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The Worksheet

The Worksheet: Week 2

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Week 1 is in the books and I hope everyone started out on the victory end of their matchups. With the season only one week old, we’re still looking for more happen to grasp onto when it comes to finding exploitable trends for us to take advantage of. The fluidity of the NFL game as it rolls over into a new year can smash some evidence-based decision making. Some previous trends can already be left in the dust and that’s what happened Week 1 as guys like Travis Kelce shattered perceived tougher games based on opponent history.

 

As an early disclaimer, remember to apply the context key to the play sections as they aren’t intended to be a linear start or sit guide. Labeling a stud a bust doesn’t mean he’s a guy you should automatically look to replace, nor is a trust on a low level player mean you should move mountains to find room for him in your lineups. Combine the data with Evan Silva’s weekly matchup column, Pat Daugherty’s rankings and Nick Mensio’s start and sit guide to maximize your lineup’s full potential.

 

Denver vs. Kansas City

 

Broncos @ Chiefs
3 Spread -3
20 Team O/U 23
69.0 Plays/Gm 67.0
57.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 73.0
36.2% Rush % 47.8%
63.8% Pass % 52.2%
40.4% Opp. Rush % 28.8%
59.6% Opp. Pass % 71.2%

 

  • Since joining the Broncos, Peyton Manning-led teams are 6-0 facing Kansas City. In those games, Manning has averaged 289.3 passing yards and 8.6 yards per attempt with 16 touchdowns to three interceptions.
  • Demaryius Thomas has scored or gone over 100 receiving yards in all six of those games.
  • Grain of salt for the four injured weeks we know of, but Peyton's past 6 FF ranks have been QB20, QB31, QB15, QB20, QB24 and QB32. He was outscored by both Houston quarterbacks Week 1.
  • Manning completed just two of eight passes that were 10 plus yards downfield last week.
  • In their last meeting, Denver ran for a season-high 214 yards, also the most allowed by Kansas City on the season.
  • C.J. Anderson had a touch on just 28.1 percent of his snaps. He had a touch on 40.5 percent of his snaps in 2014.
  • Owen Daniels was targeted just twice on 32 routes (6.3 percent), the second lowest rate of all tight ends with 20-plus snaps in routes.
  • Denver has allowed just two quarterbacks inside of the top-12 in scoring over their past 13 games, with eight finishing in the bottom half of weekly scoring.
  • In Alex Smith's starts against Denver last year, he was the QB18 and QB19.
  • Jamaal Charles hasn’t reached 100 yards rushing in his past four games facing Denver and has more than two receptions in just one of those games.
  • Denver allowed just 8.3 percent of runs against them (29 of 348) to go for 10 or more yards in 2014, second lowest in the league. In Week 1, they
  • allowed just one of 23 attempts to go for 10 or more yards against the team that was third in the league in such runs a year ago.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Chris Harris has allowed just four touchdown receptions on 310 targets his way since 2011. The last touchdown he allowed in coverage was Week 12 of 2013.

 

TrustTravis Kelce (proved immediately he can’t be faded by any matchup concerns and the Chiefs receivers are no match for the Denver corners. The passing game runs through Kelce this week)

 

Bust: Peyton Manning (how can we really trust him and this offensive line on a short week on the road against a good pass rush?), Alex Smith (will need to use his legs in this one to stack counting points), Owen Daniels, C.J. Anderson (short week off of a rumored turf toe with offensive line concerns still lingering)

 

Reasonable Return: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders (Hopkins and Washington still found space last week), Ronnie Hillman (looked fresher and quicker than Anderson and I’m expecting Anderson to share time in a short week after being banged up), Jeremy Maclin (gets the lesser of two evils more often by finding Talib more than Harris), Jamaal Charles (his overall line should be very solid with pass game involvement, but he struggled to find room last week before the script tilted completely against a defense that isn’t as good as Denver’s).

 

Editor's Note: For updated rankings, fantasy news columns, IDP, injury analysis, dynasty and much more, check out the Rotoworld Season Pass.

