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The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 11

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

We've made it to the final week with teams on bye and there's some firepower that has to find your bench in Week 11 with the Steelers, Saints, Giants and then the Browns off this week. Here's the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 11 games in a PPR fashion....

 

Tennessee vs. Jacksonville


Titans @ Jaguars
3 Spread -3
20 Team O/U 23
60.9 Plays/Gm 66.3
60.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
40.2% Rush % 35.7%
59.9% Pass % 64.3%
46.7% Opp. Rush % 41.5%
53.3% Opp. Pass % 58.5%

 

  • Allen Hurns has caught a touchdown now in seven consecutive games. The last player to do that was Wes Welker over 2012 and into 2013 with Patriots and Broncos.
  • Allen Robinson leads the league in passing targets on throws 15 or more yards downfield with 42 and Hurns ranks 9th with 26.
  • Marqise Lee returned last week and played 24 snaps and had 11.1 percent of the team targets.
  • Tennessee has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of their passes over the past three weeks (31st).
  • Blake Bortles has completed just 55.3 percent of his passes this season, lowest of all quarterbacks to start every game.
  • The Titans have four or more touchdowns in three games (Saints, Bucs and Colts), but just seven touchdowns total in their other six games.
  • Jacksonville has allowed 15 or more points to eight straight quarterbacks who include Matt Hasselbeck, E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston.
  • The Jaguars are allowing a league low 3.3 yards rushing per attempt.

 

Trust: Allen Robinson (five straight weeks as a top-18 receiver, seeing 10.6 targets per week since Week 1)

 

Bust: Antonio Andrews (the usage and effectiveness just aren’t consistent), Julius Thomas (has one week above TE28 since returning), Jacksonville running game (T.J. Yeldon sounds doubtful to begin with, so even if he’s active I’m not feeling strongly, Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart splitting reps isn’t endearing either)

 

Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (his bottom lines have been highly usable, but Thursday night and with the Titans allowing just three top-10 quarterbacks on the season have me expecting a high QB2 performance), Allen Hurns (his targets have finally been steadily high, but being nicked up with multiple injuries on a short week keeps his ceiling in question), Marcus Mariota (limited weaponry doesn’t have me excited, but the Jags have provided a safe floor of points for opposing quarterbacks), Delanie Walker (he’s the only piece of this offense you feel good about and it’s mostly for his floor), Dorial Green-Beckham (his snaps keep rising with inconsistent target levels, but this is a matchup where he can get over with available targets), Dexter McCluster (can disappear in an instant, but the Titans should struggle to run inside)

 

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St. Louis vs. Baltimore


Rams @ Ravens
2.5 Spread -2.5
20 Team O/U 21.5
57.2 Plays/Gm 67.2
65.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.7
47.2% Rush % 36.4%
52.8% Pass % 63.6%
43.5% Opp. Rush % 39.6%
56.5% Opp. Pass % 60.4%

 

  • Since Week 5, the Rams rank 31st in scoring rate per drive (25.8 percent) and 30th in touchdown rate (12.1 percent) per possession.
  • The Rams run 66.7 percent of the time on first down, highest rate in the league. League average is 50.2 percent.
  • Baltimore has trailed for 68.9 percent of their offensive plays this season, the second highest total in the league.
  • Joe Flacco is on pace for 656 pass attempts this season. His career high is 614 back in 2013.
  • Flacco is averaging 276.9 passing yards per game, his career high of 249.1 yards was set last season.
  • The Rams have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just two games this season, tied with Denver for the fewest in the league.
  • In the two games without Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken has 25.7 percent and 31.1 percent of the team targets.
  • Justin Forsett has just three rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line this season, the same amount as Flacco.

