AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach, CA
Overnight co-leader and World No. 246 Ted Potter, Jr. orchestrated a 3-under-par 33-36=69 in Sunday’s final round at Pebble Beach Golf Links to wrap on 17-under 270, good for a three-shot win over four players, including 36- and 54-hole co-leader and playing competitor Dustin Johnson, who shot 72.
The 34-year-old, a pre-tourney 300/1 outright, bags his second PGA TOUR title in 84 career events, joining his maiden win at the 2012 Greenbrier Classic 68 starts ago during his rookie campaign. It’s his first top-10 finish since T6 at the 2013 Greenbrier in his title defense.
“I’m sure everybody knew going into this tournament Dustin’s probably going to win the golf tournament, so I knew I’m the underdog there… what do I got to lose, really? Just go out there and try to play the best golf I could today and see what happens,” Potter remarked afterwards.
The two-time Web.com Tour grad improves to 4-for-9 on the season with two top 25s (T13, The RSM Classic), earns a two-year exemption on TOUR and invites to a host of tournaments, including the Masters, PLAYERS, WGC-Bridgestone, PGA Championship and the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Pretty amazing stuff, considering he’d hoped to just play well enough to get into this coming week’s Genesis Open.
1- Ted Potter, Jr. 68-71-62-69= 270 (-17)
T2- Phil Mickelson 69-65-72-67= 273 (-14)
T2- Chez Reavie 67-72-66-68= 273 (-14)
T2- Jason Day 69-65-69-70= 273 (-14)
T2- Dustin Johnson 67-64-70-72= 273 (-14)
Potter, Jr. is now 2-for-4 at the AT&T Pro-Am with two top 25s. He missed the cut in 2012 and 2014 and was T16 in 2013, where he co-led after 36 holes (67-67-73-70) with eventual champ Brandt Snedeker.
Other than that, was there any sign(s) pointing to a potential win this week?
Not really, other than the above-mentioned T13 at The RSM Classic back in November and an opening 66 in his last start at the Farmers, where he followed with 75-74-82 for T73.
Potter, Jr. is the second triple-digit outright odd’s winner this season, joining Ryan Armour (100/1) at the opposite-field Sanderson Farms, and just the SIXTH in the last 61 events:
2017 PLAYERS: Si Woo Kim (400/1)
2017 Puerto Rico Open: D.A. Points (175/1)
2017 RSM: Mac Hughes (200/1)
2017 Shriners: Rod Pampling (250/1)
Of note however, he’s also the second in the last three editions at the AT&T Pro-Am, joining Vaughn Taylor’s improbable win in 2016 as an alternate (250/1).
While this was Potter, Jr.’s second TOUR title, it’s his most notable to date with a Strength of Field rating of 392.
The 2012 Greenbrier had a SOF rating of 286.
2018 AT&T Pro-Am (54-hole co-leader)
R4: began T1
Shot: 3-under 69
Winning Margin: 3 shots
Career Start: 84
2012 Greenbrier (come from behind, 4-shot deficit)
R4: began 6th
Shot: 6-under 64
Winning Margin: PLAYOFF
Career Start: 16
Wins by Season:
2016: 0 (exhausted Major Medical Extension)
2014: 0 (ankle injury; surgery)
Two-time Web.com Tour grad: 2017, 2011
Career Web starts: 110
Career Web wins: 2 (both in 2011)
Career Web runners-up: 2 (both in 2017)
Potter, Jr. finished 10thin the WCT Priority Rankings in 2017 to earn his way back onto the main stage. He is the third winner on TOUR this season to remove themselves from the WCT grad reshuffle list: Ryan Armour (Sanderson Farms); Austin Cook (RSM).
Web.com Tour in 2017:
15 cuts made
12 top 25s
6 top 10s
3 top 3s
Potter, Jr.’s best finish in the FedExCup standings in three full seasons on TOUR (2012-14), and that came in his rookie season. In his career, he’s missed more cuts (46) than he’s made (38):
84: career starts
38: cuts made (45%)
12: top 25s (14%)
4: top 10s (5%)
2: top 5s
How Potter, Jr. Won on Sunday:
After kicking off in 68-71 and week- and career-low 62, the Floridian began T1 with Johnson.
