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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: NORTHERN TRUST

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Here is a quick rundown of what sites and formats we will cover each week: 

Page 1 will feature all of our selections for GolfChannel.com and Yahoo! Fantasy Golf.

Page 2 will go over One-and-Done as well as Daily Fantasy Golf picks. 

Page 3 will take a look at the European Tour, with the Fantasy Race to Dubai.

First, a reminder to check out Mo Yoshimoto's Wyndham Championship Recap. Always loaded with in-depth information.   

Now for the picks... 
 

GolfChannel.com Fantasy Golf
 
Josh Culp

@futureoffantasy
 

Last Week: 409 points

Last Week Rank: 3,633
 

Rory McIlroy ($33,300)
Gary Woodland ($20,200)
Tony Finau ($15,400)
Xander Schauffele ($12,500)
Ollie Schniederjans ($9,000)
Keegan Bradley ($9,000)
 

ANALYSIS:  Going with Rory at the top as other gamers may be scared off due to his injury. Other than that, trying to stick to big hitters that don't rely on their flat sticks (new course with poa greens should neutralize putting a bit). 

Ryan O’Sullivan
@RyanGolfBlogger


Last Week:
 364 points

Last Week Rank: 5,902

Henrik Stenson ($33,300)
Hideki Matsuyama  ($33,300)
Tony Finau ($15,400)
Ollie Schniederjans ($9,000)
Brandon Hagy ($4,200)
Jonas Blixt ($3,300)
 

ANALYSIS:  With only 120 golfers in the field, Ryan is deploying a stars and scrubs strategy, since roughly 60% of the field will play all four rounds. Stenson will need to put his driver back in the bag this week, but he's riding a hot putter which will be tough to catch if he keeps it rolling for a second straight week. 

 

Mori Yoshimoto
@Bears3423


Last Week: 333.0 points

Last Week Rank: 7,401

 

Dustin Johnson ($33,300)

Jason Day ($33,200)

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200)

Ollie Schniederjans ($9,000)

Jason Kokrak ($8,800)

Robert Garrigus ($5,200)

 
 ANALYSIS: Mo is deploying the bomb squad this week. That should play nicely at Glen Oaks which stretches out to 7,350 yards despite being a par 70.

 

Yahoo! Fantasy Golf

*Make sure you check our Twitter accounts for any updates before the first tee ball flies on Thursday. Change in weather, tee times, etc. can always lead to last-minute changes and we will let you know through our social media channels. 


This week's Strategy: A lovely forecast and smaller field. That means no tough tee-time decisions based on starting times. Now you just have to pick the best golfer each round. Easy, right!?
  

Josh Culp
“Future of Fantasy” 

Last Week Points: 129

Segment Points: 1,376

Segment Rank: 11,926

Season Points: 4,613

Season Ranking: 6,486

Group A

Rickie Fowler (3): Has rattled off six top 10s over his last eight worldwide starts. Tough to argue with that form.

Rory McIlroy (4): On the other side of the form spectrum, McIlroy is playing decent but not up to his typical high standards. With others likely going for a safer pick like Dustin Johnson or Jason Day, I'm going to take my chances on the big Ulsterman to return to the winner's circle.


=SUPER SUBS =

Dustin Johnson, Jason Day
 

Group B
Justin Rose (3): Not the strongest of form but I've exhausted my alloted starts for Spieth AND Casey. Rose will have to do instead.

Hideki Matsuyama (3): Arrives on the heels of five straight top 15s worldwide, including a win at Firestone CC, another lengthy tree-lined course that sits north of bermuda country.
 

Matt Kuchar (2): Has top 20s in eight of his last nine worldwide starts. His only finish outside the top 20 was the week he suffered from dizziness. His confidence with the driver works on any course type.

Charley Hoffman (5): The superstar of the summer, I'm going to keep riding his hot form.
  

