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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: Valspar Championship

Updated On: March 20, 2019, 10:51 am ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel, Yahoo, and DraftKings).

Page 2 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as PGATOUR.com's fantasy game. 
 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 

FanDuel Picks:

Sergio Garcia (11,300): His last four finishes at the Valspar are T15, T16, T7, and solo 4th. I wouldn't mind another top 20 this week. 

Rafa Cabrera Bello (10,000): Had a hiccup at TPC Sawgrass but from a long-term view he's as steady as they get for a $10k golfer. 

Jason Kokrak (9700): The big hitter has been very boom or bust at the Valspar. He brings plenty of risk but he arrives with stellar form and his price doesn't really reflect that. 

Roger Sloan (8000): Finished T12 on overseeded bermuda at this year's Desert Classic. He's gained 3+ strokes over the field in five of his last 11 rounds played. His good rounds are really good. 

Jim Furyk (10,000): He's 9-for-10 at the Valspar with a WIN and three other top 10s.

Webb Simpson (10,700): He loves these venues in the Southeast, in bermuda territory. Finished T8 here last year.

 

DraftKings Picks: 

Nick Watney (7,000): A flawless Valspar resume with 11-of-11 cuts made. 

Rafa Cabrera Bello (8,800): Doesn't rely on distance off the tee but he's strong with his irons from outside 150 yards. That will be a nice fit for the Copperhead Course. 

Patrick Reed (9,500): A budding course horse at Copperhead with finishes of T7 or better in three of his last four trips. 

Roger Sloan (7,000): Simply a "ride the hot hand" play as he's gained 3+ strokes over the field in five of his last seven starts. 

Paul Casey (9,700): His caddie convinced him to return last year and it paid dividends. Johnny Long Socks has now caddied for two winners at Innisbrook (Casey and Luke Donald) so it's safe to say he brings a good game plan. 

Sungjae Im (7,700): He's not long off the tee but he's gained strokes tee-to-green in all but one of his career PGA TOUR events. Keep riding the steady ball-striking. 
 

Yahoo Picks: 

Dustin Johnson (49): He's the class of the field so I will gladly use him as my anchor. Hasn't played here since 2010. 

J.T. Poston (20): Posted a T14 here in 2017 and arrives in stellar form over the winter. 

Sungjae Im (33): His form sheet doesn't read as consistent but his ball-striking consistency should/will lead to a hig cuts-made ratio. Keep riding the train. 

Jim Furyk (27): Finally healthy for the first time in three years (his words) and it's showing with a load of top 20s over the six months. 

Webb Simpson (40): He's always viable when the TOUR heads to the Southeast. Finished T8 here last year. 

Ryan Moore (31): Has top 20s in three of his last four trips to the Copperhead Course. 

One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

To start things off we will have a look at weighted tournament history over the Last 10 years: 

Patrick Reed (4-for-5 with two RUNNER-UPs)
Jim Furyk (9-for-10 with a WIN and RUNNER-UP)
Jason Dufner (9-for-11 with seven top 25s)
Charl Schwartzel (MC-WIN-6th-T49)
Adam Hadwin (71-MC-WIN-T12)
Webb Simpson (6-for-9 with three top 10s)
Henrik Stenson (4th-T11-T7-MC)
Steve Stricker (5-for-8 with three top 10s)
Bill Haas (7-for-10 with three top 20s)
Ryan Moore (7-for-12 with three top 10s)
Sergio Garcia (6-for-6 with a T7 and solo 4th)
Nick Watney (11-for-11 with five top 25s)
Luke Donald (9-for-10 with six top 25s)
Rory Sabbatini (10-for-13 with a T15 and T5)
Louis Oosthuizen (3 MCs; 3 top 20s)

After history, we can look at baseline performance over the last year. This will give us a good feel for who should pop regardless of past course results: 

Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Jon Rahm
Webb Simpson
Gary Woodland
Louis Oosthuizen
Patrick Reed
Paul Casey
Henrik Stenson
Sergio Garcia
Keegan Bradley
Lucas Glover
Tyrrell Hatton
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Zach Johnson

Looking for an overlap list we see a few names pop up: Webb Simpson, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Henrik Stenson, and Sergio Garcia

None of the top tier (DJ, Rahm, Day) finds their way onto my short list. We can save them for later events (or we've already used them). 

Narrowing down the list from there, the second tier for me includes Webb, Sergio, and Reed. That is who I'll choose from. Webb has loads of weak-field events in the future to pluck from. Personally, I snagged a podium finish from him at the RSM. That leaves Sergio or Reed. 

Reed has one of the best short games on TOUR but Sergio is one of the best ball-strikers on the planet. 

Reed is showing glimpses of form but Garcia has loads of top-heavy finishes since August last year (11 top 25s in his last 13 worldwide starts, nine of those doubling as top 10s). I will ride that hot hand and go with Sergio Garcia this week.  

 

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”

Last Week Rank: 1101
Season Rank: 248th

Starters: 

Dustin Johnson
Webb Simpson
Sergio Garcia
Patrick Reed

Bench: 

Jason Day
Jon Rahm
 

Mo Yoshimoto 

“@BearsGolf3423” 

Last Week: 12408
Season Rank: 5,363

Starters:

Keegan Bradley
Patrick Reed
Webb Simpson
Ryan Moore

 

Bench:

Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey


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