He played with his amateur partner while Johnson’s amateur partner (Wayne Gretzky) WD prior to R4. This was a rather significant development as the now-3-ball was delayed several times in the final round by the foursome(s) ahead. One such delay was clocked (by an on-course announcer) at 17 minutes on the 71st hole. It’s hard to say for sure who this favored, (no one), but perhaps it was a contributing factor.
On 12 (of 14) fairways and 12 greens in regulation, Potter, Jr. went out in 3-under and built a two-shot lead at the break, overcoming a 3-putt bogey-5 at hole 1 (from 18'10") with four circles at 2, 4, 6 and 7, the latter a pitch-in 2 at the signature par-3 seventh.
From there, he coasted home with 11 straight pars and ended up 6-for-6 on the day in scrambling. Potter, Jr. posted 1.833 putts per GIR and 0.504 SG: Putting with 27 total putts, and canned three par-savers from between four and nine feet at 3, 5 and 12.
For his part, Johnson went out in level-par, now three down, and never closed the gap. He traded four bogeys with four birdies, all from inside of five feet, and two of those 2-putt varieties. The 17-time TOUR winner and 2-time AT&T champ never dropped that significant putt to get him going and missed three putts from inside of nine feet coming in. He settles for an 11th career runner-up (224 career events), second this season in three starts (T2, WGC-HSBC), and second at Pebble Beach (T2/2014).
Potter, Jr.: 1-T73-CUT-CUT-T13-CUT-CUT-CUT-T28
Johnson, D: T2-1-T2
Round 4 Stats Comparison of Final Pairing (ranking of 75 players):
Potter, Jr.: 0.22 (33rd)
Johnson, D: 1.6 (3rd)
Potter, Jr.: 0.43 (29th)
Johnson, D: -2.19 (66th)
Potter, Jr.: 1.9 (4th)
Johnson, D: 1.47 (9th)
Potter, Jr.: 0.5 (25th)
Johnson, D: -0.83 (47th)
Potter, Jr.: 3.05 (T11)
Johnson, D: 0.05 (T33)
Potter, Jr.: 27 (T14)
Johnson, D: 27 (T14)
Field Scoring Average:
This was the 77thplaying of the AT&T Pro-Am and 71st straight edition with the 6,816-yard par-72 (36-36) Pebble Beach Golf Links (PB) serving as host. Joining the 3-course rotation for the first three rounds were the 6,958-yard par-71 (34-37) Monterey Peninsula CC’s Shore Course (MP) and the 6,953-yar par-72 (36-36) Spyglass Hill Golf Course (SH), with the final round contested at PB.
The cumulative scoring averages: R1: 70.699; R2: 71.161; R3: 71.994; R4: 72.053
Potter, Jr. posted rounds of 68-71-62-69
Potter Jr.’s Weekly Stats (ranking of 75 players):
Note: strokes gained stats were only collected on PB, so are not listed below
Eagles: 1 (T5)
Birdies: 24 (1st) career most
Bogeys: 9 (T27)
Par-3 Scoring: 3.06 (T41)
Par-4 Scoring: 3.82 (2nd)
Par-5 Scoring: 4.31 (2nd)
Driving Accuracy: 42/55 (T13) at 76.36%
GIR: 53/72 (T9) at 73.61%
Putts per GIR: 1.642 (4th)
Total Putts: 107 (4th)
Putts by Round: 29-26-25-27
Scrambling: 13/19 (T19) at 68.42%
All Around: (7th)
Potter, Jr.’s Position by Round:
Note: R3 was the fifth time Potter, Jr. was in the top 10 thru 54 holes (84 career events). His previous-high position was 6th at the 2012 Greenbrier; shot 6-under 64; won 2-man playoff (Troy Kelly).
