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The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 12

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Happy Thanksgiving! We’ve made it through all of the bye weeks and have our first of six full slate weekends to close the season. Here's the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the remaining Week 12 games in a PPR fashion....

 

 

Buffalo vs. Kansas City


Bills @ Chiefs
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
62.5 Plays/Gm 62.8
64.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8
47.8% Rush % 42.7%
52.2% Pass % 57.3%
36.6% Opp. Rush % 37.8%
63.4% Opp. Pass % 62.2%

 

  • 78.7 percent of Alex Smith's completions have been on passes under 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
  • 37 percent of the Chiefs' team touchdowns this season have been passing, lowest percentage in the league.
  • Kansas City averages 3.9 red zone trips per game, the 5th highest in the league.
  • Since Week 5, the Chiefs have allowed just seven touchdowns on their opponents past 66 possessions (10.6 percent), the lowest percentage in the league.
  • The Bills average just 28.8 yards per drive, 28th in the league.
  • Buffalo has run just 58 plays in the red zone, ahead of only St. Louis (50).
  • Prior to injury, Tyrod Taylor's average scoring week through five games was the QB10 as he averaged 20.8 points per game. Since returning, he’s been the QB17, QB22 and QB27 scoring 36.6 points total.
  • Since having both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams back over the past three weeks, McCoy has handled 71.4 percent of the carries between the two.
  • Over that span, McCoy has been the RB10, RB6 and RB2 and has the second most total yards (401) of all running backs.
  • Sammy Watkins’ target shares weekly: 26.7 percent, 6.9, 11.9, 66.7, 25.9 and 16.7 percent.

 

Trust: LeSean McCoy (looks like a new player the past three weeks and has added a receiving floor to his usage)

 

Bust: Sammy Watkins (not only is his usage all over the place, but Kansas City has not allowed a top-20 receiver since Week 7), Jeremy Maclin (hasn’t had more than six targets or been a top-30 receiver since Week 5), Alex Smith (the past four quarterbacks to face Buffalo have all been QB17 or lower), Tyrod Taylor (he and the Chiefs defense are trending in opposite directions)

 

Reasonable Return: Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware (whoever has filled this role has been fantasy-relevant dating back to the Philadelphia days), Travis Kelce (his slice of the pie has been steady for the past three weeks, but the overall targets are still shallow)

 

Editor's Note: For updated rankings, fantasy news columns, IDP, injury analysis, dynasty and much more, check out the Rotoworld Season Pass.


 

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati


Rams @ Bengals
9 Spread -9
17 Team O/U 24.5
57.1 Plays/Gm 64.5
66.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.0
47.6% Rush % 45.1%
52.4% Pass % 54.9%
42.9% Opp. Rush % 35.7%
57.1% Opp. Pass % 64.3%

 

  • After averaging over 5.0 yards per carry in the four games Weeks 4-8, Todd Gurley hasn't hit 4.0 yards per carry in any of his past three games, rushing 61 times for 200 yards (3.28 YPC) over the stretch.
  • Gurley is the first Rams running back to rush for a touchdown in five straight games since Marshall Faulk in 2002.
  • Tavon Austin's 5.6 yards per target is the lowest of any receiver in the top-40 of scoring.
  • The Rams rank last in the NFL in offensive plays per game and have run 156 fewer offensive plays than the team that has run the most (Houston).
  • St. Louis has three passing touchdowns since Week 5, the fewest in the league.
  • Tyler Eifert leads the league in touchdown receptions inside of the 10-yard line with eight.
  • The Rams have allowed five top-10 scoring tight ends (5th most) and three 100-yard receiving tight ends (tied for the most) on the season.
  • Jeremy Hill leads the league with three games with multiple rushing touchdowns, but has scored a rushing touchdown in just three games.
  • Hill's season high for yardage rushing is 63 yards (Week 1) and 42.7 percent of his points have come from rushing touchdowns, the highest dependency in the league.
  • Gio Bernard has eight top-24 scoring weeks to Hill's three.

