Jerry Jeudy
AP
NFL Draft Preview

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

Updated On: March 16, 2020, 5:08 pm ET

Before we get to the rankings, I’ve decided to make the “10 Draft Commandments” after doing all of this research:

1) Understand that all of our prospect rankings suck. Even multi-million dollar GMs are bad. 

2) Seriously. Everyone sucks at this. Draft Twitter, anonymous scouts, Belichick. All quite bad!

3) With that out of the way… Try to trade down, unless you’re drafting a quarterback.

4) Adjust for positional value. QB > other positions > RB.

5) Athleticism matters more on defense than it does on offense, especially at EDGE.

6) Younger players are typically better. Adjust college production by age.

7) College production matters more at some positions (QB, RB, WR, EDGE, LB).

8) Counting and market share stats are more important than efficiency stats.

9) TFLs and solo tackles are more predictive than sacks for DT, EDGE, and LB prospects.

10) Players on good college teams are usually better. Small school prospects aren’t discounted.

 

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

If you’re curious about the step-by-step process of this project, I outlined it under the Top 300 Big Board on Page 4, but essentially I’m projecting NFL production using college stats, athleticism, and film. That means this is NOT an analytics-only big board. Instead, it’s a big board that combines film grades and analytics, adjusting for positional value of course. That’s why you’ll see QB Jordan Love ranked highly despite not being an analytics quarterback. If I was only using analytics, Love wouldn’t be a top-five quarterback prospect, but ignoring film (or analytics) is a bad process, as the kids say.

 

Page 1: QB, RB, WR, TE

Page 2: OT, IOL, DT, EDGE

Page 3: LB, CB, S

Page 4: Top 300 Big Board and Methodology

 

Quarterbacks

How to read this table: “Justin Herbert, an 82nd percentile quarterback prospect, is the QB4 and No. 5 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

1

Joe Burrow

QB1

0.98

Ranked 4th-of-179 in my QB database

2

Tua Tagovailoa

QB2

0.93

2nd in Total QBR in 2018 and 2019

4

Jalen Hurts

QB3

0.91

Efficient 21yo passer with rushing ability

5

Justin Herbert

QB4

0.82

Traits paired with above-avg production

13

Jordan Love

QB5

0.69

Awful numbers, will still be drafted high

24

Anthony Gordon

QB6

0.62

95th percentile in Total EPA, small arm

26

Jake Fromm

QB7

0.61

Below-average stats/traits but smart

32

Jacob Eason

QB8

0.57

Big arm but 1 year of average production

174

Nathan Stanley

QB9

0.26

 

186

Steven Montez

QB10

0.25

 

201

Brian Lewerke

QB11

0.23

 

206

Shea Patterson

QB12

0.22

 

247

Cole McDonald

QB13

0.15

 

299

James Morgan

QB14

0.08

 

 

For more on the quarterback class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

 

 

Running Backs

How to read this table: “Jonathan Taylor, a 96th percentile running back prospect, is the RB1 and No. 58 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

58

Jonathan Taylor

RB1

0.96

3 seasons of 1,975+ RuYDs, 4.39 speed

64

J.K. Dobbins

RB2

0.95

21yo, 161 ToYD/G, most 20+ yard rushes

76

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB3

0.89

21yo, 94 RuYD/G, 55 catches, 4.60 forty

84

D'Andre Swift

RB4

0.82

21yo, efficient runner, 73 career catches

98

Cam Akers

RB5

0.76

20yo, 14 TDs/30 catches at FSU, 4.47 forty

128

Zack Moss

RB6

0.63

 

132

AJ Dillon

RB7

0.62

 

140

Eno Benjamin

RB8

0.56

 

179

Antonio Gibson

RB9

0.43

 

202

Ke'Shawn Vaughn

RB10

0.37

 

203

Lamical Perine

RB11

0.37

 

212

Darrynton Evans

RB12

0.34

 

213

Joshua Kelley

RB13

0.33

 

230

Anthony McFarland

RB14

0.28

 

257

Michael Warren

RB15

0.21

 

287

Scottie Phillips

RB16

0.15

 

289

LeVante Bellamy

RB17

0.14

 

292

J.J. Taylor

RB18

0.11

 

293

DeeJay Dallas

RB19

0.11

 

294

Salvon Ahmed

RB20

0.11

 

297

Ben LeMay

RB21

0.10

 

 

For more on the running back class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