=SUPER SUBS=
Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey

 

Group C
Jon Rahm (4): Has been quiet lately but not too far removed from his win on the Euro Tour. He can still lap a field when his game is clicking.

Brooks Koepka (4): This big hitter shows up in the strongest of fields. His length should be a big plus on this week's lengthy par 70 layout.
 

=SUPER SUBS=
Tony Finau, Ollie Schniederjans, Daniel Berger, Henrik Stenson

 
 

Ryan O’Sullivan (O)
“The Golf Aficionado”

Last Week Points: 141
Summer Segment Points: 1,409
Summer Rank: 7,898

Season Points: 4,792
Season Rank: 1,393

 

Group A

Dustin Johnson (4) and Jason Day (6)


Group B

Hideki Matsuyama (3), Jordan Spieth (3), Matt Kuchar (5) and Justin Thomas (7)

Group C

Jon Rahm (4) and Henrik Stenson (7)

 
 

Mo Yoshimoto
“@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 111

Segment Points: 1,391

Segment Rank: 10,086

Season Points: 4,873

Season Ranking: 561

 

Group A

Jason Day (9) and Dustin Johnson (4)


Group B

Hideki Matsuyama (4), Justin Thomas (5), Paul Casey (5) and Jordan Spieth (2) 


Group C

Brooks Koepka (5) and Daniel Berger (6)

 

 

 

~

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team each week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

I would also advise you to change a roster spot or two if you are trying to enter this lineup yourself. Duplicate entries are no fun. 

 
FanDuel Picks:
 

FanDuel is back and they have a new format. You no longer have to split your lineup into pre-cut and post-cut sections. A very good change, so let's see what we can put together. 

Ollie Schniederjans ($6,600): After a near-miss at the Wyndham, he's showing that a win is coming sooner rather than later.

Keegan Bradley ($6,100):
Is averaging 4.3 strokes gained off-the-tee in his last five events. Should enjoy a return to the Northeast.

Xander Schauffele ($6,000): Has gained strokes off-the-tee in each of his last nine ShotLink lasered events. That kind of confidence on the tee box should come in handy on a huge ballpark like Glen Oaks Club.


Marc Leishman ($7,400): 
Quitely has some of the best form on TOUR. Top 20s in six of his last nine starts. 

Patrick Reed ($8,400): The thing I like about Reed is that he always finds a reason to be motivated. Doesn't show up just to collect a middle-of-the-road paycheck. Goes for the home run.

Tony Finau ($8,300):  
Speaking of home runs, this power hitter would likely hit plenty of dingers if he honed his craft in baseball instead of golf. Lucky for us, that's not the case. Racks up birdies in bunches.

With two spots remaining, we have $17,200 which gives us the pick of the litter. Some options I like include: Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey, Brooks Koepka, J.B. Holmes, Jon Rahm, Branden Grace, Gary Woodland.

DraftKings Picks:
 

Phil Mickelson ($7,900): A disappointing run of finishes since parting ways with Bones but Mickelson is too good to stay down in the dumps for long. Mickelson loves coming to New York, making it a prime spot for a bounce back.

Tony Finau ($7,300): 
Just an off pricing here. Finau has the scoring prowess to easily be priced in the mid $8Ks, so we are getting a lot of value here. Don't expect him to fly under the radar, he'll be heavily owned.

Paul Casey ($9,000): Enters with four straight top 15s. Hasn't finished worse than 26th since the Arnold Palmer Invitational back in March. 

Ollie Schniederjans ($8,100):
 Have to pay $500 more for him this week due to his strong performance last week. We lose some of the value, but I will ride the hot hand anyway. 

Justin Rose ($8,300): The Englishman is out of form (like Lefty) but I'm willing to double down on risk since I've already rostered Mickelson.

Jon Rahm ($8,900):  The Spaniard has gone T44-T28-T58 since winning the Irish Open. Even his bad weeks lead to cuts made and birdies dropping. 

