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DFS Dish

DFS Dish: The Northern Trust

Updated On: August 6, 2019, 11:05 am ET

The start of the revised FedExCup Playoffs begin this week in New Jersey. 

The course is Liberty National which was last seen hosting the 2017 Presidents Cup. It also hosted the 2009 and 2013 Barclays. 

The field was maxed out at 125 golfers but four golfers are not pegging it this week (Stenson, Casey, Burns, Cabrera Bello). Make sure you avoid them in all lineups. 

That puts it at 121 golfers with top 70 and ties playing the weekend. That is on a similar level as most invitational events like Colonial or Arnie's Invite in terms of the percentage of golfers that will make it through the cut line. 

For DFS purposes that means you can be a little more aggressive with Stars and Scrubs lineups since roughly 60% of golfers will be playing all four rounds this week. 

Let's look at the weather then some course-fit stats to see what golfers might be good additions to a lineup this week for The Northern Trust. 

 

Weather Update

Thursday (R1): A 30% chance of afternoon storms with a high near 86 degrees. Winds at 5 to 9 MPH. 

Friday (R2): Sunny with a high near 83 degrees. Calm winds. 

There is a decent chance of Wednesday precipitation to make the course a little receptive to start the week. Perhaps a slight lean to the early AM starters on Thursday but we should keep an eye on the forecast over the next 24 hours. 

 

DRAFT.com 

The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 
 

OVERRATED GOLFERS

Gary Woodland (68.33 Projected Pts): He's on the record for liking the layout at Liberty National but his game has hit a slump since the big win at Pebble Beach. He arrives with two missed cuts and a T55 (of 63) in three starts since then. He welcomed his twin girls into the world last week so could that be the spark that lights his fire again? It's possible but I'd rather let others take that chance. 

Phil Mickelson (67.96 Projected Pts): He's admitted he's not at his best right now and he's not showing any signs for popping back into form. Lefty has lost 2.9 or more strokes to the field in seven of his last eight starts. He hasn't found a top 50 since the Masters. Ouch. 

UNDERRATED GOLFERS

Collin Morikawa (43.30 Projected Pts): Instead of calculating a decent projection for Morikawa, DRAFT has just slapped him with the 14th-lowest projection on the board. He's gone 7-for-7 with a WIN and two other top 5s since turning pro. He deserves a little more respect than that. 

Adam Scott (65.24 Projected Pts): Looking at his last three measured events, he gained 11.8 strokes on approach at the Memorial, 5.2 SG Approach at the U.S. Open, and 4.7 SG Approach at the WGC-FedEx. He's the last person to win at Liberty National (2013) so he should have good vibes this week, as well. A good week to buy-low when people are scared off by his recent putting woes. 

Course Fit

After a brief stint back on bermudagrass (Memphis and Greenboro), we are back on bentgrass this week. Let's see who likes the surfaces. 

Looking at sample-size-adjusted performance on bentgrass since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

Rickie Fowler
Justin Rose
Patrick Cantlay
Dustin Johnson
Tiger Woods
Brooks Koepka
Tommy Fleetwood
Jordan Spieth
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Hideki Matsuyama
Francesco Molinari
Justin Thomas
Jason Day

Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bentgrass (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

Roger Sloan
Andrew Putnam
Kevin Tway
Joaquin Niemann
Robert Streb
Rickie Fowler
Jordan Spieth
Harold Varner III
C.T. Pan
Keegan Bradley
Shane Lowry
Sam Ryder
Tony Finau
Chris Stroud
Kyle Stanley

Overlap List: Looking for overlap on the two lists we see Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, and Tony Finau

We did bermuda stats last week and those names really popped so this could be good news for Spieth who is still struggling to find any consistency with his game. 

Value Spotlight

Jim Furyk: He's slowed his pace a little since his back-to-back top 10s in Florida. Still, he arrives with finishes of T33 or better in five of his last six starts. On top of that, he's finished 15th and 6th in two trips to Liberty National. He's not the sexiest name when it comes to fantasy scoring but if he maintains his steady top-33 pace then he'll pay off his value across the industry with a little upside to boot, given his history at this week's venue. 

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 


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