 

Trust: Todd Gurley (even in a tough paper draw, he is the offense and has had back to back top-12 weeks against poor paper matchups)

 

Bust: Justin Forsett (you’re getting 15 touches, but the Ravens have abandoned running the ball despite playing tight games and Forsett has not been effective through the air to compensate), Chris Givens (his touchdown covered the fact that he had just 15.6 percent of the team targets, which is right where Aiken was beforehand), Case Keenum (I can see where you can paint a picture of selling this matchup as promising, but we weren’t going to be on Foles either)

 

Reasonable Return: Joe Flacco (the Rams play with a stone age pace, so he’ll need to be efficient with his opportunities and hit a big play or two like Jay Cutler like week), Kamar Aiken (he’s the one with the target spike and the floor to latch onto), Crockett Gillmore (his target level remains minuscule, but if he can find usage, the Rams have allowed five or more receptions to six different tight ends)

 

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Washington vs. Carolina


Washington @ Panthers
7 Spread -7
20 Team O/U 27
64.2 Plays/Gm 65.9
61.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.9
40.1% Rush % 51.1%
59.9% Pass % 48.9%
44.6% Opp. Rush % 36.4%
55.4% Opp. Pass % 63.6%

 

  • Despite missing two games, Jordan Reed's 15 targets in the red zone trail only Rob Gronkowski (16) for all tight ends.
  • Since DeSean Jackson returned, Reed has 16.9 percent of the team targets. He had 24.4 percent prior.
  • Matt Jones' 37.1 percent snap share was his lowest total for a game since Week 5.
  • Carolina has faced the fourth most passes attempts this season, but ranks first in passing points allowed in per attempt (.284) and first in adjusted yards per attempt (4.9 yards) per throw.
  • Washington is allowing 5.0 yards per attempt (31st). Carolina leads the league in rushing attempts per game (33.7 attempts).
  • Cam Newton has 72.6 rushing points on the season. The next highest quarterback (Tyrod Taylor) has 36.3 points.
  • Jonathan Stewart has seven games with 15 or more rushing attempts, tied with Chris Ivory for the second most in the league behind Adrian Peterson's eight.
  • Carolina has trailed for just 22.3 percent of their offensive plays, the second lowest total in the league.
  • Panthers rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line: Cam Newton (8), Stewart (8), Mike Tolbert (4).

 

Trust: Cam Newton (the game script should be a Panthers' special in this one and Washington did lose contain on Ryan Fitzpatrick a few times in Week 6), Greg Olsen (he has at least 20 percent of the team targets in every game since Week 1 with five game of 30 percent of more)

 

Bust: All Washington players outside of Jordan Reed (back to business with the Washington offense here as Carolina is far from New Orleans)

 

Reasonable Return: Jordan Reed (he’s covered some low volume with scores, but is still their primary red zone threat and with the way Carolina defends wide receivers, will have to be leaned on if Washington is going to have success), Jonathan Stewart (you’re basically getting 8-15 points weekly depending on if he scores or not)

 

Denver vs. Chicago


Broncos @ Bears
1.5 Spread -1.5
20 Team O/U 21
63.2 Plays/Gm 65.8
64.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.8
36.0% Rush % 44.8%
64.0% Pass % 55.2%
41.4% Opp. Rush % 42.9%
58.6% Opp. Pass % 57.1%

 

  • While dealing with injury, Alshon Jeffery played just 53.8 percent of the snaps last week, his lowest total on the season.
  • Denver has allowed just two top-24 scoring receivers on the season.
  • Jeremy Langford is the first rookie running back to have back to back games with 70 rushing and receiving yards since Mewelde Moore in 2004.
  • The Bears are the only team other than Carolina to have at least 25 rushing attempts in every game this season.
  • Denver has allowed just 88.2 passing points on the season, the only team still in double digits.
  • Demaryius Thomas has converted just six of his past 47 red zone targets into touchdowns since the start of last season.
  • 31 players have more red zone touchdowns over that span and only Antonio Brown has matched Thomas' target total.
  • Denver has rushed for fewer than 70 yards as a team six times this season, matching Detroit for the fewest in the league.

