Kenneth Murray
AP
NFL Draft Preview

2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Defense)

Updated On: March 6, 2020, 4:03 pm ET

SPARQ does a great job of analyzing overall athleticism, but I showed how little it means for projecting NFL success here. The reason it’s not very helpful as a predictor is because it’s measuring overall athleticism, not the exact athletic traits a prospect needs to play his position in the NFL. For example, the athletic traits a corner needs (speed, agility) are a lot different than the athletic traits a defensive tackle needs (burst, strength), but the SPARQ formula doesn’t change based on position. 

That’s where Adjusted SPARQ comes in. The formulas for Adjusted SPARQ change by position -- and sometimes even within positions (RB, WR) -- to put the proper weight on the athletic traits that have historically been better at predicting success in the NFL. Overall, athleticism is still just a small part of a prospect’s total profile, but I prefer Adjusted SPARQ to other composite athletic scores. Here are the results of the 2020 NFL Draft Class:

 

2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores

* = Incomplete Combine profile.

 

DTs

How to read this: “Khalil Davis is a 100th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete.”

Prospect

Adjusted SPARQ Percentile

SPARQ Percentile

Khalil Davis*

1.00

NA

Carlos Davis*

1.00

NA

Malcolm Roach*

0.93

0.73

Leki Fotu*

0.93

NA

McTelvin Agim*

0.89

NA

Justin Madubuike*

0.84

NA

Neville Gallimore*

0.69

NA

Jordan Elliott*

0.65

0.22

Robert Windsor

0.57

0.36

James Lynch

0.54

0.48

DaVon Hamilton

0.53

0.26

Darrion Daniels

0.51

0.15

Larrell Murchison

0.48

0.38

Raekwon Davis

0.45

0.24

Derrick Brown

0.45

0.33

John Penisini*

0.37

NA

Rashard Lawrence*

0.32

NA

Raequan Williams

0.31

0.06

Ross Blacklock

0.21

0.29

Benito Jones*

0.14

0.08

Josiah Coatney

0.03

0.05

 

Overall, the top prospects (Derrick Brown, Javon Kinlaw) didn’t help their draft stocks, but there were a handful of risers with explosive times at the Combine… Khalil Davis (100th percentile) and Carlos Davis (100th) were elite movers in the weight-adjusted forty, although they didn’t participate in the agility drills.... Malcolm Roach, Leki Fotu, McTelvin Agim, and Justin Madubuike all finished with 84th percentile scores… Neville Gallimore had an elite weight-adjusted forty but tanked the agility drills, finishing as a nice 69th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete… Derrick Brown had a rough day, checking in the 45th percentile. His 10-yard split saved what would’ve been an even lower score. Hopefully he can improve at his Pro Day, or it’s impossible to give him a top-10 overall grade. Non-explosive athletes don’t rush the passer (in general).

 

EDGEs

How to read this: “Jabari Zuniga is a 90th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete.”

Prospect

Adjusted SPARQ Percentile

SPARQ Percentile

Jabari Zuniga*

0.90

0.85

Casey Toohill

0.89

0.94

James Smith-Williams

0.83

0.66

Carter Coughlin*

0.82

0.85

Terrell Lewis*

0.79

NA

Derrek Tuszka

0.71

0.53

D.J. Wonnum

0.69

0.53

Yetur Gross-Matos*

0.68

NA

Curtis Weaver*

0.68

NA

Alex Highsmith

0.68

0.53

Jonathan Garvin*

0.66

0.61

Alton Robinson

0.65

0.72

Zack Baun

0.60

0.55

Qaadir Sheppard*

0.39

0.23

Marlon Davidson*

0.33

NA

Kenny Willekes

0.33

0.33

Nick Coe

0.32

0.21

Jonathan Greenard

0.32

0.21

Jason Strowbridge

0.20

0.21

Trevon Hill*

0.18

0.03

A.J. Epenesa

0.17

0.15

Bradlee Anae

0.13

0.11

Ladarius Hamilton

0.09

0.05

Kendall Coleman

0.07

0.05

Chauncey Rivers

0.03

0.01

 

Overall, this edge class stinks and didn’t help themselves at the Combine… Chase Young didn’t test, but he doesn’t have to after destroying the Big Ten last season… It was the Tier 2 edge rushers who were so disappointing. A.J. Epenesa arguably lost the most money last week of anyone who tested, finishing as a 17th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete. He’ll have to improve at his Pro Day to regain his Day 1 status… Terrell Lewis and Yetur Gross-Matos did okay in the drills they participated in, but they didn’t run the forty… Luckily, Jabari Zuniga, Casey Toohill, James Smith-Williams, and Carter Coughlin all finished inside the 80th percentile as above-average athletes for the position.

 

LBs

How to read this: “Isaiah Simmons is a 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete.”

