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Post-Season Fantasy Rankings

Super Wild Card Weekend Ranks and DFS stacks

by C.D. Carter
Updated On: January 10, 2021, 9:53 am ET

The NFL throwing another team into the Wildcard Weekend mix has given us a slightly more full-bodied daily fantasy slate, allowing DFS players more room to overthink things just enough to ruin an otherwise good lineup. 

Below are my ranks for this weekend's games and some DFS thoughts of which games are most stackable and how we might go about said stacking. 

Super Wild Card Weekend Rankings

Quarterback

1. Lamar Jackson 
2. Josh Allen
3. Tom Brady
4. Ryan Tannehill
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Drew Brees
7. Philip Rivers
8. Baker Mayfield
9. Russell Wilson
10. Mitchell Trubisky
11. John Wolford
12. Alex Smith
13. Taylor Heinicke
14. Taysom Hill

 

Running Back

1. Derrick Henry
2. Alvin Kamara
3. David Montgomery
4. J.K. Dobbins
5. Jonathan Taylor
6. Nick Chubb
7. Ronald Jones
8. Cam Akers
9. Antonio Gibson
10. Chris Carson
11. J.D. McKissic
12. Kareem Hunt
13. Nyheim Hines
14. James Conner
15. Latavius Murray
16. Gus Edwards
17. Malcolm Brown
18. Devin Singletary
19. Rashaad Penny
20. Zack Moss
21. Leonard Fournette
22. Benny Snell
23. Peyton Barber

 

Wide Receiver

1. Stefon Diggs
2. Allen Robinson
3. Terry McLaurin
4. A.J. Brown
5. Diontae Johnson
6. Michael Thomas
7. DK Metcalf
8. Marquise Brown
9. Chris Godwin
10. T.Y. Hilton
11. Jarvis Landry
12. Mike Evans
13. Antonio Brown
14. Tyler Lockett
15. Emmanuel Sanders
16. Darnell Mooney
17. Robert Woods
18. Corey Davis
19. JuJu Smith-Schuster
20. Cooper Kupp
21. Chase Claypool
22. John Brown
23.  Higgins
24. Cam Sims
25. Michael Pittman
26. Josh Reynolds
27. Zach Pascal
28. Gabriel Davis
29. Cordarrelle Patterson
30. Miles Boykin
31. David Moore

Tight End

1. Mark Andrews
2. Jared Cook
3. Logan Thomas
4. Rob Gronkowski
5. Cole Kmet
6. Eric Ebron
7. Dawson Knox
8. Austin Hooper
9. Tyler Higbee
10. Jack Doyle
11. Jimmy Graham
12. Jonnu Smith
13. Jacob Hollister
14. David Njoku
15. Anthony Firkser
16. Trey Burton
17. Gerald Everett
18. Cameron Brate

 

Defense

1. Steelers
2. Saints
3. Seahawks
4. Bills
5. Bucs
6. Football Team
7. Rams
8. Ravens
9. Colts
10. Browns
11. Bears
12. Titans

DFS Stacking Options 

Colts (+7) @ Bills 

Over/under: 51.5

This is one of -- if not the most -- stackable game of Super Duper Wild Card Weekend. The glaringly obvious stacking starting point is pairing Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs. I don’t feel compelled to write four paragraphs telling you why Diggs is a good play so you’ll have to settle for this: Indy opponents have attacked the Colts Defense recently via wideouts, with 65 targets going to receivers facing the Colts over the past two games. You’re going to want exposure to the wideout seeing 102.31 air yards per game, the fourth most in the NFL. 

You could throw in one other Buffalo wideout with Allen and Diggs. John Brown, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie are all viable options with Cole Beasley looking iffy to suit up. McKenzie probably won’t blow up in back-to-back weeks, but his usage is encouraging: he’s been the team’s primary slot guy with Beasley out, even running with Buffalo’s starters before they were rested in Week 17. 