 

Bust: Alshon Jeffery (the target potential is here if healthy to create a floor, but you’ll be happy to get out of here with anything close to upper single digit scoring), Emmanuel Sanders (dealing with a plethora of ailments and potential that Osweiler keys in on Thomas), Brock Osweiler (he can’t really be worse than Peyton for fantasy, but Chicago has only allowed two top-12 scoring quarterbacks), Denver running game (you’re already staying away, but if considering it only Adrian Peterson has rushed for 75 yards against Chicago over their past six games), Martellus Bennett (five or fewer targets in two of the past three games and has hit 60 receiving yards just once all season), Zach Miller (two of his three scores the past two weeks had a shade of fluky and Denver has allowed just one tight end to finish above TE12 this season), Ronnie Hillman (he's still the "guy" of the duo, but has surpassed 60 yards just twice all season and just one back has hit 60 yards on the gorund against Chicago over their past six games)

 

Reasonable Return: Jay Cutler (Cutler has 17 or more points in every start since returning Week 4 and has been agnostic to who is playing at his skill positions and matchups), Bears Backfield (if Forte misses again, bump up Langford as trustworthy. Langford has been too good to put back in the bottle, especially if Forte is still limited. Denver has allowed back to back top-15 backs and a top-20 back in five of their past six games due to reception levels, something both backs do well but if both are active, a ceiling is a lot to ask for out of one), Demaryius Thomas (he’s safe in regards to volume and a floor, but his ceiling has been compromised while consistently being held out of the end zone)

 

Dallas vs. Miami


Cowboys @ Dolphins
0 Spread 0
23.5 Team O/U 23.5
62.3 Plays/Gm 62.0
62.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.7
44.6% Rush % 34.8%
55.4% Pass % 65.2%
42.4% Opp. Rush % 46.6%
57.6% Opp. Pass % 53.4%

 

  • Jarvis Landry has scored double digit points in 18 consecutive games, the longest active streak for any wide receiver.
  • Lamar Miller leads all running backs with at least 30 targets in points per target at 2.02.
  • Dallas has allowed five or more receptions to six different running backs, the most in the league.
  • Miller's weekly ranks since the Dolphins' Week 5 bye have been the RB10, RB1, RB11, RB2 and the RB5.
  • Jay Ajayi has three runs of 20 or more yards over the past two weeks (the most in the league) on just 11 rushing attempts.
  • Dallas is allowing a touchdown pass just once every 34 pass attempts, the third best rate in the league.
  • Miami has allowed 400 or more yards of offense in five of their past seven games, with only Tennessee and Houston failing to reach that mark.
  • Over the past four games, Darren McFadden has 70.7 percent, 66.7, 93.1 and 80.9 percent of the Dallas rushing attempts.

 

Trust: Lamar Miller (has just 102 yards rushing over his past three games, but has found a ceiling through the air and near the goal line), Jarvis Landry (we know where the floor is and Dallas has been beaten by good interior receivers this season), Darren McFadden (I believe he gets the biggest bump with Romo active this week as Miami has been largely beaten on the ground and now Dallas won’t be completely one dimensional), Jason Witten (has been a top-12 tight end in just one of his past five games, but Miami has been giving to tight ends regularly, including 202 yards to Brent Celek and Zach Ertz last weekend)

 

Bust: Tony Romo (I’m more than happy he’s back, but more so for everyone else on offense this week as my expectations for players coming off of long layoffs are always low), Ryan Tannehill (has just two top-12 scoring weeks and Dallas has allowed just three quarterbacks to finish above QB16)

 

Reasonable Return: Dez Bryant (the ceiling is back in place, but with Romo possibly removing some rust, I’m expecting more of a middle ground to start), Rishard Matthews (we know his snaps aren’t in any jeopardy at this point and he’s had double digit scoring in seven of nine games)

 

Oakland vs. Detroit


Raiders @ Lions
-2 Spread 2
24.5 Team O/U 23
63.0 Plays/Gm 63.9
69.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.3
36.5% Rush % 30.6%
63.5% Pass % 69.4%
35.6% Opp. Rush % 44.2%
64.4% Opp. Pass % 55.8%

