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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: Valspar

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at GolfChannel.com's fantasy game and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

European Tour's Race to Dubai returns this week on Page 3. 


Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

Golf Channel (PlayFantasyGolf.com)

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”


Last Week Points:
 495
Last Week Rank: 3,730

Jordan Spieth ($33,300)
Henrik Stenson ($33,300)
Aaron Wise ($10,500)
Beau Hossler ($9,900)
Tiger Woods ($6,500)
Sam Burns ($6,500)

Analysis: Going with a Stars and Scrubs approach this week with Stenson and Spieth anchored the squad. That leaves plenty of room for boom-or-bust options at the bottom. Wise, Hossler, and Burns are all youngsters with top-10 potential while Woods is just too cheap still. 


Mo Yoshimoto

 “@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 491.5

Last Week Rank: 4128

 

Jordan Spieth ($33,300)

Luke List ($21,000)

Byeong Hun An ($18,800)

Steve Stricker ($13,800)

Tiger Woods ($6,500)

Sam Burns ($6,500)

Analysis: Also going with the combo of Woods and Burns at the bottom. Using Spieth as the anchor but not taking as much risk in the mid-tier. 

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 5,955

Season Rank: 4,683*Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Matt Kuchar
Henrik Stenson
Patrick Reed
Justin Rose

 

Bench:

Tony Finau
Rory McIlroy

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Rank: 14034

Season Rank: 391

 

Starters:

Rory McIlroy

Adam Scott

Luke List

Byeong Hun An

 

Bench:

Jordan Spieth

Henrik Stenson

~


One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Had a near-miss last week with Justin Thomas but he still returned a $1MM+ payday so it's hard to complain there. 

For this week's Valspar, let's start with some historical horses at the Copperhead Course: 


Jason Dufner (9-for-10 with seven top 25s)
Henrik Stenson (4-T11-T7)
Matt Kuchar (9-for-10 with seven T22 or better)
Charl Schwartzel (MC-WIN-6)
Ryan Moore (7-for-11 with three top 10s)
Charles Howell III (11-for-14 with four top 10s)
Jim Furyk (8-for-9 with three top 10s including WIN)
Nick Watney (10-for-10 with five top 25s)
Bill Haas (6-for-9 with three T16 or betteR)
Patrick Reed (MC-T2-T7-T38)
John Huh (3-for-6 with T33-T22-T9 last three)
Luke Donald (8-for-9 with four top 10s including WIN)
Danny Lee (MC-T7-WD-T22; T19 when WD)
Jordan Spieth (T7-T20-WIN-T18)
Dominic Bozzelli (T3)


After that, let's look at a (weighted) baseline performance metric since the start of 2014. 

 

Jordan Spieth
Rory McIlroy
Henrik Stenson
Justin Rose
Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey
Adam Scott
Matt Kuchar
Brandt Snedeker
Louis Oosthuizen
Steve Stricker
Tony Finau
Patrick Reed
Zach Johnson
Webb Simpson

Looking at both lists, we see some overlap with the following names: Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Patrick Reed, and Matt Kuchar

Given the smaller purse, I don't think there is any reason to get cute and trot Spieth out there. Sure if he wins, you are making a huge move but the payoffs drop off quickly if he finishes off the podium. 

Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar are both coming off horrendous putting performance in Mexico. I think both are viable this week because I won't smack myself later in the year if I don't have them available. However, I will avoid the travel and go with Henrik Stenson instead. 

The Swede has been quiet for the last month but he is someone I rarely fear when coming off a layoff. At his age, he knows which courses/events he likes to schedule and he knows when to head overseas and collect a nice appearance fee. With T11 or better in all three visits to the Valspar, I love Stenson to pick this course apart and find himself in contention come Sunday. 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:


Jordan Spieth ($12,400): Has made it very clear that he wants a victory before heading to Augusta National. When Spieth sets goals, he generally achieves them. As a past champ here (2015), this is as good of spot as any to pick up that W. 
 
Henrik Stenson ($11,600): It's been love at first sight for the Swede and Copperhead. He posted a solo fourth in his 2015 debut and has since returned to collect two more finishes of T11 or better. 
 
