (T17-T7)
Kevin Chappell (4-for-6 with T14 and RUNNER-UP)

After that, let's look at a (weighted) baseline performance metric since the start of 2014. 

 

Jason Day
Rory Mcilroy
Henrik Stenson
Justin Rose
Hideki Matsuyama
Rickie Fowler
Adam Scott
Tyrrell Hatton
Tommy Fleetwood
Marc Leishman
Louis Oosthuizen
Alex Noren
Brandt Snedeker
Francesco Molinari
Bubba Watson

Looking at both lists, we see some overlap with the following names: Francesco Molinari, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Brandt Snedeker

I think all of these names are viable but who do I have available? I've already used Rose, Leishman, and Stenson. 

That leaves me with Francesco Molinari, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Brandt Snedeker

Day and Rory are both top-shelf talents that may be better saved for a major, WGC, or a run of good form. 

Snedeker has a steady history here but he has elite history at the Wyndham. We'll have plenty of chances to pick Sneds down the road. 

Molinari has elite course history but he's struggling, somewhat, with form. He's not finding the bottom of the cup recently, so I will pass. 

Instead, I'm going to call an audible and go with Tommy Fleetwood this week. He ranks 9th in the baseline performance metric and he finished T10 in his API debut last year. It wasn't love at first sight as he opened with a 6-over 78. If we look at performance in R2 thru R4 only then the top 3 would be Fleetwood, Rory, and Leishman. The deciding factor was scheduling. After the Masters I'm expecting Fleetwood to spend most of his time in Europe but I would like to use a top talent like him before the year is over. This is a prime spot on a course that he's already seen. 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:


Rory McIlroy ($11,500): Flying way under the radar after some mediocre winter results. Bay Hill should allow him to shine on the par 5s and return to contention. 
 
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,700): If we remove R1 from last year's results then he finished number in the API field during his debut. Of course, we can't remove that opening round, but we can hope he continues to feast here at Bay Hill. 
 
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,300): Sets up shop at the Bear's Club so I'm expecting him to be ready for these bermuda greens. He certainly was the last two years when he gained 4.9 and 6.8 strokes putting here at the API. 
 
Charley Hoffman ($9,200): It wasn't love at first sight for Hoffman and Bay Hill but he raced out to the 36-hole lead here last year. He co-led after 54 holes before settling for T2. 
 
Jimmy Walker ($8,900): Has the reputation for crushing the West Coast but he also has three top 25s in four appearances at Bay Hill. Hasn't played here since 2013 but with his game finally rounding back into form, I think he wants to strike while the iron is hot. 
 
Kyle Stanley ($8,800): His short game has been a disaster lately but still found a top 25 in Mexico thanks to 5.1 strokes gained on approach. 


 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Rickie Fowler ($10,300): It's funny how quickly recency bias snowballs. After his Hero win, everyone in the world was declaring him ready for a monster 2018 season. Now he's slipped over a few events and suddenly he's flying under the radar. Good value here for Fowler who should be underowned this week, priced just $300 above the GOAT. 

Rory McIlroy ($10,700): Hasn't had much success in his recent tournament debuts (AT&T Pro-Am and Valspar) but he should find his way back in contention this week at Bay Hill. It's a course that allows him to crush the par 5s, so I'm expecting at least one eagle out of Rory this week. 

Kyle Stanley ($7,200): Has top 20s in two of his last three Bay Hill appearances. 

Charley Hoffman ($7,100) : Finally figured out Bay Hill last week so he should return this week with some extra confidence. Has been somewhat quiet lately. 

Kevin Chappell ($7,300):  Finished runner-up during the 2016 API and he arrives with some of the best ball-striking numbers of anyone in the field. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,400): Staying far off the radar, I'm going with this young Englishman who can dominate any week on the putting greens. 

  

 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.