 

  • Oakland is allowing 3.8 red zone trips per game (29th) and Detroit is allowing 4.8 (32nd).
  • 49.9 percent of Derek Carr's fantasy production is from passing touchdowns, the highest percentage in the league.
  • Detroit has allowed 189.7 rushing points on the season, most in the league.
  • Clive Walford leads the Raiders in red zone targets over the past four games with four.
  • Calvin Johnson has just one 100-yard receiving game on the season, his fewest through nine games since having one in 2009.
  • No one faces more pass attempts per game than the Raiders (42.6).
  • After allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game over their previous five games, the Raiders have allowed 195 and 263 yards on the ground the past two weeks.
  • Oakland has allowed seven quarterbacks to hit 17 points or more in a game this season while Detroit has allowed eight, both second and third behind New Orleans (nine).

 

Trust: Matt Stafford (I do slightly worry about the Oakland pass rush having an advantage here, but the only times Oakland has slowed any quarterback down were Peyton Manning and Minnesota last week who threw just 22 times), Derek Carr (Detroit hasn’t prevented any quarterback points in any week), Calvin Johnson (Oakland has allowed a couple of ceiling games and a lot of good ones to lead receivers), Latavius Murray (has cooled down a touch recently, but this one has high scoring game written all over it)

 

Bust: Detroit Running Game (despite the Raiders' recent struggles versus the run, here we are again, pretty much written in pen at this point)

 

Reasonable Return: Eric Ebron (insert usable tight end facing Oakland), Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper (I feel good about using either, but I prefer Carr as a hedge on both since they have just two weeks as top-24 performers together), Clive Walford (this is a deeper all or nothing dig if you were relying on Ben Watson or Gary Barnidge because the floor is low, but Walford has scored in three of his past four and Detroit has allowed seven red zone touchdowns to tight ends), Golden Tate (by default of this game projecting to be high scoring he has to be on the radar somewhere, but hasn’t been a top-24 scoring receiver in any week this season), Theo Riddick (has come back down overall, but still has been no worse than RB37 in any game since Week 2 if you’re in need of a floor flex play)

 

New York (AFC) vs. Houston


Jets @ Texans
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
66.7 Plays/Gm 72.7
63.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8
44.2% Rush % 36.5%
55.8% Pass % 63.5%
35.9% Opp. Rush % 43.0%
64.1% Opp. Pass % 57.0%

 

  • Both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have scored double digit points in every game played this season.
  • After finishing as a top-12 scoring receiver in four of his first five games, Marshall has been a top-24 receiver in just one of his past four.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven games this season, tied for second most in the league.
  • Allen Robinson's WR18 finish is the highest WR1 weekly rank against the Jets this season.
  • The Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 57.0 percent of their passes, lowest in the league.
  • Just 26.3 percent of the Houston rushing attempts have gone for five or more yards, league average is 33 percent.
  • The Texans haven’t allowed a touchdown on their opponent's past 31possessions.

 

Trust: Chris Ivory (in line for third down work again with Zac Stacy out and although Houston has improved on the ground over the past two weeks, belief is some of that is opponent driven)

 

Bust: Any Houston running back (an easy call, but there’s need to dig deep here), QB Texans (whether it’s Brian Hoyer or T.J. Yates, stay clear), DeAndre Hopkins (you aren’t running away here when setting seasonal lineups because of forced volume and Revis has looked mortal the past two weeks, but Hopkins has a similar matchup to last week in which he saved a low floor with a great touchdown grab)

 

Reasonable Return: Eric Decker (eventually he won’t score a touchdown, but you’ll still have 5-6 catches and 80 yards to fall back on), Brandon Marshall (has been hobbled over the past month, capping his ceiling), Ryan Fitzpatrick (coming off of surgery is worrisome, but has shown to have such a reliable floor)

 

Indianapolis vs. Atlanta

 