A galaxy brain GGP option: stack Allen with two of Brown, Davis, and McKenzie, and not Diggs. This is what we call getting cute in search of differentiation on a short DFS slate. 

Colts correlation stacking options are plentiful in this one. Probably the horseshoes are going to face a steady drip of negative game script in the Incredibly Super Duper Wild Card Round, forcing Philip Rivers into plenty of drop backs. It’s not a superb outlook for Jonathan Taylor, though the widely held belief that Buffalo will railroad the Colts should suppress Taylor’s DFS ownership and make him a stunningly unique play. Nyheim Hines, the third most targeted running back in the league this season, would be the natural beneficiary of Indy chasing points for two or three (of four) quarters. Hines is no J.D. McKissic though -- he’s not a lock to see double digit targets even if the Colts are trailing. 

T.Y. Hilton, who led the Colts in air yards by 346 in the regular season, makes for the most logical run-back option alongside a Bills stack. Hilton had at least seven targets in four of his final five regular season games, and had the seventh most air yards among all wideouts from Week 14-17. 

If you can’t jam Hilton into your Wildly Incredible Super Duper Wild Card Weekend DFS lineup, you could hold your nose, cover your eyes, quiet your gag reflex, and use a Colts tight end alongside Allen and one or two of his pass catchers. 

Buffalo has been a sneaky tight end streaming target for months now. No team gave up more tight end receptions than the Bills this season, as enemy tight ends have seen 8.5 targets per game against Buffalo. Last week in comically negative game script, Miami tight ends commanded 16 targets against the Bills. Jack Doyle for some reason has emerged as the Colts’ primary pass catching tight end over the past four weeks. He ran the most pass routes and drew 14 targets to Mo Alie-Cox’s four targets and Trey Burton’s six targets over that stretch. While Indy’s tight end pecking order is subject to change at any point, Doyle isn’t priced like the tight end running the most routes and seeing the most targets. 

 

Ravens (-3.5) @ Titans

Over/under: 54.5

Unfortunately for us, everyone with an internet connection knows this game features the highest over-under of the week. There will be stacks on stacks on stacks featuring Ravens and Titans. 

Derrick Henry should be in a few DFS lineups this week. Maybe all of them. We’ll have to see. When the Titans beat the Ravens a month and a half ago, Henry turned 28 carries into 133 yards and a touchdown. In the Titans’ postseason dismantling of Baltimore last January, Henry rushed for 195 yards on 33 carries. Matchups don’t matter with Henry, who should be in any DFS tournament lineup predicated on a Baltimore-Tennessee game stack. 

A.J. Brown is the normie correlation stack with Lamar Jackson and a Ravens pass catcher. Corey Davis, who caught five of seven targets for 113 yards in the Titans’ last meeting with Baltimore, is the slightly-less-normie option. Drops have plagued him of late and destroyed what would have been solid stat lines. Davis over the past four weeks is still second on the team in targets behind Brown, and his 12.9 fantasy points under expectation over the past two weeks positions him as a low-priced wideout with upside that could be plugged into a lineup with Henry, Jackson, and a Baltimore pass catcher. 

Tennessee profiles as a pass-funnel defense, and has for some time. Nearly 70 percent of the yards gained against the Titans this season have come via the pass -- the seventh highest rate in the league.

Though Marquise Brown was blanked on just three targets when these teams squared off in November, he now looks to be the likeliest candidate to take advantage of a generous Tennessee coverage unit. He’s the 16th priciest wide receiver on the Saturday-Sunday DraftKings slate and the 17th highest price wideout on FanDuel after notching six touchdowns over the final five regular season games while challenging Mark Andrews for target supremacy (Andrews had a 33 percent target share over that span, 2 percent higher than Brown). A track meet or a game that sees Baltimore playing from behind should inflate Brown’s targets that’s been gouged for the second most receiver receptions in 2020. 

