This article lays out my favorite ways to take advantage of positional correlations in DFS scoring through stacking. Factors that go into this strategy include the implied team total, the talent of the players, the opposing defense (especially any funneling tendencies), and the likely popularity of the players. Notice that I won’t be relying on the regular season meetings between these two teams to justify the plays…we simply can’t expect a repeat/replica performance three months later – good or bad.
There is no such thing as a safe stack with only four remaining teams, all of whom have gotten here at least partly with their defense. Mahomes is definitely the safest QB on the slate, with the greatest potential to exceed 300 passing yards and throw for multiple touchdowns. Ditto for Henry, who you can fade at your own risk. There are fewer and fewer guys who can make up for it if you miss out on his potential multi-touchdown, 100-plus rushing yard day. While these two – Mahomes and Henry – take advantage of the opponent defensive weakness best, they will cost you. I talked about a couple cheap wide receivers and tight ends you can use to make it work in Wednesday’s bargain article. Speaking of bargains, Williams isn’t as cheap as he was last week, but he is clearly the guy when the Chiefs get in close, and he’s a great bet to score in what should be another high scoring game for Kansas City.
I’ve got nothing against working in either Travis Kelce, who played amazingly through pain last week and should again, or Tyreek Hill, but Sammy Watkins is the big play guy that I’m loving this week for the price. I don’t trust the passing volume of Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill enough to spend on A.J. Brown, though I’d love to see him have a big game. It doesn’t help that KC held opposing wide receivers to the second-fewest fantasy points during the regular season. Tight end Jonnu Smith is another guy that could be added to this game stack to help with salary concerns. All he really needs is 4-5 targets to be worth the price, at least in PPR, based on his season to date.
The other core lineup I’m building around is the Packers passing attack. Rodgers didn’t have a super high-volume season, but he’s still the next best bet for a 300-yard game this week. Both Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo rely heavily on their run game and defense and while Green Bay is no slouch in those areas, this offense is Rodgers. Rodgers and Adams, that is. While all of Jake Kumerow, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard had three targets in the Divisional Round win over Seattle, a pretty pass-friendly defense for the playoffs, Adams reeled in 8-of-11 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers have been extremely effective in shutting down their opponents, particularly Dalvin Cook last week. That makes it hard to go all in on the Packers with Aaron Jones here which is another reason I’m relying on Rodgers to keep this game close.
To round out the game stack, I like the reduced price of Kittle, who is coming off a terrible game that I think he’s unlikely to repeat. Getting him the ball should be a priority for the Niners. OK, one previous matchup note on Kittle: he went a perfect 6-for-6 for 129 receiving yards and a touchdown against Green Bay in Week 12. As I wrote in the bargain article, adding one or two of the three-headed running back monster of San Francisco is a cheap way to deal with the position (and/or the flex). One of them will have a huge day, guaranteed. Salaries have flipped so that Tevin Coleman is now the most expensive, making it a great spot to slot in Raheem Mostert. I also continue to (irrationally?) love Matt Breida. He’s dirt cheap this weekend, and has been getting his opportunities like the rest of them. The hot legs will get the work, and it could be any of them. Mix and match around the main three players in this more contrarian stack.