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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: WGC and Corales

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at PGATOUR.com's Bracket Challenge and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

European Tour's Race to Dubai returns this week on Page 3. 


Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

PGATOUR.com Bracket Challenge

Josh Culp 

Elite 8 
Jason Day over Dustin Johnson
Alex Noren over Tyrrell Hatton
Sergio Garcia over Gary Woodland
Jon Rahm over Rory McIlroy 
 
Final Four
Alex Noren over Jason Day
Jon Rahm over Sergio Garcia
 
Winner
Alex Noren over Jon Rahm

Analysis: Going with mostly chalk here but offsetting that with a somewhat surprising winner. Noren has a proven track record in match play and he arrives in great 2018 form. 


Mo Yoshimoto



Elite 8 
Dustin Johnson over Louis Oosthuizen
Alex Noren over Tyrrell Hatton
Rory McIlroy over Phil Mickelson
Sergio Garcia over Gary Woodland


Final Four
Dustin Johnson over Alex Noren
Rory McIlroy over Sergio Garcia


Winner
Dustin Johnson over Rory McIlroy

Analysis: DJ was an unstoppable force here last year and Mo is going right back to the well. A DJ-Rory showdown would provide just as many, if not more, fireworks than last year's DJ-Rahm finale. 


PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 3rd

Season Rank: 4,101 *Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Emiliano Grillo
Patrick Rodgers
Scott Piercy
Jim Furyk

 

Bench:

Abraham Ancer
Nate Lashley

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Rank: 13,100

Season Rank: 712

 

Starters:

Scott Piercy

Patrick Rodgers

Rory Sabbatini

Kelly Kraft

 

Bench:

Emiliano Grillo

Abraham Ancer

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One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Nearly pulled the trigger on a sneaky Rory last week, instead, I settled for a T26 from Tommy Fleetwood

For this week's Corales, I don't want to lean on the usual course history. There is some history from when the Web.com Tour hosted this event but I don't want to give an edge to golfers for being on a lesser tour last year. Instead, I will start with a top 10 in total strokes gained over the last 8 weeks (PGA TOUR and Euro Tour): 


Emiliano Grillo

Rory Sabbatini
Patrick Rodgers
Harris English
Robert Garrigus
Seungsu Han
Troy Merritt
Brice Garnett
Derek Fathauer
Scott Piercy
Jim Furyk
Abraham Ancer
Corey Conners
Trey Mullinax
Fabrizio Zanotti

After that, let's look at a (weighted) baseline performance metric since the start of 2014. 

 

Jim Furyk
Emiliano Grillo
Harris English
Scott Piercy
Chris Wood
Graeme Mcdowell
David Lingmerth
Daniel Summerhays
Robert Streb
Seamus Power
Matt Jones
David Hearn
Robert Garrigus
Patrick Rodgers
Michael Kim

Looking at both lists, we see some overlap with the following names: Emiliano Grillo, Patrick Rodgers, Harris English, Robert Garrigus, Scott Piercy, and Jim Furyk

I would put Garrigus and English in a lower tier this week compared to the other four, but I think all six make a viable pick for One-and-Done. 

I love how Rodgers is trending but from a long-term view I don't think he hangs with Grillo or Furyk. Between Furyk and Grillo, the Argentine has the obvious advantage in form. I will stick with the chalk and go with Emiliano Grillo this week. 

For the WGC-Match Play One-and-Done, I will take a look at two angles. Current Form and Match Play History. 

Current Form (Total Strokes, not Per Round): 


Tommy Fleetwood

Alex Noren
Phil Mickelson
Luke List
Rory Mcilroy
Justin Thomas
Paul Casey
Patrick Reed
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Dustin Johnson
Adam Hadwin
Branden Grace
James Hahn
Kevin Chappell
Bubba Watson

Next I will add in the Match Play component. This stat looks at the average number of holes gained in a match (compared to the average golfer) in all head-to-head matches over the last 10 years: 

Jon Rahm
Alex Noren
Jason Day
Dustin Johnson
Louis Oosthuizen
Rory Mcilroy
Ian Poulter
Zach Johnson
Paul Casey
Phil Mickelson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Matt Kuchar
Gary Woodland
Jhonattan Vegas
Tyrrell Hatton

Golfers that land on both lists: Alex Noren, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Dustin Johnson.

Checking in at #2 on both lists, Alex Noren is my man this week (just like last year at this event). The Swede played his college golf at Oklahoma State and spends his winters in Florida. If the wind picks up (like it should), I trust Noren to hang tough.  