 

 

Receivers

How to read this table: “Henry Ruggs, a 96th percentile receiver prospect, is the WR3 and No. 16 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

8

CeeDee Lamb

WR1

0.98

99th percentile production, 15.1 YPT

15

Jerry Jeudy

WR2

0.96

96th percentile production at Alabama

16

Henry Ruggs

WR3

0.96

4.27 forty, 13.5 YPT only trails Lamb

19

Justin Jefferson

WR4

0.95

111-1,540-18 as a 20yo, 4.43 forty

31

Tee Higgins

WR5

0.88

6'4/216, 21yo, 36th percentile athlete

43

Denzel Mims

WR6

0.87

66-1,020-12 last year, 90th percentile athlete

46

Brandon Aiyuk

WR7

0.83

Late bloomer, 12 YPT, above-avg athlete

48

Chase Claypool

WR8

0.83

21yo, 6'4/238, elite athlete, productive

52

Laviska Shenault

WR9

0.82

21yo, big producer/athlete when healthy

53

KJ Hamler

WR10

0.82

Small but 20yo and fast, 70 YPG, drops

66

Gabriel Davis

WR11

0.75

21yo, 103 YD/G at UCF, average athlete

69

Jalen Reagor

WR12

0.73

Bursty, early-age producer but 6.9 YPT

80

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR13

0.68

21yo, only 40 YD/G, 97th percentile athlete

85

Tyler Johnson

WR14

0.67

99th percentile market share, iffy athlete

89

Devin Duvernay

WR15

0.66

107 YD/G at Texas, 4.39 speed at 5'10/200

94

Bryan Edwards

WR16

0.65

Early SCAR producer, 82 YD/G, foot injury

97

Michael Pittman

WR17

0.63

98 YD/G at USC, 4.52 forty at 6'4/223

104

Isaiah Hodgins

WR18

0.62

 

127

Antonio Gandy-Golden

WR19

0.57

 

159

Quez Watkins

WR20

0.47

 

170

Collin Johnson

WR21

0.42

 

172

Quintez Cephus

WR22

0.41

 

178

Omar Bayless

WR23

0.39

 

181

Van Jefferson

WR24

0.38

 

182

Marquez Callaway

WR25

0.36

 

187

Cody White

WR26

0.34

 

189

Dezmon Patmon

WR27

0.33

 

193

K.J. Hill

WR28

0.31

 

194

Freddie Swain

WR29

0.31

 

196

Quartney Davis

WR30

0.29

 

209

Jauan Jennings

WR31

0.27

 

211

James Proche

WR32

0.27

 

214

Lawrence Cager

WR33

0.25

 

227

Juwan Johnson

WR34

0.22

 

228

Binjimen Victor

WR35

0.18

 

232

Kendrick Rogers

WR36

0.17

 

234

Darnell Mooney

WR37

0.17

 

236

Trishton Jackson

WR38

0.16

 

249

Austin Mack

WR39

0.12

 

250

Kalija Lipscomb

WR40

0.12

 

273

John Hightower

WR41

0.08

 

276

Joe Reed

WR42

0.07

 

278

K.J. Osborn

WR43

0.06

 

282

Tyrie Cleveland

WR44

0.05

 

285

Stephen Guidry

WR45

0.05

 

290

Tony Brown

WR46

0.04

 

295

Lynn Bowden Jr.

WR47

0.03

 

298

Chris Finke

WR48

0.02

 

 

For more on the receiver class, read my early reports and statistical evals here.

 

 

Tight Ends

How to read this table: “Hunter Bryant, a 83rd percentile tight end prospect, is the TE2 and No. 68 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

50

Cole Kmet

TE1

0.89

21yo, 65th percentile athlete, ND baseball

68

Hunter Bryant

TE2

0.83

21yo, great producer, oddly bad Combine

72

Adam Trautman

TE3

0.81

Elite producer at Dayton, agile, avg speed

77

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE4

0.75

Up-and-down producer, straight-line speed

114

Colby Parkinson

TE5

0.68

 

124

Harrison Bryant

TE6

0.62

 

129

Brycen Hopkins

TE7

0.59

 

135

Thaddeus Moss

TE8

0.56

 

152

Jacob Breeland

TE9

0.46

 

199

Josiah Deguara

TE10

0.32

 

204

Devin Asiasi

TE11

0.31

 

222

Stephen Sullivan

TE12

0.23

 

233

Charlie Taumoepeau

TE13

0.18

 

235

Sean McKeon

TE14

0.17

 

243

Dalton Keene

TE15

0.14

 

272

Jared Pinkney

TE16

0.09

 

274

C.J. O'Grady

TE17

0.07

 

291

Charlie Woerner

TE18

0.04

 

296

Dom Wood-Anderson

TE19

0.02

 

300

Mitchell Wilcox

TE20

0.01

 

 

For more on the tight end class, read my early reports and statistical evals here, but my stances on these prospects have changed since the NFL Combine.