 

Trust: Tyler Eifert (the yardage hasn’t been massive which has led to some floor moments, but St. Louis has been struggling to defend the middle of the field)

 

Bust: Jeremy Hill (either you’re guessing which week he’ll score or you just have no other options and ride him weekly)

 

Reasonable Return: Todd Gurley (he’s doing what workhorses do, grind through tough matchups with solid floor weeks and this sets up to be another one), Andy Dalton (only Jay Cutler finished above QB15 against the Rams this season but we’re aware of the uncommon opponent angle with Dalton and he always has touchdown upside), Giovani Bernard (the floor has been rock solid, but has just two touchdowns on the season), A.J. Green (really a high WR3 with upside play weekly at this point), Marvin Jones (has finished outside of a usable flex week just once over the past six games)

 

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New Orleans vs. Houston


Saints @ Texans
3 Spread -3
21.5 Team O/U 24.5
69.6 Plays/Gm 72.7
63.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.7
37.8% Rush % 37.9%
62.2% Pass % 62.1%
41.8% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
58.2% Opp. Pass % 58.1%

 

  • Drew Brees has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 288.5 yards per game with six touchdowns and five interceptions on the road this year compared to a 74.4 percent completion rate, 363.6 passing yards per game with 14 touchdowns to four interceptions at home.
  • After having just one week above WR28 through the first six games, Brandin Cooks has been the WR25 or better over his past four games played.
  • Mark Ingram has been a top-20 scoring running back in every week except for one this season.
  • The Saints have scored a touchdown on 26.9 percent of their drives, fourth highest in the league.
  • The Texans average just 4.9 yards per play, 31st in the league. The Saints allow 6.7 yards per play, the most in the league.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has 90 more snaps played on the season than the next highest receiver (Brandon Marshall).
  • The Saints have allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight games, the most in the league.
  • New Orleans allows .653 passing points per attempt, most in the league. Houston averages 43.0 pass attempts per game, most in the league.

 

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (the Saints actually have allowed only two top-12 receivers, but that’s largely due to getting roasted by tight ends and Houston doesn’t have one. Hopkins could be in line for another massive week like T.Y. Hilton and Odell Beckham had against the Saints), Brian Hoyer (keep targeting this matchup until they give you a reason to stop)

 

Bust: Drew Brees (I’m not terrified if I have him, but road bugaboos and the Houston defense resurgence have my expectations low), Willie Snead (has been volatile over his past five games and this passing game rarely travels)

 

Reasonable Return: Alfred Blue (he keeps racking up hollow touches and Houston still can’t run while Jonathan Grimes has been effective, but if we’re on the Houston passing game, that means there should be scoring opportunities for him as well), Mark Ingram (has been as good of floor back as they come all season long and due for some touchdown regression within this offense), Brandin Cooks (has been steady, but also has been anchored by finding the end zone often), Ben Watson (his targets have been everywhere, but Houston has been a solid play for the good tight ends they have faced all season long sans Tyler Eifert)

 

San Diego vs. Jacksonville


Chargers @ Jaguars
4 Spread -4
21 Team O/U 24.5
68.6 Plays/Gm 65.5
58.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.9
34.4% Rush % 36.0%
65.6% Pass % 64.0%
44.1% Opp. Rush % 41.4%
55.9% Opp. Pass % 58.6%

 

  • Tavon Austin has 14 runs of 10 or more yards this season on 29 carries. The Chargers have 15 runs of 10 or more yards as a team on 235 attempts.
  • Melvin Gordon has the most touches in the league (151) without a touchdown on the season.
  • Over the past five weeks, just nine of Gordon's 51 carries (17.6 percent) have gone for at least five yards. League average for the season is 33 percent.
  • San Diego has run just seven rushing plays inside the 10-yard line (32nd) and just four inside of the 5-yard line this season (tied with Miami for last).
  • Danny Woodhead played 55 percent of the snaps last week (his third highest mark on the season), but had a touch on just 17.5 percent of his plays, his second lowest total of the season.
  • Jacksonville is just the 12th team since the 1970 merger to have one or fewer rushing touchdowns through 10 games played.
  • San Diego allows .749 rushing points per attempt, the most in the league.
  • Allen Robinson has 15 or more points in six consecutive games, tied with Julio Jones for the longest streak of any non-quarterback.