 


One-and-Done

Each week I think aloud to provide you with my One-and-Done selection as well as a few alternatives. Fade or Follow? You decide!
 

Grabbed a top 25 from Ryan Moore last week but really need more than that in One-and-Done where the finishing-position payouts are so top heavy. 

With no course history to look at, let's replace it with current form to see who has gained the most strokes over the last 10 weeks of stroke play (PGA TOUR and Euro Tour).

Charley Hoffman (96 strokes gained)
Rickie Fowler (89 strokes gained)
Hideki Matsuyama (84 strokes gained)
Patrick Reed (81 strokes gained)
Henrik Stenson (81 strokes gained)
Matt Kuchar (78 strokes gained)
Xander Schauffele (73 strokes gained)
Jordan Spieth (71 strokes gained)
Paul Casey (66 strokes gained)
Webb Simpson (66 strokes gained)

From there, let's hit the magnifying glass backwards to look at weighted long-term performance on the PGA TOUR and Euro Tour since 2014:  

 

Rory Mcilroy
Jordan Spieth
Dustin Johnson
Henrik Stenson
Jason Day
Hideki Matsuyama
Rickie Fowler
Justin Rose
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

The golfers that check both boxes (current form and long-term performance) include: Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Those would be the five names to start with (if you have any of them still available). 

Even if I expand the lists to top 20, that adds Matt Kuchar, Brooks Koepka, and Jon Rahm. I've used all three of them, as well. Instead, I'm going to ride a hot hand from last week and choose Ollie Schniederjans as my pick this week. He showed no fear when in contention down the stretch at the Wyndham and nearly holed his final approach shot for eagle, which would have put him in playoff. He is ready to win soon.

Season Tracking

Wins: 2
Top 10s: 14
Top 25s: 19
Missed Cuts: 9
Total Picks: 40

~
Fantasy Race to Dubai

Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.

  

Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.

  

 

Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)

 

Last week: Nothing to see here. Miniscule drop of 8 spots after uneventful Paul Lawrie Match Play.
 
Pos: 2880
 
Thomas Pieters (captain): The class act of the field just happens to be the defending champion. Last time the Belgian put a title on the line, he finished runner-up. No-brainer captain pick.
 
Soren Kjeldsen: Home hero not only has fan support, he has a course that suits. 8-2-15 here and putter looked hot when top 20 at Wyndham last week.
 
Bradley Dredge: Twice a runner-up and never outside the top six here, Dredge can’t be ignored at Himmerland even if recent form isn’t sparkling.
 
Julian Suri: The American was the 54-hole leader at the Challenge Tour’s Made In Denmark event recently. Can continue his education with a big week here.
 
Aaron Rai: Brilliant putter and that’s key at Himmerland. Twice a winner on the Challenge Tour this season, he’s ready to make a mark on the big tour.
 
Paul Dunne: Another with a hot flatstick. Runner-up in Morocco earlier this season, he looks capable of winning an event like this.

 

Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 
Last week: Still stuck in the Doldrums as I just cannot shift from a ranking of 1,500 and something. Truth is, we’re all just chipping away till the next big fund event.
 
Position: 1,594th
 
Soren Kjeldsen (captain): Wonderful course form (8-2-15) and arrives fresh from carding a 62 in the Wyndham Championship. Loves the home crowds.
 
Thomas Pieters: Expecting a strong defense from the big Belgian who will have very fond memories of what last year’s success led to (a fine Ryder Cup debut).
 
Thorbjorn Olesen: Banking on the homeboy finally sorting out his course form. Topped the putting stats recently at Firestone.
 
Bradley Dredge: Once sixth and twice second on the course – and the Welshman has a history of being a course horse.
 
Rikard Karlberg: T9 and T14 on his two visits to the course and looks like he is slowly finding a bit of form.
 
David Lipsky: Had time to get the links swing nightmare out of his system, superb course form including a real good go at the win 12 months ago, and a friend of Danielle Kang so might be inspired by her superb Solheim Cup debut?

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.