 

New England vs. Buffalo

 

Patriots @ Bills
-1 Spread 1
23 Team O/U 21.5
58.0 Plays/Gm 55.0
66.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.0
41.4% Rush % 65.5%
58.6% Pass % 34.5%
37.9% Opp. Rush % 25.0%
62.1% Opp. Pass % 75.0%

 

  • In seven career games facing Buffalo, Rob Gronkowski averages 5.2 receptions for 77.6 yards with nine total touchdown receptions.
  • Tom Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns in his past five starts at Buffalo.
  • The Bills have allowed just two quarterbacks inside of the top-10 scorers since last year and just one top-5 one, which was Brady at Buffalo (30.7 points) last season.
  • Julian Edelman was targeted on a league high 41.4 percent of his routes (12 of 29) in Week 1, highest rate in the league of all receivers with double digit routes run.
  • LeGarrette Blount has scored double digit points against top-10 rushing defenses just once over his past 17 games with New England. He’s played 30 percent of the offensive snaps just one time in those weeks.
  • The Bills targeted wide receivers on just 10 passes Week 1, second fewest in the league after Tennessee (eight).
  • Sammy Watkins has three or fewer catches in eight of his past 10 games.
  • LeSean McCoy's .59 points per touch Week 1 matched the .59 points per touch he posted for the season a year ago.
  • McCoy had 10 of his 17 carries go for two yards or less.

 

TrustRob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman (it would make sense for Buffalo to use Gilmore exclusively on him, but as clockwork as Antonio Brown minus the splash plays and scores)

 

Bust: Sammy Watkins (Malcolm Butler was game versus Brown last week, but fighting up a few classes), Percy Harvin (are we expecting lightning to strike twice?), LeGarrette Blount (believe will see more of Lewis in this one, but the Pats could still set up a short score)

 

Reasonable Return: Tom Brady (he’s shredded Buffalo consistently on the road, but the Bills should generate pressure on the interior with Marcell Dareus returning. Seeing two scores as opposed to four for Brady, Tyrod Taylor (offense caps his ceiling, but rushing holds his floor), LeSean McCoy (love the matchup based on what DeAngelo Williams did a week ago, but also liked his matchup last week). At this point, I can’t elevate McCoy over a volume-dependent RB2), Charles Clay (New England has shown they’re willing to let teams target their tight ends while focusing on the hammer-altering options within their opponents’ offense), Dion Lewis

 

Editor's Note: Play against our writers in the Rotoworld Football Championship – a series of one-week fantasy contests on FanDuel with $20K in FREE prizes! Enter the Week 2 contest before it fills.

 

Tennessee vs. Cleveland

 

Titans @ Browns
-1 Spread 1
21 Team O/U 20
50.0 Plays/Gm 63.0
63.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.0
64.0% Rush % 44.4%
36.0% Pass % 55.6%
41.3% Opp. Rush % 60.0%
58.7% Opp. Pass % 40.0%

 

  • The Titans had gone 45 games since the last time they scored at least 42 points in a game before last week.
  • Marcus Mariota was the second rookie quarterback ever to throw four touchdown passes in his first start. The first was Fran Tarkenton in 1961.
  • Last week was just the 10th game over the past five seasons in which a quarterback reached 20 fantasy points with fewer than 20 passing attempts.
  • Kendall Wright finished ninth in points Week 1 (20.1), but ran just 13 pass routes, which ranked 82nd.
  • Bishop Sankey averaged 4.7 yards after contact per attempt last week, second highest in the league.
  • In this meeting last year, the Browns ran for 176 yards, their second highest total on the season.
  • Browns quarterbacks ran eight times for 58 yards last week while their running backs carried 20 times for 46 yards.
  • Isaiah Crowell hasn't averaged 4.0 yards per carry in any of his past six games played.

 

TrustBishop Sankey (involved in the pass game more than as a rookie at least to start, Terrance West may vulture one here for narrative purposes)

 

Bust: Johnny Manziel (I’d bump up Josh McCown to bottom rung streamer if he clears concussion protocol, but Manziel has been reliably untrustworthy so far with the football), Delanie Walker (Browns defend tight ends well, dealing with hand injury)

 

Reasonable Return: Marcus Mariota (doubtful he’s significantly turnover-prone and wasn’t forced to use his legs last week), Kendall Wright (hyper efficient on small opportunity, should see a bump in snaps this week), Isaiah Crowell (the Titans had trouble defending Doug Martin until the game script negated him)

 

Houston vs. Carolina

 

Texans @ Panthers
3 Spread -3
17.5 Team O/U 21.5
73.0 Plays/Gm 68.0
67.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.0
28.8% Rush % 51.5%
71.2% Pass % 48.5%
47.8% Opp. Rush % 31.8%
52.2% Opp. Pass % 68.2%

 