Offensive Tackles

How to read this table: “Tristan Wirfs, a 99th percentile offensive tackle prospect, is the OT2 and No. 10 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

9

Mekhi Becton

OT1

1.00

21yo that ran a 5.10 forty at 364 lbs

10

Tristan Wirfs

OT2

0.99

Power 5 starter, 96th percentile athlete

14

Jedrick Wills

OT3

0.98

21yo Alabama OT, 71st percentile athlete

17

Andrew Thomas

OT4

0.96

21yo Georgia OT, 67th percentile athlete

18

Austin Jackson

OT5

0.95

20yo USC OT, 88th percentile athlete

21

Isaiah Wilson

OT6

0.93

21yo Georgia OT, size hides avg speed

25

Joshua Jones

OT7

0.86

Good OT film at Houston, avg athlete

27

Ezra Cleveland

OT8

0.85

22yo Boise St. OT, 91st percentile athlete

34

Saahdiq Charles

OT9

0.72

20yo LSU OT, 58th percentile athlete

37

Matt Peart

OT10

0.71

99th percentile arms, bursty but not agile

39

Lucas Niang

OT11

0.71

21yo, big, 0 sacks since 2017, injuries

42

Prince Tega Wanogho

OT12

0.70

22yo Auburn OT with an elite name

65

Robert Hunt

OT13

0.55

23yo, 4-year starter at ULL, injured

81

Jack Driscoll

OT14

0.51

64th percentile athlete from Auburn

90

Terence Steele

OT15

0.49

80th percentile athleticism, Texas Tech OT

91

Yasir Durant

OT16

0.47

22yo Missouri OT, Big (6'6/331) and slow

103

Hakeem Adeniji

OT17

0.45

 

109

Ben Bartch

OT18

0.42

 

143

Tremayne Anchrum

OT19

0.34

 

160

Trey Adams

OT20

0.31

 

183

Charlie Heck

OT21

0.24

 

218

Calvin Throckmorton

OT22

0.19

 

229

Kyle Murphy

OT23

0.16

 

237

Colton Mckivitz

OT24

0.15

 

264

Cameron Clark

OT25

0.11

 

271

Alex Taylor

OT26

0.09

 

 

 

Interior Offensive Linemen

How to read this table: “Cesar Ruiz, a 99th percentile interior offensive linemen prospect, is the IOL1 and No. 20 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

20

Cesar Ruiz

IOL1

0.99

20yo Michigan C, 84th percentile athlete

30

Lloyd Cushenberry

IOL2

0.89

All-SEC at LSU, 61st percentile athlete

54

Damien Lewis

IOL3

0.74

LSU's thicker than oatmeal RG, 23yo

56

Matt Hennessy

IOL4

0.73

22yo Temple C, 71st percentile athlete

67

Ben Bredeson

IOL5

0.67

Multi-year captain at Michigan, All-B10

70

Nick Harris

IOL6

0.64

Older and very short, but thick and mobile

73

Netane Muti

IOL7

0.63

21yo Fresno St OG, 44 bench reps

78

Tyler Biadasz

IOL8

0.58

All-American C at Wisconsin, injuries

83

Shane Lemieux

IOL9

0.56

22yo Oregon OG, 54th percentile athlete

86

Jonah Jackson

IOL10

0.55

23yo Ohio St OG, 11th percentile athlete

93

Solomon Kindley

IOL11

0.54

Thick, powerful 22yo Georiga OG

95

Logan Stenberg

IOL12

0.54

21yo Kentucky OG, 15th percentile athlete

110

Mike Onwenu

IOL13

0.51

 

112

Simon Stepaniak

IOL14

0.50

 

115

Tyre Phillips

IOL15

0.49

 

121

John Simpson

IOL16

0.46

 

122

Cohl Cabral

IOL17

0.46

 