 

Trust: Allen Robinson, T.J. Yeldon (if his RB2 volume will ever meet a matchup in creating an RB1 ceiling, this is the week)

 

Bust: Julius Thomas (had 25.8 percent of the targets last week, but also was held under 30 yards for the fourth straight week), Melvin Gordon

 

Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (his recent fantasy lines have caught up to his lack of efficiency, but getting a San Diego defense circling the drain coming across country still makes him in play as a high-end QB2), Allen Hurns (finally was held out of the end zone last week, but could see plenty of Brandon Flowers in this one), Philip Rivers (he’s been the QB19 and QB27 since the loss of Keenan Allen, but Jacksonville has provided a comfy bed of points to quarterbacks leaving him in play for one last week until Week 16), Stevie Johnson (has had nearly two identical games post Allen injury), Danny Woodhead (the last time he had little usage on his regular allotment of snaps, he bounced back with 138 total yards), Antonio Gates (still limited from his knee injury, but the matchup is not nearly as bad as last week)

 

Tampa Bay vs. Indianapolis


Buccaneers @ Colts
3 Spread -3
21.5 Team O/U 24.5
63.4 Plays/Gm 67.6
64.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
44.2% Rush % 36.5%
47.8% Pass % 37.7%
43.6% Opp. Rush % 41.2%
56.4% Opp. Pass % 58.8%

 

  • The 45 points scored last week by Tampa Bay were the most they've scored in a game since Week 15, 2001.
  • Doug Martin has 24 runs of 10 or more yards, trailing only Adrian Peterson (31).
  • Martin averages a touch on 54.3 percent of his snaps, the third highest rate of all backs that average 30 or more snaps per game.
  • Jameis Winston has completed 53 percent of his passes (35/66) on throws 15 or more yards downfield, which leads the league.
  • The Colts have trailed by double digits for 36.9 percent of their offensive plays, the third highest in the league.
  • The Colts average just 19.6 points per game at home this season, 29th in the league.
  • T.Y. Hilton has just 12.5 percent of the team targets last week, his lowest total on the season.
  • Hilton's scoring weeks with Hasselbeck as the starting quarterback have been WR30, WR27 and WR68.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw has eight touchdown receptions inside of the 10-yard line since the start of last season, tied for the fourth most in the league.

 

Trust: Doug Martin (the Colts run defense has come and gone, but they have given up their three largest rushing games at home this season)

 

Bust: Vincent Jackson (he found the end zone in his return, but also has crossed 60 receiving yards just once on the season), Frank Gore (Tampa bay has allowed just two top-12 running backs and just one running back to rush for 70 yards since Week 3), Donte Moncrief (hasn’t hit 70 receiving yards since Week 4), Coby Fleener (had one strong week with Hasselbeck, but has been the TE32 and TE18 the other two weeks), Ahmad Bradshaw (he hurts Gore more than helps himself as you’re still banking on a touchdown to float him)

 

Reasonable Return: Mike Evans (a lot has been made about his target share with Jackson active, but he has at least 24 percent of the team targets in every game with them both healthy except for one and it was against Carolina), Jameis Winston (he’s yet to have fewer than 12 points and Indianapolis has allowed 15 or more points to every quarterback except for one), Matt Hasselbeck (a safe floor mid-QB2, has had 13-16 points in all three starts), T.Y. Hilton (the targets should bounce back in a softer individual matchup, but he’s still a lower WR2 play at this point), Charles Sims (has been a flex option in seven of their 10 games this season)

 

Miami vs. New York (AFC)


Dolphins @ Jets
3.5 Spread -3.5
20 Team O/U 23
59.9 Plays/Gm 66.3
68.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.0
34.7% Rush % 43.1%
65.3% Pass % 56.9%
47.5% Opp. Rush % 37.7%
52.5% Opp. Pass % 62.3%

 

  • The Dolphins allow 138.6 rushing yards per game, second most in the league.
  • Miami has allowed six individual 100-yard rushing performances, the most in the league.
  • Chris Ivory played just 17 snaps last week, his lowest total of the season.
  • The Jets have scored a touchdown on 71.9 percent of their red zone possessions, the highest rate in the league.
  • Brandon Marshall's 5.5 yards per target is the lowest of all receivers with 30 or more targets over the past five weeks.
  • Lamar Miller ranks 20th in rushing attempts (44) and 27th in rushing yards (146) over the past four weeks.
  • 59.4 percent of the running back scoring against the Jets has been through receiving, the highest percentage in the league.
  • Rishard Matthews has just 13.6 percent of the Miami targets over the past three weeks after having 17.9 percent over the first seven games.
  • The first time these teams met, Matthews had just 6.8 percent of the team targets, his lowest total on the season.
  • In that game, Jarvis Landry had his lowest point total (10.9 points) and lowest weekly finish (WR45) on the season.
  • Miami has run fewer plays this season than only San Francisco and St. Louis.