  • Greg Olsen has now been targeted just three times in three consecutive games dating back to last season.
  • 12 of Jonathan Stewart's 18 carries last week went for two or fewer yards.
  • Cam Newton has thrown 1 or fewer touchdown passes on 11 of his past 15 starts.
  • DeAndre Hopkins had eight receptions for 94 yards and a score last week in the second half after a one catch, four yard first half for his first touchdown.
  • Hopkins had four red zone targets and two red zone scores last week after having just 13 targets and two touchdowns there in all of 2014.
  • Carolina has allowed one running back to reach 60 yards in a game against them over their past eight games.
  • The Panthers are 5-1 in Newton's last six starts including the postseason. In those games, Newton has averaged 10.3 rushing attempts per game. Prior to that stretch, he ran 10 or more times in just two of his previous 11 games.

 

TrustDeAndre Hopkins (Houston moved him around a lot last week after a quiet open, so expecting him to avoid Josh Norman enough)

 

Bust: Jonathan Stewart (Carolina struggled to create room for him the second half and will be facing an aggressive front that held Jamaal Charles in check on the ground), Nate Washington (forget chasing last week’s points against this secondary)

 

Reasonable Return: Cam Newton (for now, Newton remains a mid-QB2 until his supporting cast improves), Greg Olsen (Carolina nursed a lead almost the entire afternoon last week, if forced to throw, Olsen shouldn’t give us another empty week)

 

Arizona vs. Chicago

 

Cardinals @ Bears
-2 Spread 2
23.5 Team O/U 21.5
57.0 Plays/Gm 71.0
70.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 53.0
43.9% Rush % 46.5%
56.1% Pass % 53.5%
28.6% Opp. Rush % 56.6%
71.4% Opp. Pass % 43.4%

 

  • Arizona is 17-6 when Carson Palmer starts since acquiring him and 5-5 in other games. They are 14-2 in his past 16 starts.
  • Over those 16 games, Palmer has completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 4,466 yards (7.9 Y/A) to go with 30 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
  • In those games, Larry Fitzgerald has 87 receptions for 1,080 yards and eight touchdowns on 123 targets.
  • Chicago allowed the second highest amount of passing points per attempt last season (.522) and already allowed the third highest total in Week 1 (.850).
  • Matt Forte's 141 rushing yards were his highest total in a game since Week 7, 2011 (145 yards).
  • Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Forte accounted for 25 of 36 targets Week 1.
  • Jay Cutler completed just 50 percent of his passes last week, his lowest total in a full game since Week 16, 2012.

 

TrustCarson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Forte (the offense still channels through him and Arizona had trouble with assignments on the Saints’ backs last week in the pass game), Martellus Bennett (believe he sees a natural trickle down from Jeffery having the toughest draw)

 

Bust: Eddie Royal (played as many snaps as Jeffery a week ago and was fourth on the target totem. Needs big volume to create a floor), Chris Johnson (was serviceable cleaning up after Andre Ellington went down, but doesn’t offer as much in versatility and Chicago is set up to be beaten through the air), Michael Floyd (only played nine snaps last week and already feels like he’s a ancillary option in this offense)

 

Reasonable Return: Alshon Jeffery (he’ll get Patrick Peterson all game, but I don’t think he’ll be negated to the level Brandin Cooks was a week ago), John Brown (touchdown viability still isn’t bankable enough for me to vault him into set and forget WR2 land yet), David Johnson (adds another dynamic to the passing game and should see work on the ground this week)

 

San Diego vs. Cincinnati

 

Chargers @ Bengals
3 Spread -3
21 Team O/U 24
74.0 Plays/Gm 65.0
47.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.0
40.5% Rush % 47.7%
59.5% Pass % 52.3%
34.0% Opp. Rush % 26.2%
66.0% Opp. Pass % 73.8%

 

  • Keenan Allen's 88.2 percent catch rate (catching 15 of 17 targets) last week ranks as the fourth highest mark out of the 564 games when a player has had 15 or more targets since target data has been tracked.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Stevie Johnson had an average depth of target of 0.5 yards last week.
  • 32 (76.2 percent) of Philip Rivers' passes last week were under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.
  • Just nine receivers have had six or more receptions facing the Bengals since the start of last season.
  • The Bengals allowed the fourth most receptions (93) and the second most receiving yards (826) to running backs last season. In Week 1, they allowed
  • 14 receptions for 94 yards to Raider running backs.
  • Danny Woodhead handled all eight backfield touches in the red zone Week 1.
  • San Diego allowed just seven receptions to wide receivers last week.
  • Tyler Eifert was targeted on 17.9 percent of his snaps, highest of all tight ends.