Matt Kuchar ($10,600): The poa annua greens in Mexico really puzzled Kooch but he should bounce back on more familiar Florida green surfaces. Has finished T22 or better in 7-of-10 visits to Innisbrook. 
 
Hudson Swafford ($8,500): Hasn't reaped the rewards of an enhanced schedule due to last year's CBC win. With four par 5s on hand this week, I like the Georgia Bulldog who has seven eagles in his last 10 starts. 
 
Aaron Wise ($8,100): The Oregon standout is generally lights out with his long irons which should be key this week. He's a West Coast guy but these overseeded greens don't require a steep learning curve. 
 
Jimmy Walker ($8,700): A major champion less than two years ago. Showing signs of life recently, I'm going to try to jump aboard before the masses jump back on the Texan. 


 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Henrik Stenson ($10,200): Don't have to pay a premium for the Orlando resident that has finished T11 or better in all three visits to the Valspar. 

Matt Kuchar ($8,200): Should see his ownership plummet after a poor putting performance in Mexico. I'd expect a big bounce back from Kuchar who rarely disappoints in consecutive weeks. 

Aaron Wise ($6,900): For the near minimum salary we get one of the best young talents on TOUR. I think in a year we'll laugh if we happen to look back at this week's salary. 

Adam Hadwin ($8,800): The defending champion and also arriving fresh off back-to-back top 10s. Let's let it ride. 

Hudson Swafford ($6,800): Eagles are tough to come by at Copperhead but if anyone can find one, Swafford is high on the list to do so. Generally a steady cut maker, so this salary is hard to ignore. 

Byeong Hun An ($8,400): Spent his teenage years in Tampa so this area is very familiar to him. Last year he was still trying to learn how PGA TOUR courses are set up but this year we should see his comfort level continue to rise. Can rack up birdies quickly. 

 

 

~

 

2018 Fantasy Race to Dubai



Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 
Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.
 
Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)

 
 

Last week: Gamble to play 'secret' Euro Tour member Xander Schauffele looked liked paying off before he fell back into the pack. Slide continues.

 Pos: 9,176

 

Anirban Lahiri (captain): It's a quirky layout but local man Lahiri shone on the weekend to finish T5 last year. Owns five straight top fives in his national Open so he's a worthy skipper.

 

S.S.P. Chawrasia: 1-1-2-2 in the last four Indian Opens. Last year's win was the most extraordinary of the lot as the course didn't look ideal and yet he won by seven! No-brainer in this event.

 

Shubhankar SharmaCan't ignore this youngster. Two European Tour wins in the last few months and the shock 54-hole leader on his WGC debut in Mexico last week. Also a member here.

 

Wade Ormsby: Now for my first non-Indian! Ormsby won in Hong Kong last year thanks to finding lots of fairways and that should stand him in good stead here. T22 last year and has won in India.

 

Joost Luiten: The tournament favorite won in Oman a couple of starts ago and hit it really well in Mexico last week without getting much reward.

 

Andrew Johnston: 'Beef' kicked 2018 off with a top 10 in Abu Dhabi and added T12 in Oman last time. He'll have the right attitude for this challenging course and hits lots of greens and fairways.

 

 
 
Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 

Last week: A loss of 400 places as I struggled to get a head for heights in Mexico.


Position
: 685th


Anirban Lahiri
(captain)
: Classy and not been outside the top five in this event the last five times he's played it.

SSP Chawrasia: Four times a runner-up in the event, twice a winner, going for the hat-trick. Would be astonished if he did it, but not surprised if he has a good week.


Joost Luiten
: Finding a lot of greens at the moment and he proved in 2017 (and reiterated last week) how much he doesn't like Chapultepec's greens so letting him off.


Shubhankar Sharma
: Was initially wary of picking him, given the emotional energy expended last week, not to mention all the travel. But he's on his home course so can breath easier between and before rounds.


Julian Suri
: I have a sneaking feeling this course will suit him very well in an event he first played back in 2013, three years before reaching the main tours.


Paul Peterson
: Love his response to losing his full card, being very solid on Asian and European Tours. He found the win on the former, now might do it at the higher level.

 

 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.