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Corey Knebel
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Saves and Steals

Bullpen Review: NL Central

by Brad Johnson

Another week, another mostly static free agent update. Craig Kimbrel remains at large with nary a rumor as to his eventual destination. Bud Norris appeared on a radio show a week ago, saying “I have a couple small offers, but they're truly offers that I can't entertain.” If Norris can’t find a deal coming off a strong platform season, then it’s no surprise Ryan Madson remains jobless after a shaky 2018. He is considering sitting out the 2019 season, ostensibly due to a lack of offers.

 

With that free agent update out of the way, it’s time to continue our division-by-division bullpen reviews. We’ve already covered the NL East and AL East. There’s also a high-level look at every bullpen via the All Bullpen Audit. Let’s move along to the NL Central.

 

I welcome any and all criticism or suggestions. Think I missed somebody? Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @BaseballATeam.

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Corey Knebel

Josh Hader

Jeremy Jeffress

Alex Claudio

 

The Brewers are in the conversation for top bullpen in the league. Ultimately that crown belongs to the Yankees, but Milwaukee is at least close enough to merit discussion. Knebel isn’t the best reliever on the roster – that distinction belongs to Hader. However, Knebel is still an easy top 10 closer when on a roll. In many ways, he’s similar to Craig Kimbrel. Expect big velocity, strikeouts aplenty, and the occasional bout with poor command. That was the issue during his slump of homeritis in 2018.

 

If Knebel slumps again, Hader could once more temporarily step out of his multi-inning fireman role. The southpaw is a deceptive fly ball pitcher. Unbelievably, he actually has room to improve. His command is merely adequate, and he allowed higher than average hard contact and home run rates. It’s fair to wonder how long the Brewers can lean on him as a frequently used, multi-inning weapon before it impacts his performance. Typically, premium relievers like Hader quickly transition to a more traditional bullpen role.

 

Jeffress had an odd 2018 campaign. After making a name for himself as somebody who stringently avoids hard contact, he coughed up frequent hard grounders and liners last year. Despite this, a low BABIP, high strand rate, and burgeoning strikeout rate allowed him to post a 1.29 ERA. The increased strikeouts were the result of throwing more offspeed pitches. That may also be the source of the new hard contact. Personally, I expect several forms of regression in 2019 – BABIP, strand rate, and hard contact. Add it all together and we’re looking at around a 2.90 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and a 1.20 WHIP. He could close for many teams. With the Brewers, he’s a top holds target.

 

Speaking of holds, that’s the best use case for Alex Claudio. The erstwhile Rangers closer don’t post big strikeout numbers, but he does limit baserunners by issuing few walks. Batted balls are generally on the ground. A variety of pitchers will battle to fill the rest of the pen. Matt Albers is coming off a rough season. He’s had a weird career of alternatingly great and terrible seasons. Jacob Barnes and Taylor Williams are both fine middle relievers of modest repute. The losers of the rotation battle between Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta might find a job. Junior Guerra has already been pushed from starter to reliever. His splitters could play up in relief.

 

St. Louis Cardinals

 

Andrew Miller

Jordan Hicks

Dakota Hudson

Luke Gregerson

Brett Cecil

John Brebbia

Dominic Leone

Chasen Shreve

 

Perhaps we should begin with the elephants in the room – starting pitchers Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes. Both are recovering from injuries which impact their availability in 2019. With Reyes, I suspect the Cardinals don’t want to start down the slippery slope of putting him in the bullpen. Or is it a sticky slope? Prospects of Reyes’ type – hard throwers with unrefined offspeed stuff – often never return from so-called temporary stints in relief.

 

Martinez is currently on the shelf for two weeks with shoulder discomfort. The issue is one of recovery, meaning that a shift to the bullpen shouldn’t be viewed as a panacea. He probably can’t pitch on back-to-back days. At least not with any consistency. If he’s unable to shake the slow recoveries, he might be most helpful to the 2019 Cardinals as an every-seven-days starter or an infrequently used multi-inning guy.

 

Even without Martinez and Reyes in the bullpen, St. Louis has an able-bodied staff - assuming half of them don’t immediately land on the injured list. Gregerson is recovering from a shoulder issue. Miller lost most of last season to shoulder, knee, and hamstring injuries. He’s also battled forearm and elbow discomfort in recent years. A healthy Miller is clearly the top reliever in this unit. The Cardinals front office claims the club won’t use a traditional closer. Miller is still the best bet to earn the bulk of the saves.

 

We have to remember a few things about Hicks before we get lost in the spectacle of his 102 mph, runaway train fastball. Hicks struggled to induce swinging strikes and strikeouts last season despite jaw dropping stuff. Command was a huge issue – he often only had a vague sense of where a pitch would finish. On the plus side, hitters rarely managed better than soft, ground ball contact. His solid 2018 campaign came after skipping Double- and Triple-A entirely. Most pitchers his age are still honing their stuff in the low minors. There’s room for improvement, decline, and everything in between.

 

Hudson is a hard-throwing ground ball pitcher. In many ways, he’s a less exciting version of Hicks. He didn’t allow a single home run in 27.1 innings. He also posted just 6.26 K/9 and 5.93 BB/9. Brebbia is probably a better bet for holds after notching 10.66 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9. A fly ball pitcher, he offers an entirely different look than Hicks and Hudson. Cecil reported to camp in the “best shape of his life.” He was a successful lefty specialist in past seasons before a disaster 2018. Southpaws Shreve and non-roster invitee Tommy Layne could battle for Cecil’s job.

 

It’s going to take some time for St. Louis to sort out this collection of high talent, unrefined arms. Once they do, I expect them to form a frightening relief corp.

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.