TrustTyler Eifert (maybe I’m chasing last week, or the fact that San Diego may approach covering A.J. Green in a similar fashion as they did Calvin Johnson a week ago, which freed up Eric Ebron to have a useful week), Jeremy Hill (low efficiency week saved by short scores, volume will be here again), Danny Woodhead (this game sets up almost identically to last week’s matchup except the receivers have a tougher matchup)

 

Bust: Keenan Allen (we’ve seen Allen have high volume games before, but his role was no different than it was a season ago. Expect the play volume to be much lower this week), Melvin Gordon (played well early before his fumble, but the backfield usage sets up to be the same in this matchup), Stevie Johnson, Marvin Jones (not enough volume for everyone and Jason Verrett is an ascending talent)

 

Reasonable Return: Philip Rivers (in control of intermediate passing attack, but doubtful they hang 30 plus up this week), Ladarius Green (believe he and Woodhead are the big lifters and the Bengals’ linebackers aren’t juggernauts in coverage), A.J. Green (Oakland bracketed him, while San Diego had success letting Brandon Flowers follow Calvin Johnson with help), Gio Bernard, Andy Dalton

 

Detroit vs. Minnesota

 

Lions @ Vikings
3 Spread -3
20 Team O/U 23
47.0 Plays/Gm 54.0
57.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.0
34.0% Rush % 31.5%
66.0% Pass % 68.5%
40.5% Opp. Rush % 59.1%
59.5% Opp. Pass % 40.9%

 

  • Matt Stafford's past four starts against the Vikings: QB10, QB19, QB24 and QB20.
  • Calvin Johnson was targeted on just 13.3% of his routes in a game with a game script that aided him. Was at 26.4% for the season in '14.
  • Johnson has just one 100-yard receiving game in 13 career games facing the Vikings with seven games under 60 yards.
  • Golden Tate has reached 70 receiving yards in just two of his past eight games.
  • Ameer Abdullah played 28 snaps to Joique Bell's 18 Week 1, with a touch on 39.3 percent of those snaps.
  • Detroit ran just 47 offensive plays last week, their lowest total for a game since Week 5, 2011.
  • Charles Johnson played the most snaps (55) of the Vikings receivers, but received just three targets, tied for fourth on the team, while Mike Wallace had seven.
  • Adrian Peterson played 36 snaps Week 1, Matt Asiata 22 and Jerick McKinnon 15.
  • Minnesota allowed five sacks and eight hits on Teddy Bridgewater this past week. They’ve now allowed three or more sacks in six consecutive games.

 

TrustAmeer Abdullah (electric start in a game that featured almost no offensive volume and Minnesota had no answer for the 49er run game)

 

Bust: Calvin Johnson (a lot of noise has been made about his usage and it should jump back, but the system seems intent on limiting Stafford and Johnson had a tough time with Xavier Rhodes a year ago), Joique Bell (should see his role increase, but Abdullah is too good to keep off of the field more)

 

Reasonable Return: Adrian Peterson (Detroit held up their end defending he run last week and their front is far superior to the Viking offensive line), Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson (anticipating a bounce back for this passing game as a whole, but there’s not enough volume here weekly to support both), Matt Stafford (Detroit has been a subpar offensive team on the road since last year, but I expect them to run it well), Golden Tate, Kyle Rudolph, Eric Ebron

 

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

 

Buccaneers @ Saints
10 Spread -10
17.5 Team O/U 28.5
63.0 Plays/Gm 70.0
50.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 57.0
51.4% Rush % 28.6%
41.3% Pass % 71.4%
64.0% Opp. Rush % 43.9%
36.0% Opp. Pass % 56.1%

 

  • Drew Brees has thrown for at least 300 yards and multiple scores in his past three home games facing Tampa Bay.
  • Both Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram each had 13 touches on first or second down. Ingram had five third down touches to Robinson's one.
  • Brees attempted 12 passes behind the line of scrimmage last week.
  • Saints’ receivers accounted for just 52 percent of the team targets (25), 40 percent of the receptions (12) and 51 percent of receiving yards (182) in week 1.
  • The Saints ran for just .27 rushing points per attempt last week, lowest in the league.
  • Doug Martin ran 10 times for 48 yards in the first half last week before trailing 35-7, then just once for four yards afterwards.
  • The Saints had just two sacks the entire preseason and failed to record a sack last week, registering just one quarterback hit.
  • New Orleans allowed 36.4 yards per drive last season, second most in the league. The allowed 43.3 yards per drive last week.
  • Tampa Bay had only 18.8 yards per drive against the Titans, second fewest of any team last weekend.
  • Vincent Jackson has had less than seven yards per target in 10 of his past 17 games played.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Austin Seferian-Jenkins ran 58.1 percent of his routes (18) from the slot, highest percentage of all tight ends that ran 30 or more routes Week 1.