Leader/co-leaders by Round:
R1: Kevin Streelman (finished 6th): Drops to 0-for-3 as 18-hole leader/co-leader
R1: Beau Hossler (T43): Drops to 0-for-1
R2: Dustin Johnson (T2): Drops to 7-for-14 as 36-hole leader/co-leader
R2: Beau Hossler (T43): Drops to 0-for-1
R3: Ted Potter, Jr. (Won): Improves to 1-for-1 as 54-hole leader/co-leader
R3: Dustin Johnson (T2): Drops to 8-for-15*
*Note: DJ is now 1-for-5 when CO-LEADING after 54 holes; 7-for-10 when the outright leader.
No traditional draw, so we’ll concentrate on the 3-course rotation.
A total of 75 pros from a field of 156 pros (52 on each course) made the scheduled 54-hole cut of 3-under 212 (16, T60 on the number).
Breakdown of the 75 pros who made it to R4:
PB: 25 (1 WD)
MP: 23 (1 WD)
The course rotation alternates in even/odd years.
By example, 2018 is the same rotation as 2016, 2014, etc.
This is where the majority of your attention needs to be for future AT&T’s as SEVEN of the past EIGHT champs have all won on the SAME rotation:
2018: Potter, Jr. (PB-SH-MP)
2016: Taylor, V (PB-SH-MP)
2014: Walker (PB-SH-MP)
2017: Spieth (MP-SH-PB)
2015: Snedeker (MP-SH-PB)
2013: Snedeker (MP-SH-PB)
2011: Points (MP-SH-PB)
R2: 64: Dustin Johnson (MP)
R3: 62: Ted Potter, Jr. (MP)
(SH): Kevin Streelman (65); Kevin Mitchell (67)
(PB): Beau Hossler (65)
(SH): Ben Martin (66)
Multiple bogey-free rounds:
Streelman (x3); Hossler (x2)
Career-Best Finishes (TOUR members):
Updated Top 10 in FEC standings (points):
Potter, Jr. collects 500 FEC points for the victory and jumps 102 places to a career-high 15th in the FEC standings. Patton Kizzire (idle) stays atop the standings for a fifth event in a row and seventh week overall this season.
1. Patton Kizzire (1,247)
2. Jon Rahm (936)
3. Dustin Johnson (902); UP four
4. Jason Day (814); UP six
5. Brendan Steele (812); DOWN two
6. Chez Reavie (789); UP seven, career high
7. Pat Perez (778); DOWN two
8. Gary Woodland (750); DOWN three
9. Austin Cook (721); DOWN three
10. Justin Thomas (688); DOWN two
Updated Top 10 in OWGR:
With a Strength of Field rating of 392 (up from 350 last year), Potter, Jr. banks 54.00 world-ranking points and catapults 173 spots to a career-high 73rd in OWGR.
2. Jon Rahm
5. Justin Rose
8. Jason Day; UP two
10. Rory McIlroy; DOWN two
Field Breakdown & Top-10 Finishes:
OWGR field average: 367th
OWGR average for top-10 finishers: 138th
11 of the Top 25 in OWGR were in the field
3 finished in the top 10
18 of the Top 50 OWGR
5 finished in the top 10
No. 1 Dustin Johnson (T2)
No. 10 Jason Day (T2)
No. 17 Paul Casey (T8)
No. 34 Kevin Chappell (T8)
No. 41 Phil Mickelson (T2)
Overall, 14 players finished in the top 10.