 

Trust: Chris Ivory (he has had some inefficiency and will lose some drives to Bilal Powell, but this is still a prime matchup for him at home to bounce back)

 

Bust: Rishard Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Ryan Tannehill (has been a floor option only in back to back solid matchups and although the Jets defense has gotten leaky, expectations are low on the road as the run game should struggle)

 

Reasonable Return: Brandon Marshall (hasn’t looked right for a few weeks, but is still finding the end zone to mask potential low floor moments), Eric Decker (has seen the majority of the targets over the past five weeks, but is still living in the 60-80 yard area weekly), Ryan Fitzpatrick (has at least 14.7 points in his past five complete games), Lamar Miller (he’ll need to find that passing game floor again this week and should do it with how the Jets have covered backs recently)

 

Minnesota vs. Atlanta


Vikings @ Falcons
2 Spread -2
21.5 Team O/U 24
62.1 Plays/Gm 69.4
63.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.6
47.0% Rush % 39.3%
53.0% Pass % 60.7%
40.6% Opp. Rush % 39.3%
59.4% Opp. Pass % 60.7%

 

  • The Falcons haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 4 of last season, the longest streak in the league.
  • 57 percent of the Vikings offensive yardage is from passing, lowest rate in the league.
  • Teddy Bridgewater averages just 10.4 passing points per game, the lowest of any quarterback to start every game this season.
  • After having four consecutive weeks with scoring weeks of WR25 or better, Stefon Diggs has been the WR52, WR43 and WR28 over the past three weeks.
  • Diggs has just three of the 26 Minnesota red zone targets since being active.
  • Kyle Rudolph has 31.3 percent (10 of 32) of the Vikings red zone targets on the season.
  • After leading the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns through six weeks, Atlanta hasn't rushed for a touchdown since
  • Julio Jones has been targeted on 21.4 percent of his offensive snaps, the most of any receiver.
  • Jones leads the NFL in targets inside of the 10-yard line with 12.

 

Trust: Julio Jones (on pace to flirt with league records at this point)

 

Bust: Tevin Coleman (bump him up a notch if Freeman is out, but looked timid as a runner last week and Minnesota’s run defense is much better than they showed last week), Jacob Tamme (his targets dropped with Hankerson back), Leonard Hankerson (came back to seven looks and also some big drops, but Atlanta forced targets to Roddy White which caps his upside), Stefon Diggs (living the life of a player with low touchdown upside in a low volume offense), Teddy Bridgewater

 

Reasonable Return: Adrian Peterson (he’s had as many floor weeks as ceiling ones, but that floor is still always there with the volume he receives), Devonta Freeman (expecting a receiving over rushing game if he’s active), Matt Ryan (he is what he is, a low end QB1 with not much of a ceiling above that)

 

New York (NFC) vs. Washington


Giants @ Washington
-2 Spread 2
24.5 Team O/U 23
65.1 Plays/Gm 62.5
68.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.5
38.7% Rush % 39.0%
61.3% Pass % 61.0%
38.7% Opp. Rush % 45.4%
61.3% Opp. Pass % 54.6%

 

  • Eli Manning has averaged 24.6 fantasy points over his past three games against Washington, throwing nine touchdowns to one interception.
  • The Giants average .419 points per play, the fourth highest in the league.
  • New York faces 41.0 pass attempts per game, the second most in the league.
  • Washington has rushed for more than 51 yards as a team in just one of their past six games.
  • DeSean Jackson's target share has gone from 15.0 percent to 20.0 percent to 26.7 percent weekly since his return.
  • The Giants have allowed seven top-10 scoring tight ends on the season, second most in the league (New Orleans, eight) and allow 81.5 receiving yards to tight ends, the highest in the league.
  • After averaging 70 receiving yards per game over his first five games, Jordan Reed has 93 receiving yards total over the past three weeks.