 

TrustDrew Brees, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks (big bounce back for the Saints’ offense here), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (his production was somewhat fluky, but should see usage continually grow. If Mike Evans goes, bump him down)

 

Bust: Marques Colston (out-snapped by Brandon Coleman and ineffective with opportunities)

 

Reasonable Return: Brandon Coleman, Doug Martin (the Bucs can run here, but for how long?), Vincent Jackson (more of the same from Jackson in Week 1 as we saw all of last year, empty volume and could’ve been touchdown opportunities), Jameis Winston (a sneaky streamer this week while owners are riding high on Mariota. Faces no pass rush and a depleted secondary, but also likely tilted game script for the second week in a row), Khiry Robinson

 

Atlanta vs. New York (NFC)

 

Falcons @ Giants
2.5 Spread -2.5
24 Team O/U 27
70.0 Plays/Gm 61.0
68.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.0
50.0% Rush % 39.3%
50.0% Pass % 60.7%
23.5% Opp. Rush % 33.8%
76.5% Opp. Pass % 66.2%

 

  • Going back to last season, the past 11 QB finishes versus the Giants: QB7, QB2, QB6, QB16, QB4, QB13, QB30, QB8, QB11, QB6 and QB6.
  • Matt Ryan had just one top-10 scoring finish on the road last season.
  • Julio Jones has gone over 100-yards receiving in four of his past five games and in this matchup a season ago, Jones had 11 catches for 105 yards on 16 targets.
  • Tevin Coleman played 44 snaps to Devonta Freeman's 29, while out-touching him 20 to 13.
  • The Giants backfield split for snaps was Shane Vereen (26), Rashad Jennings (24) and Andre Williams (19).
  • The touch percentage for snaps played from the same group was Jennings (54.2 percent), Williams (31.6 percent) and Vereen (26.9 percent).
  • Eli Manning (eight yards) and Dwayne Harris (11 yards) had the Giants’ two longest runs of the game until Jennings' 27 yard run with 3:18 left in the game.
  • Last week was the first time Manning failed to throw a touchdown or hit 200 passing yards over his past 10 games played.
  • Atlanta allowed 14 receptions to running backs last week, second highest in the league. They allowed the seventh most catches to backs (88) in 2014.

 

TrustJulio Jones, Matt Ryan (even on the road, the matchup is too soft for him not to exploit), Shane Vereen (will have a big matchup on Atlanta’s linebackers)

 

Bust: Odell Beckham (locking up with Desmond Trufant, opportunities will be scarce), Rashad Jennings, Roddy White (Amukamara a tougher draw than Nolan Carroll)

 

Reasonable Return: Eli Manning (started slow last year before rolling, even prior to Beckham’s arrival), Rueben Randle, Devonta Freeman (assuming Atlanta has seen how the Giants’ linebackers fared in space last week they should use Freeman), Tevin Coleman

 

San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh

 

49ers @ Steelers
5.5 Spread -5.5
20 Team O/U 24.5
66.0 Plays/Gm 66.0
54.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.0
59.1% Rush % 37.9%
40.9% Pass % 62.1%
31.5% Opp. Rush % 41.4%
68.5% Opp. Pass % 58.6%

 

  • Last week was DeAngelo Williams' first 100-yard rushing game since Week 3, 2013.
  • 57.1 percent (12 of 21) of Williams' carries went for five or more yards, league average was 38.7 percent.
  • Heath Miller finished tied for second of all tight ends in targets (11) and receptions (eight) Week 1, matching the team lead in targets.
  • Carlos Hyde's 168 rushing yards were the most by a 49er back since Frank Gore's 207 Week 2, 2009.
  • Hyde led the league in runs of 10 or more yards in Week 1 with six.  Williams was second with five.
  • Hyde’s 1.11 rushing points per attempt was the highest of all backs with 15 or more carries in Week 1.
  • Over the past 11 games facing the Steelers, 10 opposing quarterbacks have finished in the top half of scoring for the week, with nine finishing as top-10 options.
  • Colin Kaepernick has passed for 250 yards or more just once over his past 10 games.