Colts @ Falcons
6 Spread -6
20.5 Team O/U 27
68.3 Plays/Gm 69.2
67.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.8
37.1% Rush % 39.9%
62.9% Pass % 60.1%
42.1% Opp. Rush % 38.8%
57.9% Opp. Pass % 61.2%

 

  • Through six games, the Falcons scored a touchdown on 30.7 percent of their drives (4th best). Over their past three games, they've scored just four touchdowns on 31 possessions (12.9 percent, 30th).
  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 250 or more yards in 16 consecutive games, the longest active streak and the third longest streak ever for any quarterback.
  • Devonta Freeman has 15 or more points in eight consecutive games, the longest streak for a non-quarterback in the league.
  • Julio Jones has eight games of 15 or more points, the most of any wide receiver.
  • Freeman and Jones have accounted for 60 percent of the Atlanta yardage and 62 percent of the touches over the past four games.
  • The Colts average just 5.2 yards per play, 30th in the league.
  • T.Y. Hilton was the WR30 and the WR27 in Matt Hasselbeck's two starts earlier in the season, accruing 27.7 percent and 31 percent of the team targets.
  • Frank Gore has double digit points in seven consecutive weeks, the longest streak for any back outside of Freeman's eight games, but has just one top-12 scoring week on the season.

 

Trust: Devonta Freeman

 

Bust: Donte Moncrief (had one decent week at WR31 earlier with Hasselbeck and one awful one at WR88, but has been fading even with Andrew Luck prior to the bye), Matt Hasselbeck (six quarterbacks to face Atlanta has been the QB18 or lower)

 

Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan (Indianapolis has allowed 15 or more points to eight of nine quarterbacks this season and the yardage is always a bed with Ryan), Julio Jones (even if Vontae Davis goes everywhere, that only jeopardizes his ceiling with the way he’s moved around), Jacob Tamme/Leonard Hankerson (if Hankerson is back, bump Tamme down a notch, but both should be useful floor plays with Jones drawing attention), Frank Gore (we know what we’re getting here), T.Y. Hilton (the Colts create more for him than the other pieces of their offenses, he’ll find his way to opportunity even if his ceiling is lowered)

 

Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia

 

Buccaneers @ Eagles
5.5 Spread -5.5
20 Team O/U 24.5
62.4 Plays/Gm 70.8
64.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.1
46.4% Rush % 40.9%
53.6% Pass % 59.1%
44.1% Opp. Rush % 39.9%
55.9% Opp. Pass % 60.1%

 

  • Over the past four weeks, Mike Evans has been targeted on 39.4 percent of his routes, most in the league.
  • Over that span, Evans ranks second overall in targets (53), fourth in receptions (27) and second in receiving yards (493).
  • Tampa Bay is allowing the third fewest rushing points per attempt (.443) and Philadelphia the fourth fewest at .477.
  • Ryan Mathews has more rushing points (72.7) than DeMarco Murray (69.1) despite having 53 fewer rushing attempts.
  • Murray has been a top-8 scorer in four of his past five games, topping 17 points four times.
  • Jordan Matthews averaged 15.1 points per game in the eight games started by Mark Sanchez last year.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 2.4 red zone touchdowns per game, 30th in the league.

 

Trust: Mike Evans (even with drops and lack of touchdowns has found his footing as a weekly option)

 

Bust: Ryan Mathews (Tampa Bay has taken away the run, leaving Mathews in need of a bunny score like last week), Jordan Matthews (not expecting 2014 results with Sanchez because this offense is so different and Tampa Bay has been beaten more by true outside presences and he has just one top-40 week over his past seven games), Doug Martin (Lamar Miller was the first back to have a higher week than RB18 against the Eagles and he needed 17 receiving points to make that happen), Jameis Winston (keeps putting up safe points, but also is doing it by relying on short rushing touchdowns)

 

Reasonable Return: DeMarco Murray (receiving game aids any matchup concerns), Mark Sanchez (the matchup is solid and we know the volume will be there), Zach Ertz (has seven or more targets in four of his past five, but is still waiting on that first touchdown)

