Zach Ertz
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Draft Guide Preview

Draft Guide Preview: Draft Day Fades

Updated On: August 27, 2019, 3:52 am ET

There's less than two weeks to NFL Kickoff, which means fantasy football draft season is here in full force. And there's no better resource to help guide you to another championship than our all-new 2019 NFL Draft Guide. This year's edition is a true fantasy behemoth featuring customized projections from 14 different scoring systems, more mock drafts than ever before, over 500 player profiles, positional tiers, keeper tiers, rankings and a ton of exclusive columns.

In this column, the Rotoworld experts each give players whom they are fading at their current ADP.  

Here is a piece:

Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP RB 13)
By now you know the stat: Williams has never exceeded 50 carries in a season. In a vacuum, that means nothing. Williams, after all, rushed the ball 35 times across two playoff games just last January. Records — or previous personal bests — are made to be broken. But that doesn’t change the fact that Williams has been a committee back for his entire NFL career, and might remain one. "We'll do that here," Andy Reid said of a potential committee earlier in August. “They all have their strengths and we’ll try to exploit their strengths there.” Since, the Chiefs have embarked on a Darwin Thompson hype tour, even praising the explosive sixth-rounder’s pass protection. That’s almost unheard for a day-three rookie. Reid has sometimes failed to commit to Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy and Kareem Hunt for weeks at a time. Do we really trust him to go all in on Damien Williams? And if we don’t, why is he going in the second and third rounds of fantasy drafts?   – Patrick Daugherty 

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP of TE 3)
I hate selecting players at their highest value based on the previous season. Ertz posted career highs in targets (44 more than any previous best), catches (38 more) and receiving yards (310 more) in 2018. Ertz consumed 156 targets last season - the next closest Eagle, Nelson Agholor, posted 97 targets. The two were the only starting pass catchers to play more than 13 games as injuries bit the rest of the roster. I like Ertz, he’s likely locked in for 75 catches and over 800 yards, but the added skill players plus healthy pass catchers around Ertz should drop the tight end’s volume significantly. His current draft slot in the late second or third round is about 12 picks too early.   – Josh Norris

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP WR 25)
Williams shrugged off his rookie-year struggles (11-95-0 receiving line in 10 appearances) with an emphatic sophomore breakout, nabbing a team-high 10 touchdown catches (he also contributed a rushing score) while asserting his deep prowess by averaging a healthy 15.4 yards per reception. The third-year Clemson product has built a strong following in the fantasy community but you won’t find me aboard the Williams bandwagon. 2018 was a clever sleight of hand by Williams, who used his red-zone wizardry (league-high six touchdown receptions inside of 10 yards) to obscure the fact he did little else of note, ranking a dismal 83rd in catches (43) while averaging fewer yards per game than waiver-wire chum like Randall Cobb and Cole Beasley. The 24-year-old is a big body playing on a potent offense, which are both pluses. But lightning (no Chargers pun intended) never strikes twice. Last year’s touchdown rate (roughly one end-zone visit every 4.5 touches) was entirely unsustainable, meaning Williams could be in for a major reality check this season. It could get especially dicey for Williams with tight end Hunter Henry—who was limited to a mere 14 snaps last season (all of them coming in the playoffs)—back to gobble up red-zone looks from Philip Rivers.   – Jesse Pantuosco

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (ADP QB 3)
By now, our readers should get it. Don’t draft quarterbacks early. The opportunity cost is too high with the position being so deep, but it goes beyond that with Rodgers. First off, his injury history is really beginning to compile and that gets worse, not better, with age, as evidenced by his current back tightness. But Rodgers will also be heading into an offense that will likely run the ball more -- these advanced preseason numbers back that up -- than he’s used to with ex-Titans OC Matt LaFleur in town. These concerns, plus the opportunity cost of picking a quarterback when Latavius MurrayWill Fuller, and Curtis Samuel are on the board, make Rodgers an easy fade as the QB3, even in sharper industry leagues where quarterbacks are taken later.    – Hayden Winks

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Source URL: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/draft-guide-preview/draft-guide-preview-draft-day-fades