123

Darryl Williams

IOL18

0.45

 

130

Jake Hanson

IOL19

0.39

 

131

Danny Pinter

IOL20

0.39

 

137

Keith Ismael

IOL21

0.36

 

163

Cordel Iwuagwu

IOL22

0.30

 

164

Trystan Colon-Castillo

IOL23

0.29

 

205

John Molchon

IOL24

0.21

 

253

Jon Runyan

IOL25

0.10

 

 

 

Defensive Tackles

How to read this table: “Derrick Brown, a 91st percentile defensive tackle prospect, is the DT1 and No. 22 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

22

Derrick Brown

DT1

0.91

54 tackles led DT class, bad Combine

40

Javon Kinlaw

DT2

0.81

Twitched up, only 0.5 TFLs per game

55

Ross Blacklock

DT3

0.76

21yo, 9 TFLs, 29th percentile athlete

57

Justin Madubuike

DT5

0.73

22yo, 11.5 TFLs, 83rd percentile athlete

59

Leki Fotu

DT6

0.72

21yo, 6'5/330, avg production at Utah

61

James Lynch

DT7

0.71

98th percentile production, avg athlete

63

Jordan Elliott

DT4

0.71

22yo, 8.5 TFLs, 64th percentile athlete

74

Khalil Davis

DT8

0.63

100th percentile athlete, 8.0 sacks, 23yo

99

Rashard Lawrence

DT9

0.51

21yo, 6 TFLs at LSU, 31st percentile athlete

108

Neville Gallimore

DT10

0.48

 

119

Carlos Davis

DT11

0.45

 

133

Larrell Murchison

DT12

0.39

 

147

Malcolm Roach

DT13

0.34

 

148

DaVon Hamilton

DT14

0.34

 

169

McTelvin Agim

DT15

0.29

 

175

Raekwon Davis

DT16

0.27

 

215

Raequan Williams

DT17

0.17

 

225

Broderick Washington

DT18

0.14

 

240

Robert Windsor

DT19

0.08

 

245

John Penisini

DT20

0.06

 

261

Benito Jones

DT21

0.04

 

277

Darrion Daniels

DT22

0.03

 

 

 

Edge Rushers

How to read this table: “Chase Young, a 99th percentile edge prospect, is the EDGE1 and No. 3 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

3

Chase Young

EDGE1

0.99

Had a 99th percentile 'production score'

12

K'Lavon Chaisson

EDGE2

0.92

LSU's athletic, 20yo stand up rusher

36

Terrell Lewis

EDGE3

0.79

Bama's twitchy stand up rusher, injuries

38

Yetur Gross-Matos

EDGE4

0.79

Productive Penn St. pass rusher, lengthy

44

A.J. Epenesa

EDGE5

0.78

21yo, productive, 18th percentile athlete

47

Marlon Davidson

EDGE6

0.76

21yo, avg producer, 34th percentile athlete

49

Curtis Weaver

EDGE7

0.73

21yo, elite production (19.5 TFLs) at Boise

51

Zack Baun

EDGE8

0.73

19.5 TFLs, 60th percentile athlete, older

60

Josh Uche

EDGE9

0.70

72nd percentile age-adjusted production

71

Jonathan Greenard

EDGE10

0.67

Productive (16 TFLs), avg athlete, small

106

Bradlee Anae

EDGE11

0.56

 

113

Alex Highsmith

EDGE12

0.54

 

116

Anfernee Jennings

EDGE13

0.53

 

118

Jonathan Garvin

EDGE14

0.52

 

126

Alton Robinson

EDGE15

0.49

 

134

Kenny Willekes

EDGE16

0.44

 

139

Carter Coughlin

EDGE17

0.43

 

144

Jabari Zuniga

EDGE18

0.41

 

151

Khalid Kareem

EDGE19

0.38

 

166

Darrell Taylor

EDGE20

0.33

 

168

Julian Okwara

EDGE21

0.32

 

195

D.J. Wonnum

EDGE22

0.26

 

210

Trevis Gipson

EDGE23

0.24

 

226

Casey Toohill

EDGE24

0.17

 

256

Ladarius Hamilton

EDGE25

0.13

 

258

Kendall Coleman

EDGE26

0.12

 

263

Nick Coe

EDGE27

0.11

 

270

Jason Strowbridge

EDGE28

0.10

 

279

James Smith-Williams

EDGE29

0.08

 