 

TrustAntonio Brown, Heath Miller, Ben Roethlisberger (high volume for a home favorite), Carlos Hyde

 

Bust: Torrey Smith (too low of a weekly floor to ever feel good about playing), Vernon Davis, Markus Wheaton (played his way out of a major role last year and already was outplayed by Darrius Heyward-Bey to begin the year)

 

Reasonable Return: DeAngelo Williams (space won’t be as advantageous, but a heavy home favorite), Colin Kaepernick (tempo increase with this system, but also putting him in a position to make a lot of low leverage throws), Anquan Boldin (would be higher on this matchup if San Francisco wasn’t coming in for an early start on a short week)

 

St. Louis vs. Washington

 

Rams @ Washington
-3 Spread 3
21.5 Team O/U 20
55.0 Plays/Gm 69.0
79.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 55.0
47.3% Rush % 53.6%
52.7% Pass % 46.4%
40.5% Opp. Rush % 32.7%
59.5% Opp. Pass % 67.3%

 

  • Jordan Reed ranked second of all tight ends in target per route percentage in 2014 (26.4%) behind only Gronk. He was targeted on 44 percent of his routes (11 of 25) Week 1, highest of all tight ends.
  • Alfred Morris had 25 rushing attempts last week, his highest total in 23 games played. 17 came in the first half. 
  • In this meeting a year ago, Morris carried a career-low eight times (for six yards), the only time he's had single digit carries in a game.
  • In his past three starts, Kirk Cousins has thrown an interception once every 14.2 pass attempts and a touchdown once every 28.3 attempts. Cousins has thrown multiple interceptions in seven of his 15 career games/appearances.
  • Washington allowed seven sacks and nine quarterback hits in this meeting a year ago.
  • Nick Foles had eight completions of 20 or more yards last week. Last season, no Rams passer had more than six in a given game with only three games having three or more 20-plus yard completions.
  • Jared Cook had three of those receptions. He posted a 4/61/2 line in this meeting a year ago.
  • The past six starting tight ends to face Washington have been TE1, TE5, TE30, TE3, TE15 and TE16.

 

TrustJared Cook (no real receiver presence to get in his way for targets and has the best matchup)

 

Bust: Alfred Morris, Kirk Cousins

 

Reasonable Return: Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed (passing volume will exist, but both need a score this week to crash into their ceiling in a tough matchup for this offense), Nick Foles (played well against a high-end defense in Rams debut), Benny Cunningham (relevant PPR floor)

 

Baltimore vs. Oakland

 

Ravens @ Raiders
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
57.0 Plays/Gm 61.0
69.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.0
40.4% Rush % 26.2%
59.6% Pass % 73.8%
36.2% Opp. Rush % 47.7%
63.8% Opp. Pass % 52.3%

 

  • Justin Forsett ran for fewer than four yards per carry just twice all of 2014. His 3.1 yards per carry was the third lowest of his career in games in which he had double digit attempts (22 games).
  • The Ravens averaged just 15.9 yards per drive last week, fewest in the league.
  • Joe Flacco's 117 passing yards last week was his lowest total in his past 66 complete games.
  • His 3.7 yards per attempt was the third lowest mark of his career.
  • Oakland allowed the eighth highest passing points per attempt last week at .552.
  • Crockett Gillmore played 95 percent of the offensive snaps, but was targeted just four times on 32 pass routes.
  • Latavius Murray was a game script victim Week 1, carrying 10 times for 42 yards in the first half, but just once for two yards afterward.
  • Baltimore allowed the third fewest rushing points per attempt in 2014 (.459) and the second fewest to start off the season at .276 in Week 1.
  • Amari Cooper had just one target further than 10 yards downfield against the Bengals.
  • Baltimore allowed just two completions further than 10 yards downfield against Peyton Manning.

 

TrustSteve Smith, Justin Forsett (Oakland made Jeremy Hill work last week but he’s the most reliable piece of this offense at the moment)

 

Bust: Amari Cooper (another rough matchup to start his career and may not have Derek Carr)

 

Reasonable Return: Joe Flacco (doesn’t have the weapons for me to full-on trust him, but Oakland will be without Charles Woodson and Nate Allen to go with a flimsy set of corners)

 

Miami vs. Jacksonville

 

Dolphins @ Jaguars
-6 Spread 6
23.5 Team O/U 17.5
55.0 Plays/Gm 66.0
69.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.0
32.7% Rush % 31.8%
67.3% Pass % 68.2%
53.6% Opp. Rush % 51.5%
46.4% Opp. Pass % 48.5%