Prospect

Adjusted SPARQ Percentile

SPARQ Percentile

Isaiah Simmons*

0.99

0.98

Willie Gay

0.94

0.98

Kenneth Murray

0.88

0.94

Davion Taylor*

0.82

0.85

Patrick Queen

0.81

0.84

Jordan Brooks*

0.78

NA

Shaun Bradley*

0.76

0.64

Malik Harrison*

0.73

0.77

Logan Wilson

0.63

0.61

Azur Kamara

0.53

0.26

Khaleke Hudson

0.49

0.68

Mykal Walker

0.44

0.56

Jacob Phillips

0.36

0.70

Evan Weaver

0.28

0.32

Scoota Harris

0.27

0.15

Dante Olson*

0.25

0.74

Joe Bachie

0.25

0.54

Cameron Brown

0.23

0.46

Chapelle Russell

0.23

0.44

Shaquille Quarterman*

0.22

0.29

Justin Strnad*

0.15

0.09

Cale Garrett

0.12

0.49

Michael Divinity*

0.12

0.11

Daniel Bituli*

0.11

0.22

David Woodward*

0.08

0.13

Francis Bernard*

0.08

0.20

 

Overall, this is a top heavy linebacker class, but there are some athletic sleepers to be had on Days 2 and 3… Isaiah Simmons rightfully called it a day after running a 4.39 forty, which locked in a 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ score. He’ll be a top-7 pick… Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen pulled up with hamstring injuries but did enough before leaving to earn 88th percentile and 81st percentile Adjusted SPARQ scores… Willie Gay saw his stock climb at the Combine with an 94th percentile score. He earned the "Now I have to go back and watch the tape" award.

 

CBs

How to read this: “Jeffrey Okudah is a 96th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete.”

Prospect

Adjusted SPARQ Percentile

SPARQ Percentile

Jeffrey Okudah*

0.96

0.99

C.J. Henderson*

0.92

0.95

Brian Cole*

0.87

NA

Reggie Robinson

0.81

0.92

Javelin Guidry*

0.77

NA

Lamar Jackson*

0.75

0.65

Kristian Fulton

0.70

0.69

Harrison Hand

0.69

0.95

A.J. Terrell*

0.67

0.86

Michael Ojemudia

0.66

0.67

Kindle Vildor

0.60

0.94

Essang Bassey

0.56

0.89

Darnay Holmes*

0.53

NA

Troy Pride

0.52

0.48

Noah Igbinoghene*

0.44

0.66

A.J. Green*

0.43

NA

Stantley Thomas-Oliver*

0.36

0.69

Josiah Scott*

0.35

NA

Jaylon Johnson

0.28

0.64

Jeff Gladney

0.27

0.47

Damon Arnette*

0.26

NA

John Reid

0.25

0.90

Javaris Davis*

0.24

0.60

Dane Jackson

0.07

0.30

Stanford Samuels*

0.06

NA

Cameron Dantzler*

0.05

0.15

Trajan Bandy*

0.04

NA

James Pierre

0.02

0.24

 

Overall, this corner class is fine, but also includes a potentially rare top-five prospect… Jeffrey Okudah’s tape was phenomenal in my opinion -- go watch him against Clemson -- and he backed it up with 96th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism. Okudah is clearly the top corner and will be among my top non-quarterback prospects this season… C.J. Henderson is the No. 2 corner in the class, especially after showcasing 92nd percentile adjusted athleticism. He should be consistently mocked within the first 20 picks now… Most of the Day 2 corners tested near historical averages, except for Damon Arnette (26th percentile) and Cameron Dantzler (5th percentile) who disappointed versus expectations. Dantzler needs to improve his scores at his Pro Day or he’s cancelled.

 

Ss

How to read this: “Kyle Duggar is a 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete.”

Prospect

Adjusted SPARQ Percentile

SPARQ Percentile

Kyle Dugger*

0.99

0.99

Jeremy Chinn*

0.98

0.99

Tanner Muse*

0.91

0.94

Daniel Thomas*

0.83

0.91

L'Jarius Sneed*

0.81

0.98

Antoine Brooks*

0.75

0.53

K'Von Wallace

0.74

0.97

Antoine Winfield Jr.*

0.60

0.82

Jaylinn Hawkins

0.55

NA

Kamren Curl*

0.49

0.66

Chris Miller

0.46

0.79

Geno Stone*

0.45

0.26

Josh Metellus

0.34

0.71

Terrell Burgess*

0.33

0.65

J.R. Reed*

0.28

0.66

Alohi Gilman

0.21

0.34

Rodney Clemons*

0.16

0.10

Jordan Fuller

0.11

0.28

Nevelle Clarke

0.10

NA

Xavier McKinney*

0.08

0.20

Grayland Arnold

0.07

0.23

Jalen Elliott

0.06

0.28

Myles Bryant

0.01

0.07

 

Overall, the safety class lacks a true blue-chip prospect, but there were a few athletic freaks to round out the Day 2 options… Specifically, Kyle Dugger (99th percentile), Jeremy Chinn (98th), and Tanner Muse (91st) were borderline rare athletes for their size. Even Daniel Thomas, L’Jarius Sneed, Antoine Brooks, and K’Von Wallace finished as top 74th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athletes… Xavier McKinney finishing in the 8th percentile will most likely prevent him from being a Day 1 prospect in my model, but it’s important to remember how little athleticism matters for safety. The position requires in-depth knowledge and instincts, which isn’t measured publicly in Indy.

 

What's Next

1. Position-Adjusted SPARQ

2. Early QB Rankings (Analytics)

3. Early TE Rankings (Analytics)

4. Early RB Rankings (Analytics)

5. Early WR Rankings (Analytics)

6. Which Combine Tests Matter

7. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Offense)

8. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Defense)

9. Analytics Top 250

10. Winks Top 250

11. Mock Draft

12. Analytics Draft Grades


Source URL: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/2020-adjusted-sparq-scores-defense