 

Trust: Eli Manning, Odell Beckham (coming out of the bye with three straight 100-yard games), Jordan Reed (his ceiling appears compromised with Jackson back, but this week will put that to the test in a prime matchup and he’s still the go to guy in the red zone)

 

Bust: Matt Jones/Alfred Morris (this is a passing game for Washington, like most of them), Shane Vereen (at this point we’re just blind on his weekly usage, but he failed to have a catch in the first meeting)

 

Reasonable Return: DeSean Jackson (usage has been trending up and the Washington offense has been better at home lately), Kirk Cousins (has been really good at home in his past two matchups which have been light), Rueben Randle (his best game came in this matchup in Week 3 and there’s underlying shootout potential here), Jamison Crowder (his volume is everywhere weekly, but has a nice matchup on the interior if Reed leaves some work for him there)

 

Oakland vs. Tennessee


Raiders @ Titans
-1.5 Spread 1.5
23 Team O/U 21
61.4 Plays/Gm 61.2
69.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.2
37.1% Rush % 40.2%
62.9% Pass % 59.8%
36.5% Opp. Rush % 46.0%
63.5% Opp. Pass % 54.0%

 

  • Oakland has allowed 121 plays in the red zone this season, most in the NFL.
  • Oakland allows 4.6 yards per carry on interior runs (guard to guard), the second highest in the league.
  • Marcus Mariota has completed just 32 percent of his passes (16/50) 15 or more yards downfield, the lowest of all quarterbacks.
  • Mariota has just three passing touchdowns to six interceptions at home on the season with weekly finishes of QB13, QB21, QB29 and QB25.
  • Delanie Walker has double digit points in seven games this season, tied for the second most of all tight ends behind Rob Gronkowski's eight.
  • Teams run 46 percent of the time against the Titans, the fourth highest rate in the league.
  • Tennessee allows just 19.0 completions per game, the fewest in the league.
  • The Titans have allowed just 54.2 receiving points to running backs on the season, the fewest in the league.
  • Over their past six games, Michael Crabtree has outscored Amari Cooper 101.2 to 79.1.

 

Trust: Delanie Walker (high usage tight end against Oakland)

 

Bust: Derek Carr (was due for some regression based on living off of longer touchdowns and Tennessee has allowed just three top-12 quarterbacks and two of those did most of their damage on the ground), Dorial Green-Beckham (played 84 percent of the snaps last week, but has yet to show the necessary separation skills to be a trustworthy option)

 

Reasonable Return: Marcus Mariota (the weapons are still lacking and he hasn’t been that good at home, but Oakland has allowed a top-12 week to every quarterback outside of Peyton Manning and Teddy Bridgewater), Antonio Andrews (the ceiling and floor are low, but I like the game script potential here and with Dexter McCluster hurt, there’s reception opportunities), Latavius Murray (Oakland hasn’t run well the past two weeks, but Tennessee can struggle with power running), Michael Crabtree (at this stage, he’s more dependable than Cooper is), Amari Cooper (it’s still hard to fade him entirely, but he’s far from unbenchable if you have options)

 

Arizona vs. San Francisco


Cardinals @ 49ers
-10 Spread 10
27 Team O/U 17
63.9 Plays/Gm 59.3
61.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.4
43.8% Rush % 43.8%
56.2% Pass % 56.2%
38.0% Opp. Rush % 44.4%
62.0% Opp. Pass % 55.6%

 

  • Shaun Draughn played 90.6 percent of the team snaps and had 100 percent of the backfield touches for the 49ers last week.
  • San Francisco has scored just six offensive touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league. Arizona has scored 21 touchdowns on the road, the most in the league.
  • The 49ers have been outscored 123-29 by NFC West opponents in four games this season.
  • Carson Palmer leads the NFL with 15 touchdown passes on the road this season.
  • Palmer leads the league with at .627 passing points per attempt. For his career, he's averaged .400 passing points per throw with a season high of .506 back in 2005.
  • Despite having the 9th most touches (118) since Week 5, Chris Johnson has been a top-30 scoring running back just once over his past six games played.
  • Larry Fitzgerald leads all receivers in top-24 scoring weeks with nine.
  • San Francisco has allowed seven top-12 scoring receivers, tied for the second most in the league.