 

  • The Jaguars have allowed just one top-10 QB over the past 13 games dating back to last year.
  • Ryan Tannehill posted his second lowest yardage total (196 passing yards) and his second lowest completion percentage (55.2 percent) on the season in this meeting a year ago.
  • Jarvis Landry has seven or more receptions in six of his past nine games played, but has reached 70 receiving yards just once.
  • Lamar Miller played 80.7 percent of the Miami snaps, but the Dolphins ran just 55 total plays, 27th most in Week 1.
  • Marcedes Lewis ran 30 pass routes Week 1 and failed to be targeted even once.
  • The Jaguars have allowed four sacks in eight consecutive games, longest streak in the league. The next highest is two games.
  • Rashad Greene was targeted on 38.2 percent of his routes (13 of 32), second highest rate of all receivers with 20-plus snaps in route, but was just the
  • fourth receiver since 1990 to have seven or more catches go for 30 yards or less.

 

TrustLamar Miller (heavy favorites and uptick of snaps)

 

Bust: Jordan Cameron (the most yards put up by as tight end against the Jaguars over their past 15 games in 62 yards by Owen Daniels), T.J. Yeldon (the Miami front didn’t live up to billing in the opener, but Yeldon stands to be a victim of game script again as a low scoring underdog), Allen Robinson (free from Josh Norman right into Brent Grimes), Rashad Greene, Blake Bortles

 

Reasonable Return: Jarvis Landry (you know where the floor and ceiling lie), Ryan Tannehill (game script should favor Miller being the most relevant option this week)

 

Dallas vs. Philadelphia

 

Cowboys @ Eagles
5.5 Spread -5.5
24.5 Team O/U 30
68.0 Plays/Gm 68.0
61.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 70.0
33.8% Rush % 23.5%
66.2% Pass % 76.5%
39.3% Opp. Rush % 50.0%
60.7% Opp. Pass % 50.0%

 

  • Jason Witten has just three top-12 scoring weeks over his past eight games facing the Eagles.
  • The last tight end to score against the Eagles was Jack Doyle in Week 2 of last season.
  • Cowboys’ backfield snaps Week One: Lance Dunbar (32), Joseph Randle (27), Darren McFadden (10).
  • Randle led all backs in the league in touch rate per snap at 70.4 percent with 19 touches on 27 snaps.
  • Dunbar's eight targets were tied for the third most of any running back, but these eight touches were the second lowest of any top-20 scoring running back.
  • 38 of Sam Bradford's 52 pass attempts were inside of 10 yards.
  • Ryan Mathews played just 16 snaps to Darren Sproles' 29 and DeMarco Murray's 33. Matthews' first touch came with 6:55 left in the third quarter.
  • The Eagles’ 16 rushing attempts as team was the third fewest total in a game since Chip Kelly has taken over as head coach.
  • Seven of Sproles' 12 touches went for 10 or more yards.
  • The Cowboys have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just two of their past eight games.
  • Nelson Agholor was targeted just two times on 42 snaps in routes, but did run the second most routes to Jordan Matthews' 47.

 

TrustSam Bradford (recovered in the second half this past week, Philadelphia is projected to score 30 points this week), DeMarco Murray, Jordan Matthews (dominated targets and gets the best paper play going against Tyler Patmon who is filling in at the slot corner)

 

Bust: Terrance Williams (still doesn’t have enough nuance to his game to carry a passing game), Jason Witten (there’s a PPR floor here most weeks, but the Eagles destroy tight ends), Nelson Agholor (set of two poor paper plays to start his season, but stayed on the field), Zach Ertz (played 52 snaps last week, but the script should be far more balanced this week), Ryan Mathews (you’re living chasing a touchdown)

 

Reasonable Return: Tony Romo (expecting a death by 1,000 paper cuts approach on offense with Dez Bryant out, Romo’s ceiling is compromised, but Dallas is still projected to score in this one), Joseph Randle (wasn’t flashy, but still put up over 100 total yards), Lance Dunbar and Cole Beasley (expecting a very New England-esque approach which aids both of these intermediate options), Darren Sproles (back to being a matchup nightmare now the Eagles aren’t insulating his usage)

 

Seattle vs. Green Bay

 

Seahawks @ Packers
3.5 Spread -3.5
23 Team O/U 27
79.0 Plays/Gm 53.0
55.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 71.0
40.5% Rush % 56.6%
59.5% Pass % 43.4%
47.3% Opp. Rush % 46.5%
52.7% Opp. Pass % 53.5%