283

Derrek Tuszka

EDGE30

0.07

 

284

Tipa Galeai

EDGE31

0.07

 

288

Chauncey Rivers

EDGE32

0.06

 

 

Linebackers

How to read this table: “Kenneth Murray, a 95th percentile linebacker prospect, is the LB2 and No. 23 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

7

Isaiah Simmons

LB1

1.00

98th percentile athleticism, production

23

Kenneth Murray

LB2

0.95

102 tackles, 88th percentile athlete, 21yo

28

Patrick Queen

LB3

0.93

20yo, playoffs star, 81st percentile athlete

79

Jordyn Brooks

LB4

0.80

9.8 tackles/Gm, 79th percentile athlete

82

Evan Weaver

LB5

0.79

21yo, 99th percentile production but slow

87

Malik Harrison

LB6

0.77

72nd percentile athlete, 16.5 TFLs as a Sr

105

Jacob Phillips

LB7

0.74

 

117

Akeem Davis-Gaither

LB8

0.70

 

125

Willie Gay

LB9

0.69

 

149

Davion Taylor

LB10

0.60

 

161

Logan Wilson

LB11

0.51

 

162

Troy Dye

LB12

0.50

 

173

Khaleke Hudson

LB13

0.46

 

184

Kamal Martin

LB14

0.39

 

188

Joe Bachie

LB15

0.39

 

190

David Woodward

LB16

0.38

 

197

Michael Pinckney

LB17

0.35

 

198

Shaquille Quarterman

LB18

0.35

 

200

Jordan Mack

LB19

0.34

 

207

Markus Bailey

LB20

0.29

 

216

Clay Johnston

LB21

0.27

 

223

Michael Divinity Jr.

LB22

0.26

 

246

Cameron Brown

LB23

0.18

 

254

Cale Garrett

LB24

0.17

 

255

Justin Strnad

LB25

0.16

 

262

Shaun Bradley

LB26

0.14

 

267

Francis Bernard

LB27

0.12

 

268

De'Jon Harris

LB28

0.12

 

275

Daniel Bituli

LB29

0.11

 

280

Mykal Walker

LB30

0.09

 

281

Dante Olson

LB31

0.09

 

286

Azur Kamara

LB32

0.07

 

 

 

Corners

How to read this table: “C.J. Henderson, a 97th percentile corner prospect, is the CB2 and No. 11 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

6

Jeffrey Okudah

CB1

1.00

96th percentile athlete with no sloppy film

11

C.J. Henderson

CB2

0.97

93rd percentile production, 4.39 forty

33

Kristian Fulton

CB3

0.90

21yo LSU CB, 69th percentile athlete

35

Trevon Diggs

CB4

0.87

Alabama CB1, athletic/lengthy, iffy effort

41

A.J. Terrell

CB5

0.85

21yo Clemson CB, 66th percentile athlete

75

Jaylon Johnson

CB6

0.71

21yo ball hawk, 27th percentile athlete

92

Jeff Gladney

CB7

0.61

23yo TCU CB, 25th percentile athlete

100

Cameron Dantzler

CB8

0.57

21yo Miss State CB, 4th percentile athlete

102

Noah Igbinoghene

CB9

0.55

 

111

Amik Robertson

CB10

0.53

 

138

Bryce Hall

CB11

0.45

 

141

Lamar Jackson

CB12

0.44

 

142

Damon Arnette

CB13

0.43

 

145

Lavert Hill

CB14

0.41

 

150

Darnay Holmes

CB15

0.40

 

154

Harrison Hand

CB16

0.36

 

156

Troy Pride Jr.

CB17

0.36

 

157

Javelin Guidry

CB18

0.35

 

165

Shyheim Carter

CB19

0.31

 

176

Michael Ojemudia

CB20

0.29

 

177

A.J. Green

CB21

0.28

 

180

Essang Bassey

CB22

0.26

 

192

Reggie Robinson

CB23

0.22

 

208

Josiah Scott

CB24

0.20

 

220

Kindle Vildor

CB25

0.18

 

224

Stanford Samuels

CB26

0.15

 

238

John Reid

CB27

0.10

 

242

Stantley Thomas-Oliver

CB28

0.09

 

248

Dane Jackson

CB29

0.08

 

259

Javaris Davis

CB30

0.06

 

260

Brian Cole

CB31

0.05

 

265

Trajan Bandy

CB32

0.03

 

266

Thakarius Keyes

CB33

0.03

 

 

 

Safeties

How to read this table: “Grant Delpit, a 90th percentile safety prospect, is the S2 and No. 45 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

29

Xavier McKinney

S1

0.96

Smart 21yo producer, 13th percentile athlete

45

Grant Delpit

S2

0.90

21yo LSU safety, average production

62

Antoine Winfield Jr.