Andrews, who caught five of seven targets for 96 yards and a touchdown last time these teams met, could be worth his hefty Wild Card price tag. Andrews has dominated targets when Baltimore faces zone defense, taking in 37 percent of Jackson's targets, per Pro Football Focus. Tennessee mostly deployed zone defense the last time they played the Ravens. Lucky for us. Probably you're going to have to choose between stacking Jackson with Andrews or Brown in the Ravens' low-volume passing attack. 

 

Bears (+10.5) @ Saints

Over/under: 47.5

The Saints, with the second highest implied total this weekend, present all manner of justifiable stacks (I often justify my stacks to my dog, since no one else will listen). There will be lots of Alvin Kamara -- who’s expected back from the COVID-19 list -- along with Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders, and maybe a little Taysom Hill for the galaxy brain afflicted. 

But we must not ignore Jared Cook. With his pass routes climbing back to 23 per game over the past month and Cook enjoying a 15 percent target share over that stretch, he could take full advantage of a tasty little matchup. Chicago gave up the sixth most tight end catches this season on 7.95 tight end targets per contest. 

I think this game lends itself to a secondary stack -- one that doesn’t involve a quarterback. That would mean you throw Cook, Kamara, or Sanders -- maybe two of those three -- into a lineup with Allen Robinson or David Montgomery. We could very well see DFS player shy away from Robinson after his debacle of a Week 17 against Green Bay. Any game in which the Bears see massive negative script is going to (almost) guarantee double digit targets for A-Rob. Mooney’s Week 17 target domination (he saw 13 looks against the Packers) hardly put a dent in Robinson’s alpha status in Chicago’s offense (and Mooney is out for Sunday's game). Robinson -- who has eight end zone targets over his past four outings -- owns 43.3 percent of the team’s air yards since Week 13. You don’t need me to tell you he pairs well alongside a Saint or two. 

Cole Kmet has no some hard luck while ascending to the top of Chicago's tight end depth chart. He's well under his expected fantasy production over the past three weeks and his usage remains rock solid. The Saints are a low-key fantastic matchup too: tight ends have seen a 24.45 percent target share against the New Orleans defense, the second highest mark in the league. Kmet happens to be priced below Jimmy Graham on DraftKings. Curious. Curious indeed. 

 

Meandering Wild Card DFS Thoughts

  • Going against a Rams Defense that allows the lowest EPA per pass attempt, yards per pass attempt, and yards per completion, D.K. Metcalf -- amazingly priced below Tyler Lockett on DraftKings -- is going to have rock-bottom ownership this week. That alone makes him an appealing -- if volatile -- option in large-field GPPs. I’m not wild about stacking Metcalf with Russell Wilson; I think he’s better used with a secondary stack alongside Cam Akers or Robert Woods or -- galaxy brain alert -- Gerald Everett, who saw seven targets from John Wolford last week and racked up nearly 100 air yards. 

 

  • Everyone’s favorite PPR cheat code, J.D. McKissic, happens to play a Tampa defense that’s allowed the most running back receptions this season. The Bucs allow 7.75 targets per game to backs and McKissic -- who led the league in running back pass routes this season -- saw at least eight targets in eight games this year. He should be thrown into lineups that go heavy on Bucs players. 

 

  • Pittsburgh’s implied total has risen to 26.5 points amidst the Browns’ COVID apocalypse. If the Steelers are going to put up a bunch of points this week, it’s certainly not going to be on the ground. Only 24 percent of the team’s touchdowns this season have been of the rushing variety, the third lowest rate in the NFL. Pittsburgh passing game stacks could be weirdly unique in Absolutely Crazy Super Duper Wild Card Weekend DFS tournaments.

 

C.D. Carter

C.D. Carter is co-host of Living The Stream, owner of DraftDayConsultants.com and author of fantasy football books, including How To Think Like A Fantasy Football Winner. He can be found on Twitter @cdcarter13. He never logs off.