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:


Patrick Rodgers ($11,500): The Stanford product has some good results near the coast. He was the 36-hole co-leader at this season's OHL Classic and also arrives with top 35s in four of his last five starts. Could finally be ready to grab that first win. 
 
Emiliano Grillo ($11,700): The class of the field (assuming the decline of Furyk). I'm not going to overthink this one since pricing is relatively soft. 
 
Rafael Campos ($10,600): The Puerto Rican was surely upset that the PR Open was only a charity event this year (due to hurricane damage). Luckily, he'll have his shot this week. You won't find any PGA TOUR form but he does have a pair of podium finishes on the Web circuit this year. 
 
Keith Mitchell ($9,000): Have him top 20 in worldwide performance over the past few years (in this field). Yet, he checks in under the average salary for a golfer. Good value. 
 
Nate Lashley ($8,800): The defending champ at Corales GC. He avoids bogeys at a high clip so I'm hoping he scores enough to play the weekend and then rekindles some of his magic here at in the D.R. 
 
Abraham Ancer ($8,000): Very affordable price tag for a golfer that is showing flashes of form and has also shown some success at Corales GC. 


 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Abraham Ancer ($7,900): The OHL Classic is one of the main events I'm looking at for correlated success. That happens to be where Ancer posted his career-best finish on the PGA TOUR. 

Nate Lashley ($7,400): Is just 3-for-10 to start his rookie season but his bogey numbers suggest he should be much better than that. A return to this course where he's previously won should spark some good vibes. 

Rafael Campos ($7,100): Already has a pair of podium finishes in the Caribbean this year. They came on the Web.com Tour but that's basically what this week's field is anyway. Very underpriced on DraftKings. 

Trey Mullinax ($8,800): If the Puerto Rico Open is a correlated course then Mullinax starts to pop. He blitzed that track with a 9-under 63 during R1 last year (leader after day one). He's also been T9 after 36 holes at the RSM Classic, another event I'm considering as a possible pointer. Mullinax can take it low, making him a great GPP play on DK. 

Patrick Rodgers ($10,000): Getting closer to his maiden win, Rodgers is racking up birdies recently but he's also avoiding bogeys. In the past it was usually one or the other. Could be the recipe for finally curing his winless streak. 

Derek Fathauer ($7,700): Sticking with correlated courses, Fathauer's two career-best finishes? A T3 at the CIMB Classic (paspalum greens) and a solo fourth at the OHL Classic (paspalum greens). 

 

 

~

 

2018 Fantasy Race to Dubai



Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 
Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.
 
Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)

 
 

Last week: A rise of 800 spots thanks to Beef’s second place in India. Time to kick on.


Pos: 8,450
 
Rory McIlroy (captain): Back to his brilliant best with Bay Hill win and likes this event too. Former semi-finalist at Austin CC so in he goes at captain.
 
Jon Rahm: Had a 7&5 victory and two 6&4 wins on the way to the final last time. Potentially tricky draw but if Rahm builds up a head of steam he’ll be hard to stop. 
 
Paul Casey: Twice a beaten finalist and confidence even higher than usual after Valspar win.
 
Patrick Reed: If you’re going to cash in on Reed’s availability in any event, it has to be this one. Time for the in-form Ryder Cup star to make a big impact here.
 
Tyrrell Hatton: Fell foul of a rules violation when contesting a play-off for the group last year so he’ll be extra-keen to make amends. Class act and could go deep.
 
Alex Noren: Reached the last eight at this venue in 2017 and he’s been one of Europe’s star men in America this season.

 

 
 
Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 

Last week: Not a great Indian Open so slipped outside the top 1000.
 
Position: 1,064th
 
Jon Rahm (captain): Simple theory: I like the way he didn't just beat the opposition last year but crushed them.
 
Paul Casey: Will be confident after the win and at his best performed very well in match play formats.
 
Alex Noren: At individual match play tournament he is not only 9-4, he has also only ever lost to players who have won match play events (D. Johnson, McDowell, Ogilvy and Wall).
 
Rory McIlroy: Played wonderfully last week, past winner of this event and would be madness not to follow the crowd given the competition format.
 
Sergio Garcia: Not entirely convinced by his chances this week, but it is being played in the best possible place (close to his wife's family home shortly after she gave birth). Main reason for selection is defensive: lots of other folk will be doing the same thing.
 
Tommy Fleetwood: Not quite happened for him in match play yet but no reason why it shouldn't. 

 

 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.