 

Trust: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Chris Johnson (torched this matchup earlier and touches and game script are what you’re playing for here)

 

Bust: All 49ers outside of Shaun Draughn (there’s no juice here to squeeze), John Brown (found the end zone last week, but that covered up him having fewer than 10 percent of the targets for the second week in a row)

 

Reasonable Return: Shaun Draughn (on the field all of the time and getting cheap receptions for a floor), Michael Floyd/J.J. Nelson (this is the role in the offense that has been doing the damage after Fitzgerald, so monitor Floyd’s availability)

 

Pittsburgh vs. Seattle


Steelers @ Seahawks
4.5 Spread -4.5
20 Team O/U 24.5
60.9 Plays/Gm 63.7
66.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.7
42.4% Rush % 48.2%
57.6% Pass % 51.8%
36.5% Opp. Rush % 42.5%
63.5% Opp. Pass % 57.5%

 

  • Thomas Rawls had seven runs of 10 or more yards last week, the most for any player in a game this season.
  • Rawls now has rushing performances of 169 yards and 209 yards on the season. Marshawn Lynch has reached 150 rushing yards just twice over 137 career games (including postseason) with a career high of 157 yards.
  • Seattle is the only team other than Carolina to rush for 100 or more yards as a team in every game in this season.
  • Pittsburgh allows just .434 rushing points per attempt, the second fewest in the league.
  • The Steelers have allowed just four top-24 scoring running backs and just one top-12 one, both the fewest in the league.
  • Opponents target their tight end 9.3 times per game against Pittsburgh, the third highest rate in the league.
  • 31.2 percent of Martavis Bryant's points have come from receiving touchdowns, the second highest rate of all receivers (James Jones 31.5 percent)
  • The Seahawks are 0-3 against teams that rank inside the top-15 in total yardage per game (Pittsburgh ranks 6th) and have allowed 417.7 yards per game in those games as opposed to 254.7 yards per game in their other seven games.

 

Trust: Antonio Brown (he’s the type of receiver that keeps Seattle’s hands full)

 

Bust: Martavis Bryant he likely sees Richard Sherman the most often and Sherman’s length is problematic if Bryant doesn’t hit a long ball), DeAngelo Williams (cooled off heavily in his last game headed into the bye in a great matchup and I’m not sure he’ll catch enough passes to keep his floor intact)

 

Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh is another soft matchup to allow Wilson to build off of his best fantasy game of the season), Doug Baldwin (has three straight game with at least 20 percent of the team targets), Jimmy Graham (hasn’t given us anything to warrant him being useful, but the Steelers have been giving to tight ends), Thomas Rawls (the matchup isn’t great or even good, but few teams are committed to running like Seattle is), Ben Roethlisberger (all of the solid pass first quarterbacks have been good against Seattle so far this season), Heath Miller (Seattle has been beaten by tight ends regularly and someone will have to pick up if Bryant has issues, but there’s still a low floor here)

 

New England vs. Denver


Patriots @ Broncos
-3 Spread 3
23.5 Team O/U 20.5
66.7 Plays/Gm 63.7
65.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.3
35.4% Rush % 37.8%
64.6% Pass % 62.2%
34.9% Opp. Rush % 41.5%
65.1% Opp. Pass % 58.5%

 

  • Post Julian Edelman, the Patriots have scored a touchdown on four of their 21 possessions (19 percent). Prior, they had scored a touchdown on 36.4 percent (32 of 88) drives.
  • Denver has allowed a passing touchdown once every 42.8 passing attempts, the best in the league. Tom Brady has thrown a touchdown once every 16.4 pass attempts, the 5th best rate in the league.
  • Rob Gronkowski has 12 receptions of 25 yards or longer, tied with Antonio Brown for the league lead.
  • The Broncos have allowed just one top-10 scoring tight end on the season.
  • Denver is allowing just 4.4 yards per play, the fewest in the league. New England averages 6.0 yards per play, the third most.
  • Brock Osweiler already has as many passing touchdowns in Denver this season (one) as Peyton Manning.
  • Osweiler had .667 passing points per attempt last week, higher than any game Manning had this season.
  • Vernon Davis played 68.1 percent of the snaps and had 22.2 percent of the team targets in Week 11, both highs with Denver.
  • Owen Daniels still played 81.2 percent of the snaps and had 18.5 percent of the targets.