 

Kansas City vs. San Diego


Chiefs @ Chargers
-3 Spread 3
23.5 Team O/U 20.5
63.2 Plays/Gm 69.8
64.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.7
41.7% Rush % 33.6%
58.3% Pass % 66.4%
37.2% Opp. Rush % 43.2%
62.8% Opp. Pass % 56.8%

 

  • Since taking over as the starter in Week 6, Charcandrick West averages 21.3 touches per game, the 9th highest in the league over that stretch.
  • Over the same span, West's .93 points per touch rank 6th best of all backs with 50 or more touches.
  • The Chiefs have trailed just 4.7 percent of their offensive snaps over their past three games after trailing for 51.1 percent through six games played.
  • San Diego has allowed a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games, longest ongoing streak.
  • Kansas City is one of two teams (Miami) to allow multiple sacks in every game this season.
  • Just 26.2 percent of Alex Smith's fantasy points have come from passing touchdowns, the second lowest percentage ahead of only Teddy Bridgewater (25.5 percent).
  • San Diego has rushed for 100 yards as a team just once this season, tied with Detroit and Houston for the fewest in the league.
  • Danny Woodhead leads the Chargers in red zone carries (15) and is tied for the team lead in targets (eight).
  • After allowing 31.3 points per game over their first four games, Kansas City has allowed just 14.0 points per game over their past five games.
  • In the first game post Keenan Allen, Steve Johnson had 23.8 percent of the team targets, a season high.

 

Trust: Charcandrick West, Danny Woodhead (has six games with 60 or more yards receiving and is tied for third in top-12 scoring weeks with five)

 

Bust: Melvin Gordon (you know the story here, this team is one dimensional), Jeremy Maclin (hasn’t had 20 percent of the team targets over his past three games and San Diego has limited lead receivers to date)

 

Reasonable Return: Philip Rivers (they are going to throw it around a lot, but his ceiling is compromised with all of the moving parts at wide receiver), Antonio Gates (went into the bye week nearly broken, but is still the best receiver of the group), Stevie Johnson (targets are there now, but showed he still doesn’t have an immense ceiling with them), Alex Smith (his averaged weekly rank is QB13 over his past six games with a low of 13.4 points), Travis Kelce (ran into his worst week of the season last week, but still had 29 percent of the team targets, his second week in a row with 28 percent or more)

 

Green Bay vs. Minnesota


Packers @ Vikings
1 Spread -1
21.5 Team O/U 23
62.3 Plays/Gm 62.1
66.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.3
40.3% Rush % 49.0%
59.7% Pass % 51.0%
41.7% Opp. Rush % 39.6%
58.3% Opp. Pass % 60.4%

 

  • This is the first time the Vikings have been favored over the Packers since Week 4, 2009.
  • In the first three quarters over the past two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has 355 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. In the fourth quarter of those games, he has 359 passing yards and four touchdown passes.
  • Last week, Davante Adams was the first receiver to have fewer than 100 receiving yards (79) with 20 or more targets (21) since Chris Penn in 1997.
  • James Jones has just five receptions for 89 yards on 15 targets over the past four games.
  • After scoring on 46.7 percent of their possessions through six games (3rd), the Packers have scored on just 23.6 percent (29th) over the past three weeks.
  • Teddy Bridgewater has completed just 36.4 percent (12 of 33) of his passes in the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Bridgewater has just two passing touchdowns at home this season, fewest of all quarterbacks to start every game this season.
  • Adrian Peterson is second in the league in runs of 5 or more yards (66), first in runs of 10 or more yards (28) and tied for second with seven runs of 20 or more yards.
  • Peterson's 961 rushing yards are his highest total through nine games since 2008 (1,015).
  • Peterson has scored a touchdown in six consecutive games facing Green Bay.
  • After being targeted a season-high 40 percent of the time in Week 8, Stefon Diggs has seen just 18.5 percent and 9.1 percent of the targets over the past two weeks.