S3

0.83

21yo, very productive but undersized

88

Jeremy Chinn

S4

0.69

98th percentile athlete, good D2 producer

96

Terrell Burgess

S5

0.65

21yo Utah safety, 38th percentile athlete

101

Ashtyn Davis

S6

0.64

23yo, avg producer at Cal, didn't test

107

Kyle Dugger

S7

0.61

 

120

Brandon Jones

S8

0.56

 

136

K'Von Wallace

S9

0.50

 

146

Julian Blackmon

S10

0.47

 

153

Jordan Fuller

S11

0.42

 

155

Jalen Elliott

S12

0.41

 

158

Antoine Brooks

S13

0.40

 

167

Geno Stone

S14

0.34

 

171

Alohi Gilman

S15

0.32

 

185

Kamren Curl

S16

0.25

 

191

J.R. Reed

S17

0.23

 

217

Josh Metellus

S18

0.13

 

219

Daniel Thomas

S19

0.12

 

221

Chris Miller

S20

0.11

 

231

Myles Bryant

S21

0.08

 

239

Jaylinn Hawkins

S22

0.06

 

241

Rodney Clemons

S23

0.06

 

244

Grayland Arnold

S24

0.04

 

251

Tanner Muse

S25

0.03

 

252

Nevelle Clarke

S26

0.01

 

269

L'Jarius Sneed

S27

0.00

 

 

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

How to read this table: “Chase Young, a 99th percentile edge prospect, is the EDGE1 and No. 3 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

Overall

Prospect

Pos

Percentile

Notes

1

Joe Burrow

QB1

0.98

Ranked 4th-of-179 in my QB database

2

Tua Tagovailoa

QB2

0.93

2nd in Total QBR in 2018 and 2019

3

Chase Young

EDGE1

0.99

Had a 99th percentile 'production score'