 

  • Green Bay posted 255 and 306 total yards against Seattle last season, their second and third lowest yardage output totals on the season.
  • The Packers averaged 17.1 more points per game at home than on the road last season.
  • Aaron Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes in those games, both to Randall Cobb.
  • 11 of Cobb's past 17 touchdown receptions have come inside of 10 yards.
  • Rodgers faced five defenses last year that ranked in the top half of passing points per attempt allowed (SEA ranked second), his finishes those weeks were QB28, QB28, QB7, QB26 and QB2.
  • The Packers had the fewest number of offensive possessions in 2014, but led the league in scoring rate by scoring on 50 percent of their drives. In Week One, they had the fewest possessions (seven), but scored on five (71 percent).
  • In their two games against Seattle last year, the Packers scored on just 39 percent (nine of 23) of their drives with just three touchdowns.
  • Green Bay allowed 52.0 yards per drive last week, most in the league.
  • In their two meetings last season, Marshawn Lynch posted a 20/110/2 and 25/157/1 lines rushing.
  • Russell Wilson's 41 pass attempts last week were a career high and his 78.1 completion percentage was the second highest of his career, but his 6.1 yards per attempt were the eight lowest in his 49 regular season starts.
  • The Seahawks allowed 8 pass plays of 20-plus yards, most so far in week 1. They allowed just 32 such plays in 2014, fewest in the league.

 

TrustMarshawn Lynch ( a road dog, but Chicago gashed Green Bay on the ground a week ago), Jimmy Graham, Aaron Rodgers ( he would’ve been a fade in this spot a year ago, but with no Kam Chancellor and Cary Williams and DeSean Shead playing heavy snaps, the boundaries can be taken advantage of)

 

Bust: Randall Cobb (Richard Sherman manned the slot in nickel and will see Cobb the most often)

 

Reasonable Return: Davante Adams, James Jones (both will have opportunities on the perimeter), Eddie Lacy, Russell Wilson

 

New York (AFC) vs. Indianapolis

 

Jets @ Colts
7 Spread -7
20 Team O/U 27
60.0 Plays/Gm 68.0
63.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 55.0
60.0% Rush % 25.0%
40.0% Pass % 75.0%
44.4% Opp. Rush % 65.5%
55.6% Opp. Pass % 34.5%

 

  • Donte Moncrief played 74 percent of the team snaps (64) and was targeted on 27.5 percent of his routes, both second on the team in Week 1.
  • Andre Johnson's 2.4 yards per target last week ranked 54th of 59 receivers with five or more targets.
  • Johnson's four receptions last week went for 9, 7, 5 and 3 yards.
  • Frank Gore had a touch on just 30.3 percent (10 of 33) of his snaps in Week 1 which ranked 39th of all backs that played 20 or more snaps.
  • As a team, the Colts have rushed for 100 yards in just four of their past 13 games.
  • The Jets have allowed six rushers to reach 75 yards rushing over their past 33 games.
  • The Jets allowed 12 red zone touchdowns to tight ends last year.
  • Colts tight ends have combined for 13 red zone touchdowns since the start of last season.
  • 16.7 percent of Dwayne Allen's career catches (13 of 78) have been touchdowns.
  • The Colts allowed .42 rushing points per attempt last week, the eighth highest while the Jets averaged .761 points per attempt, the sixth most.
  • In what was presumably a tough matchup headed in, Brandon Marshall was targeted on 37.5 percent of his routes (nine of 24) while Eric Decker was just targeted on 14.3 percent (three of 21).

 

TrustEric Decker (with Vontae Davis shadowing lead options now, Decker is the biggest benefactor and the Jets should be throwing late), Donte Moncrief (was heavily involved a week ago even prior to Hilton leaving and Antonio Cromartie may miss this one)

 

Bust: T.Y. Hilton (will possibly be limited and if he goes draws Revis), Brandon Marshall (I faded Marshall last week against Joe Haden and regretted it, but Haden is no Vontae Davis), Andre Johnson (not sure there’s any ceiling left here), Frank Gore (limited by touches and injury, there are softer matchups around the corner), Ryan Fitzpatrick

Reasonable Return: Andrew Luck (will find enough points not to sink you, but another game in which he’ll be pressured and may not access ceiling), Chris Ivory (I want to love him here, but big road dogs have my expectations tempered), Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen (one or both may score this week)

Context Key:

 

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.