 

Bust: Tom Brady (New England will have a game plan, but I can’t see where any of his receivers can win individual matchups outside of Gronk and this offensive line is going to have more than their hands full. I have a hard time seeing him hit the lofty per-game output he's set so far), LeGarrette Blount (you’re looking for a bunny score here), Owen Daniels/Vernon Davis (no tight end has reached 60 yards against New England since Week 1), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (they ran well last weekend, but we’ve seen the Denver run game be a mirage and New England has allowed 63.0 yards rushing over the past five weeks), Brock Osweiler (believe this game is really low scoring with just a few touchdowns and three of the past four quarterbacks to face the Patriots have been QB25 or lower)

 

Reasonable Return: Rob Gronkowski (still the best player in this offense and they’ll find ways to get him opportunities), Demaryius Thomas (the floor has been here, but still not seeing the red zone looks to carry a ceiling like we’ve seen in the past), Emmanuel Sanders (off of injury, he’s had a higher ceiling than Thomas this year, but also a lower floor), Danny Amendola (if active, he’s still garnering the most targets. If he sits, I don't like any of the other options in this matchup, including Brandon LaFell as Denver has allowed one touchdown to a wide receiver on the season and just two top-20 receivers), James White (he only played a handful of snaps in Week 11, but found the paint twice and will have to a piece of the pie this week in moving the ball)

 

Baltimore vs. Cleveland

 

Ravens @ Browns
2.5 Spread -2.5
20 Team O/U 21.5
67.8 Plays/Gm 64.4
64.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.8
36.6% Rush % 35.1%
63.4% Pass % 64.9%
40.7% Opp. Rush % 46.1%
59.3% Opp. Pass % 53.9%

 

  • After Justin Forsett was lost for the game in Week 11, Javorius Allen handled 22 of the 24 rushing attempts and had five of the eight backfield receptions.
  • Crockett Gillmore had 18.2 percent of the team targets last week, a season high.
  • The Browns (5.6 targets) and Ravens (6.2) are the two teams who see the lowest amount of tight end targets per game.
  • Gary Barnidge leads the league with four receiving touchdowns while trailing in the fourth quarter.
  • Barnidge’s weekly output with McCown under center has been TE2, TE4, TE3, TE5, TE5, and TE6.
  • Travis Benjamin has four top-20 scoring weeks. Only one has been with Josh McCown playing the majority of snaps.
  • The Browns allow 3.6 sacks per game, the most in the league.
  • Cleveland averages just 51.3 rushing yards per game over their past four games, fewest in the league.
  • Isaiah Crowell averages just 3.9 rushing points per game, the lowest of all running backs with at least 100 carries on the season.

 

Trust: Josh McCown (I wouldn’t expect 457 passing yards again like McCown had in Week 5, but he’s been the QB13 or better in four of his six complete games and thrown multiple touchdowns in five of those games), Javorius Allen (a worse interior runner than Justin Forsett, but a far better receiver and the Browns have been giving to backs all season), Gary Barnidge

 

Bust: Isaiah Crowell, Chris Givens (the target volume isn’t here for a receiver with little nuance to his game)

 

Reasonable Return: Kamar Aiken (has been the WR32, WR20 and WR13 in the games without Steve Smith, but the ceiling is lower with Matt Schaub in), Crockett Gillmore (has had strong back to back weeks and someone has to get targets outside of Aiken and Allen), Travis Benjamin (hit a midseason lull that was likely more matchup driven than anything else as McCown was still heavily targeting him), Matt Schaub (the weapons aren’t here for me to believe there’s a usable ceiling and there will be low points going forward, but this is a week where there can be a usable floor), Duke Johnson (his best weeks have also been with McCown, including 77 total yards against the Ravens in their first meeting)

 

Context Key:

 

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

 

 

 

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.