4

Jalen Hurts

QB3

0.91

Efficient 21yo passer with rushing ability

5

Justin Herbert

QB4

0.82

Traits paired with above-avg production

6

Jeffrey Okudah

CB1

1.00

96th percentile athlete with no sloppy film

7

Isaiah Simmons

LB1

1.00

98th percentile athleticism, production

8

CeeDee Lamb

WR1

0.98

99th percentile production, 15.1 YPT

9

Mekhi Becton

OT1

1.00

21yo that ran a 5.10 forty at 364 lbs

10

Tristan Wirfs

OT2

0.99

Power 5 starter, 96th percentile athlete

11

C.J. Henderson

CB2

0.97

93rd percentile production, 4.39 forty

12

K'Lavon Chaisson

EDGE2

0.92

LSU's athletic, 20yo stand up rusher

13

Jordan Love

QB5

0.69

Awful numbers, will still be drafted high

14

Jedrick Wills

OT3

0.98

21yo Alabama OT, 71st percentile athlete

15

Jerry Jeudy

WR2

0.96

96th percentile production at Alabama

16

Henry Ruggs

WR3

0.96

4.27 forty, 13.5 YPT only trails Lamb

17

Andrew Thomas

OT4

0.96

21yo Georgia OT, 67th percentile athlete

18

Austin Jackson

OT5

0.95

20yo USC OT, 88th percentile athlete

19

Justin Jefferson

WR4

0.95

111-1,540-18 as a 20yo, 4.43 forty

20

Cesar Ruiz

IOL1

0.99

20yo Michigan C, 84th percentile athlete

21

Isaiah Wilson

OT6

0.93

21yo Georgia OT, size hides avg speed

22

Derrick Brown

DT1

0.91

54 tackles led DT class, bad Combine

23

Kenneth Murray

LB2

0.95

102 tackles, 88th percentile athlete, 21yo

24

Anthony Gordon

QB6

0.62

95th percentile in Total EPA, small arm

25

Joshua Jones

OT7

0.86

Good OT film at Houston, avg athlete

26

Jake Fromm

QB7

0.61

Below-average stats/traits but smart

27

Ezra Cleveland

OT8

0.85

22yo Boise St. OT, 91st percentile athlete

28

Patrick Queen

LB3

0.93

20yo, playoffs star, 81st percentile athlete

29

Xavier McKinney

S1

0.96

Productive 21yo, 13th percentile athlete

30

Lloyd Cushenberry

IOL2

0.89

All-SEC at LSU, 61st percentile athlete

31

Tee Higgins

WR5

0.89

6'4/216, only 21yo, 13 TDs at Clemson

32

Jacob Eason

QB8

0.57

Big arm but 1 year of average production

33

Kristian Fulton

CB3

0.90

21yo LSU CB, 69th percentile athlete

34

Saahdiq Charles

OT9

0.72

20yo LSU OT, 58th percentile athlete

35

Trevon Diggs

CB4

0.87

Alabama CB1, athletic/lengthy, iffy effort

36

Terrell Lewis

EDGE3

0.79

Bama's twitchy stand up rusher, injuries

37

Matt Peart

OT10

0.71

99th percentile arms, bursty but not agile

38

Yetur Gross-Matos

EDGE4

0.79

Productive Penn St. pass rusher, lengthy

39

Lucas Niang

OT11

0.71

21yo, big, 0 sacks since 2017, injuries

40

Javon Kinlaw

DT2

0.81

Twitched up, only 0.5 TFLs per game

41

A.J. Terrell

CB5

0.85

21yo Clemson CB, 66th percentile athlete

42

Prince Tega Wanogho

OT12

0.70

22yo Auburn OT with an elite name

43

Denzel Mims

WR6

0.85

66-1,020-12 last yr, 90th percentile athlete

44

A.J. Epenesa

EDGE5

0.78

21yo, productive, 18th percentile athlete

45

Grant Delpit

S2

0.90

21yo LSU safety, average production

46

Brandon Aiyuk

WR7

0.83

Late bloomer, 12 YPT, above-avg athlete

47

Marlon Davidson

EDGE6

0.76

21yo, avg producer, 34th percentile athlete

48

Chase Claypool

WR8

0.83

21yo, 6'4/238, elite athlete, productive

49

Curtis Weaver

EDGE7

0.73

21yo, elite production (19.5 TFLs) at Boise

50

Cole Kmet

TE1

0.89

21yo, 65th percentile athlete, ND baseball

51

Zack Baun

EDGE8

0.73

19.5 TFLs, 60th percentile athlete, older

52

Laviska Shenault

WR9

0.82

21yo, big producer/athlete when healthy

53

KJ Hamler

WR10

0.82

Small but 20yo and fast, 70 YPG, drops

54

Damien Lewis

IOL3

0.74

LSU's thicker than oatmeal RG, 23yo

55

Ross Blacklock

DT3

0.76

21yo, 9 TFLs, 29th percentile athlete

56

Matt Hennessy

IOL4

0.73

22yo Temple C, 71st percentile athlete

57

Justin Madubuike

DT5

0.73

22yo, 11.5 TFLs, 83rd percentile athlete

58

Jonathan Taylor

RB1

0.96

3 seasons of 1,975+ RuYDs, 4.39 speed

59

Leki Fotu

DT6

0.72

21yo, 6'5/330, avg production at Utah

60

Josh Uche

EDGE9

0.70

72nd percentile age-adjusted production

61

James Lynch

DT7

0.71

98th percentile production, avg athlete

62

Antoine Winfield Jr.

