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Kirby Yates
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Saves and Steals

Yates Dominates

by Brad Johnson

While baseballs continue to fly out of ballparks in record setting quantities, closers are struggling to put together big save totals for their fantasy owners. There are a few exceptions. For instance, Kirby Yates is once again among the weekly leaders. He tied with Aroldis Chapman and Blake Treinen with three saves over the last week. Yates leads the league by a comfortable margin. His 19 saves are followed by Shane Greene (15) and Kenley Jansen (14).

And now, shall we go to the tiers?

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Tier 1: The King (1)

Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

Last week, I warned readers of a one mph drop in Diaz’s fastball velocity. The bad news is he’s still missing that little bit of zip. The good news is his velocity is very consistent appearance to appearance. We can try to draw a range of conclusions from the evidence. Perhaps he’s hurt. Perhaps he’s intentionally saving some reserves. Perhaps it’s whatever lurks behind Door Number Three. The simple truth is, we don’t have enough information. We’re reading tea leaves and, contrary to what you aunt may say, this is no science in reading tea leaves. They’re just lumps of plant matter.

Something just a little weird is happening with Diaz.

Tier 2: Nearly Elite (8)

Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres

Felipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Roberto Osuna, Houston Astros

Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics

Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals

Yates has now struck out the side in six of his last nine appearances. He’s presently the owner of the most unhittable splitter in the league. The Astros bullpen is plain unhittable. Osuna is fronted by Ryan Pressly. The pair have combined to allow one run, 16 hits, and two walks over 42.1 innings. What they lack in strikeouts, they make up for in pristine ratios.

Vazquez ran afoul of a two-run home run. He remains a top five closer. We can argue over the exact order after Diaz. It’s a very tight race for second-best. Our old friend Chapman is rolling a career-best 1.93 BB/9. The difference between elite Chapman and the very good Chapman is walks.

Tier 3: Warty Relief Aces (4)

Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals

Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays

Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox

As a reminder, the difference between Hand and the next tier up is an expectation of more home runs in the future. Qualitatively, he’s very similar to the back-end Tier 2 arms. Doolittle is here mostly due to past recurring shoulder issues. A weak bullpen in Washington will increase the strain on him. Giles is ranked here because of his long history of spontaneous combustion.

Barnes is a bad week from losing this role. Fortunately, he’s shown no signs of difficulty. He’s produced Tier 1 quality rates to date. The only thing missing are the actual saves. Most recently, he pitched the eighth inning against the middle of the Astros lineup. Brandon Workman cleaned up the bottom of the order in the ninth inning. Expect this reversal of roles to occur every so often. Incidentally, Workman seems to have leapfrogged Ryan Brasier in the pecking order.

Tier 4: Core Performers (5)

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Will Smith, San Francisco Giants

Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds

Alex Colome, Chicago White Sox

Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers

Sometime soon, a would-be contender – perhaps the Nationals – is going to dip into the trade market for bullpen help. Smith, Colome, and Greene are three of the five most likely relievers to be dealt. It’s the only reason Smith is in this tier. Colome and Greene rightfully belong here with or without the risk of a trade to a setup role.

The Phillies could have really used Neris last night. He was unavailable after throwing five innings over the previous week. The Philadelphia bullpen turned a save situation into a walkoff loss. Pat Neshek was also unavailable.

Perhaps Iglesias’ public blow up a few weeks back was a positive event. For those who missed it, he whined about being used in tie games because it made his stats look bad. Since then, he hasn’t allowed a run over 7.2 innings. I bet he was given a talking to by management and, hopefully, responded positively. Or this could all be a bunch of natural variance. Iglesias is a little too homer prone to be an ideal closer, especially with Great American Ballpark as his home field.

Tier 5: Red Flag Club (7)

Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Los Angeles Angels

Greg Holland, Arizona Diamondbacks

Steve Cishek, Chicago Cubs

Jose Alvarado, Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays

Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles

Shawn Kelley, Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers

Luke Jackson, Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves

Buttrey continues to pitch ahead of Robles. His two saves have come in multi-inning appearances. Blowing a tied game on Monday doesn’t help his case to close in place of Robles. Even with the hiccup, Buttrey is clearly superior to Robles. The prophesied role reversal is delayed by another couple weeks.

The Yankees got to both Alvarado and Castillo for three runs apiece last week. They remain eerily similar. The Bombers also roughed up Givens for five runs on Monday.

The Rangers announced Leclerc would regain the closer role soon. Not yet though. Kelley earned the save yesterday and nabbed another one this afternoon. With Kelley having worked two days in a row, perhaps now Leclerc will get the next opportunity. Chris Martin’s run as closer was short-lived. He’s allowed a home run in three straight appearances.

When I expressed doubt about Jackson’s breakout, it was because I didn’t believe he would sustain an over-70 percent ground ball rate. Despite two consecutive rough outings, he’s continued to burn worms like a sadist. His most recent meltdown was reminiscent of a bad Zack Britton outing – the Giants were fortunate enough to string together some seeing-eye hits. While everybody is calling for Newcomb to ascend, I have serious reservations about his newfound 0.00 BB/9 in relief. Walks have always been his number one nemesis.

Brad Johnson
You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.