 

Trust: Adrian Peterson (he’s returned to cyborg form post Week 6 hiccup)

 

Bust: Teddy Bridgewater (there’s just little volume here to attach yourself to), Randall Cobb (has reached 60 receiving yards just three times, one fewer than Jacob Tamme), James Jones, Richard Rodgers (living off of touchdown production, has had more than five receptions just once and has yet to have 50 receiving yards in any game so far), Eddie Lacy (even if he does play, he's not startable and Starks is still the best option for this offense)

 

Reasonable Return: Stefon Diggs (have seen what a floor looks like for a receiver in a small market passing game the past two weeks, but remains their best playmaker through the air), Aaron Rodgers (he’s been bad in a real football sense over the past two weeks, but still has found a way to be the QB3 and the QB4 for fantasy those weeks in desperate game script), Davante Adams (has been inefficient, but is still vacuuming targets and been a top-20 player the past two weeks), James Starks (even in a tough rushing play, his receiving ability is a usable safety net, regardless of whether Eddie Lacy plays or not)

 

San Francisco vs. Seattle

 

49ers @ Seahawks
12.5 Spread -12.5
14 Team O/U 27
60.1 Plays/Gm 62.4
65.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.7
45.1% Rush % 46.8%
54.9% Pass % 53.2%
42.6% Opp. Rush % 43.6%
57.4% Opp. Pass % 56.4%

 

  • The 49ers scored on 27 percent of their drives under Colin Kaepernick. In Blaine Gabbert's Week 9 start, they barely improved, scoring on three of 10 possessions.
  • Torrey Smith has been targeted on just 11.2 percent of his routes this season, which ranks 70th out of the 75 receivers with at least 200 routes run on the season.
  • The 49ers have scored 13 points total over their past three games against the Seahawks.
  • Through nine games in 2014, Russell Wilson had six top-10 scoring weeks. This season he has just one.
  • Including the postseason, Marshawn Lynch has rushed for at least 90 yards in eight of his past nine games against the 49ers.
  • San Francisco has allowed seven top-12 scoring running backs this season, tied with San Diego for the most in the league.
  • Jimmy Graham has finished inside of the top-10 scorers just three times so far this season and has been the TE20 or lower five times.

 

Trust: Marshawn Lynch (he has hit 75 yards on the ground fewer times than Thomas Rawls, but the game script should be right for Beast Mode this weekend)

 

Bust: All 49ers offensive options (the team total is low and maybe still too high)

 

Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (he’s been a floor player this year and the game script may prevent a big ceiling again this week), Jimmy Graham (there’s no evidence-based logic to keep rolling him out other than he’s kind of been an every other week option so far)

 

Cincinnati vs. Arizona


Bengals @ Cardinals
4 Spread -4
21.5 Team O/U 27
63.8 Plays/Gm 64.6
62.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.8
45.9% Rush % 43.4%
54.1% Pass % 56.6%
34.9% Opp. Rush % 37.8%
65.1% Opp. Pass % 62.2%

 

  • 13.6 percent of Carson Palmer's pass attempts result in a 20 yard or more completion, the highest rate in the league.
  • Palmer is the only quarterback other than Tom Brady to score at least 15 points in every game this season.
  • Andre Ellington's snap rate over the past three weeks has been 29.0 percent, 32.1 percent and 39.3 percent.
  • Arizona leads the league in points per play (.520).
  • Since Week 6, Michael Floyd's 11.7 yards per target are the 5th highest in the league of all players with at least 20 targets over that stretch.
  • Quarterbacks are only completing 58.5 percent of their passes against Arizona, the 5th fewest in the league.
  • A.J. Green has just three top-24 scoring weeks on the season.
  • Green has been targeted on 23.5 percent of his routes so far, his lowest total since his rookie season.
  • Jeremy Hill has 4.0 yards per carry or less in eight games this year, tied with Isaiah Crowell for the most of all running backs.
  • Hill had just 33.3 percent of the Cincinnati carries last week, his lowest total since Week 5.