Other Top 10s:
No. 61 Chez Reavie (T2)
No. 84 Jimmy Walker (T8)
No. 125 Grayson Murray (T8)
No. 162 Brian Gay (T8)
No. 167 Kevin Streelman (6th)
No. 191 Patrick Rodgers (T8)
No. 246 Ted Potter, Jr. (Won)
No. 278 Scott Stallings (7th)
No. 520 Troy Merritt (T8)
No. 2 Jon Rahm (T26)
No. 3 Jordan Spieth (T20); defender
No. 8 Rory McIlroy (CUT)
No. 18 Matt Kuchar (T62)
No. 19 Pat Perez (T35)
No. 21 Rafa Cabrera Bello (T26)
No. 23 Charley Hoffman (WD)
No. 24 Patrick Reed (CUT)
No. 26 Gary Woodland (CUT)
Season Leaders in Top-10 Finishes:
5: Brian Harman
Consecutive Top 10s on TOUR:
6: Justin Rose (T8-1-T10-T2-T10-T10)
3: Dustin Johnson (T2-1-T2)
2: Phil Mickelson (T2-T5)
2: Chez Reavie (T2-P2)
2: Jason Day (T2-P1)
2: Brian Gay (T8-T9)
Consecutive Top-10 streaks ended:
Consecutive Top-25 streaks on TOUR:
10: Jason Day (T2-P1-T11-T11-T17-4-T25-T6-T9-T24)
6: Justin Rose (T8-1-T10-T2-T10-T10)
6: Justin Thomas (T17-T14-T22-P1-T17-2)
5: Paul Casey (T8-T11-T19-T7-5)
4: Daniel Berger (T11-T14-T11-T24)
4: Dustin Johnson (T2-1-T2-T17)
Consecutive Top-25 streaks ENDED at:
3: Gary Woodland (CUT-P1-T12-T7)
3: Rafa Cabrera Bello (T26-T5-T11-T10)
2: Patrick Reed (CUT-T17-T23)
2: Sam Saunders (T26-T8-T25)
Season Leaders in Top-25 finishes:
8: Chez Reavie
TOUR Rookies &/or First-Timers:
Top-10 finishes: 0
Aaron Wise: The California resident shared top-rookie honors with T15 on 9-under 278 (65-69-74-70). It’s the first time he’s been low rookie this season in nine starts.
Season Form: T15-CUT-T17-CUT-T13-CUT-T32-T25-CUT
Made Cuts: 5
Top 25s: 4
Top 10s: 0
FEC Rank: 69th (UP 11)
OWGR: 187th (UP 23); career high
Brandon Harkins: The California native and Cal State-Chico alum shared top-rookie honors with T15 on 9-under 278 (68-71-73-66). It’s the third time he’s been low rookie this season in 10 starts, with all three taking place in California.
Season Form: T15-CUT-T12-T8-T25-T49-T25-T20-CUT-T9
Made Cuts: 8
Top 25s: 7
Top 10s: 2
FEC Rank: 31st (UP one)
OWGR: 213th (UP 21); career high
Top-10 finishes: 1
Patrick Rodgers: The Stanford product was top debutant with T8 on 10-under 277 (70-65-69-73).
Season Form: T8-CUT-CUT-WD-CUT-T14-CUT-T33-T23-T43
Made Cuts: 5
Top 25s: 3
Top 10s: 1
FEC Rank: 72nd (UP 26)
OWGR: 167th (UP 24)
Picking a Winner:
Through 14 events this season:
4 winners were in their 20s
8 were in their 30s (Potter, Jr.: age: 34)
2 were in their 40s
10 (of 14) winners had a top-25 finish the start prior (71.4%):
Potter, Jr.? No, T73 (Farmers)
4 (of 14) winners had a top-10 finish the start prior (28.5%)
Average winner’s pre-tourney odds outright (rounded)
In the last 107 events on TOUR, the pre-tourney fave/co-fave has won 8 times for a conversion percentage of 7.4%.
2 pre-tourney faves/co-fave won:
Jon Rahm: 8/1 (CareerBuilder)
Justin Thomas: 15/2 (CJ CUP)
4 pre-tourney faves/co-fave won:
Henrik Stenson: 14/1 Wyndham (co-fave)
Jordan Spieth: 12/1 The Open
Jordan Spieth: 8/1 Travelers
Dustin Johnson: 13/2 WGC-Mexico
This week’s favorite(s):
Dustin Johnson (11/2): Finished T2, his third straight top 2 to open the season. DJ’s been the 54-hole leader/co-leader in all three of his starts, so realistically, he should/could have three wins already this season, instead of just one.
Last week’s winner(s):
Gary Woodland (CUT)