 

Trust: Carson Palmer (outside of Tom Brady, there’s not another quarterback you’d rather have in fantasy), Larry Fitzgerald (this is equally as bad of a matchup for both receiving units, but Fitzgerald has been bankable and the receivers that have done any real damage to the Bengals have been versatile options)

 

Bust: A.J. Green (has been targeted inconsistently and now will be chased all over the field by Patrick Peterson), Jeremy Hill (at least Eddie Lacy has some built in health excuses if we choose to use them), Tyler Eifert (the only tight end to finish inside of the top-12 against Arizona was Gary Barnidge), Andy Dalton (we have finally seen a bottomless performance from him last week and it’s hard to find matchups you like on paper for the Bengals main pieces), Michael Floyd/John Brown (the Bengals defend the boundaries as good as anyone)

 

Reasonable Return: Giovani Bernard (the best of the backfield and will be necessary against this defense), Marvin Jones (secondary receivers have found the only success against the Cardinals), Andre Ellington (still hasn’t found a truly consistent role, but it’s clear he still has playmaking ability and I’m expecting the outside to be defended well), Chris Johnson (still dominating the carries and there’s been a lot of them)

 

Buffalo vs. New England


Bills @ Patriots
7 Spread -7
20.5 Team O/U 27.5
61.9 Plays/Gm 67.2
65.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.0
48.3% Rush % 35.4%
51.7% Pass % 64.6%
36.7% Opp. Rush % 33.9%
63.3% Opp. Pass % 66.1%

 

  • Since Week 3, LeGarrette Blount leads the league in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line with 11 (he's converted five).
  • Rob Gronkowski has 10 career touchdowns in eight games played against the Bills and averaged 5.5 receptions for 82 yards facing them.
  • After pass protecting 20 percent more of the time on his passing snaps the previous three weeks, Gronkowski stayed in to block on just six of his 43 passing snaps last week.
  • After Julian Edelman left last week, Danny Amendola had 25.9 percent of the team targets.
  • When Edelman missed Week 16 last year, Amendola caught eight of 11 targets for 63 yards and was the WR28 (Edelman also missed Week 17, but multiple Patriots rested).
  • The Bills are one of two teams (Atlanta) to have two or fewer sacks in every game this season.
  • Buffalo has allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven games this season, tied for the second most in the league.
  • LeSean McCoy is the first Buffalo running back to have three straight games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage since C.J. Spiller in 2012.
  • Buffalo is second in the league in rushing yards per game at 142.3. The Patriots are allowing just 55.3 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks.
  • Tony Romo still has more red zone pass attempts (17) than Tyrod Taylor (13) for the season.
  • Taylor leads the league with139 rushing yards on third down this season.

 

Trust: Tom Brady (lost a significant drive-sustaining weapon for the second week in a row, but until he shows he’s affected from a fantasy standpoint it’s business as usual), Rob Gronkowski (wasn’t asked to help block last week and is the best Patriot pass catcher left)

 

Bust: Karlos Williams (for someone scoring a touchdown per week it’s dangerously ironic that he has just one carry inside the 5-yard line this season), Brandon LaFell (he had two solid lines against the Bills last year, but Buffalo is defending outside at a higher level this season), Charles Clay (New England has smothered tight ends, not allowing any top-10 one this season)

 

Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (the first time these two teams played he saved his day late, but the Patriots have allowed usable quarterback production), LeSean McCoy (he’s looked great the past two weeks and we know the touches will be here), Sammy Watkins (the Patriots haven’t been giving to lead receivers, but Watkins looks as if he’s ready to turn a corner in production), Danny Amendola (we know he’s not Julian Edelman, but he’s just fine as a weekly floor option), LeGarrette Blount (this is not a battering ram type of game, but he’s a weekly RB2 play for his touchdown upside alone)

 

Context Key:

 

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

 

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.