S3

0.83

21yo, very productive but undersized

63

Jordan Elliott

DT4

0.71

22yo, 8.5 TFLs, 64th percentile athlete

64

J.K. Dobbins

RB2

0.95

21yo, 161 ToYD/G, most 20+ yard rushes

65

Robert Hunt

OT13

0.55

23yo, 4-year starter at ULL, injured

66

Gabriel Davis

WR11

0.75

21yo, 103 YD/G at UCF, avg athlete

67

Ben Bredeson

IOL5

0.67

Multi-year captain at Michigan, All-B10

68

Hunter Bryant

TE2

0.83

21yo, great producer, oddly bad Combine

69

Jalen Reagor

WR12

0.73

Bursty, early-age producer but 6.9 YPT

70

Nick Harris

IOL6

0.64

Older and very short, but thick and mobile

71

Jonathan Greenard

EDGE10

0.67

Productive (16 TFLs), avg athlete, small

72

Adam Trautman

TE3

0.81

Elite producer at Dayton, agile, avg speed

73

Netane Muti

IOL7

0.63

21yo Fresno St OG, 44 bench reps

74

Khalil Davis

DT8

0.63

100th percentile athlete, 8.0 sacks, 23yo

75

Jaylon Johnson

CB6

0.71

21yo ball hawk, 27th percentile athlete

76

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB3

0.89

21yo, 94 RuYD/G, 55 catches, 4.60 forty

77

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE4

0.75

Up-and-down producer, straight-line speed

78

Tyler Biadasz

IOL8

0.58

All-American C at Wisconsin, injuries

79

Jordyn Brooks

LB4

0.80

9.8 tackles/Gm, 79th percentile athlete

80

Donovan Peoples-Jones

WR13

0.68

21yo, only 40 YD/G, 97th percentile athlete

81

Jack Driscoll

OT14

0.51

64th percentile athlete from Auburn

82

Evan Weaver

LB5

0.79

21yo, 99th percentile production but slow

83

Shane Lemieux

IOL9

0.56

22yo Oregon OG, 54th percentile athlete

84

D'Andre Swift

RB4

0.82

21yo, efficient runner, 73 career catches

85

Tyler Johnson

WR14

0.67

99th percentile market share, iffy athlete

86

Jonah Jackson

IOL10

0.55

23yo Ohio St OG, 11th percentile athlete

87

Malik Harrison

LB6

0.77

72nd percentile athlete, 16.5 TFLs as a Sr

88

Jeremy Chinn

S4

0.69

98th percentile athlete, good D2 producer

89

Devin Duvernay

WR15

0.66

107 YD/G at Texas, 4.39 speed at 5'10/200

90

Terence Steele

OT15

0.49

80th percentile athleticism, Texas Tech OT

91

Yasir Durant

OT16

0.47

22yo Missouri OT, Big (6'6/331) and slow

92

Jeff Gladney

CB7

0.61

23yo TCU CB, 25th percentile athlete

93

Solomon Kindley

IOL11

0.54

Thick, powerful 22yo Georiga OG

94

Bryan Edwards

WR16

0.65

Early SCAR producer, 82 YD/G, foot inj.

95

Logan Stenberg

IOL12

0.54

21yo Kentucky OG, 15th percentile athlete

96

Terrell Burgess

S5

0.65

21yo Utah safety, 38th percentile athlete

97

Michael Pittman

WR17

0.63

98 YD/G at USC, 4.52 forty at 6'4/223

98

Cam Akers

RB5

0.76

20yo, 14 TDs/30 catches at FSU, 4.47 forty

99

Rashard Lawrence

DT9

0.51

21yo, 6 TFLs at LSU, 31st percentile athlete

100

Cameron Dantzler

CB8

0.57

21yo Miss State CB, 4th percentile athlete

101

Ashtyn Davis

S6

0.64

23yo, avg producer at Cal, didn't test

102

Noah Igbinoghene

CB9

0.55

 

103

Hakeem Adeniji

OT17

0.45

 

104

Isaiah Hodgins

WR18

0.62

 

105

Jacob Phillips

LB7

0.74

 

106

Bradlee Anae

EDGE11

0.56

 

107

Kyle Dugger

S7

0.61

 

108

Neville Gallimore

DT10

0.48

 

109

Ben Bartch

OT18

0.42

 

110

Mike Onwenu

IOL13

0.51

 

111

Amik Robertson

CB10

0.53

 

112

Simon Stepaniak

IOL14

0.50

 

113

Alex Highsmith

EDGE12

0.54

 

114

Colby Parkinson

TE5

0.68

 

115

Tyre Phillips

IOL15

0.49

 

116

Anfernee Jennings

EDGE13

0.53

 

117

Akeem Davis-Gaither

LB8

0.70

 

118

Jonathan Garvin

EDGE14

0.52

 

119

Carlos Davis

DT11

0.45

 

120

Brandon Jones

S8

0.56

 

121

John Simpson

IOL16

0.46

 

122

Cohl Cabral

IOL17

0.46

 

123

Darryl Williams

IOL18

0.45

 

124

Harrison Bryant

TE6

0.62

 

125

Willie Gay

LB9

0.69

 

126

Alton Robinson

EDGE15

0.49

 

127

Antonio Gandy-Golden

WR19

0.57

 

128

Zack Moss

RB6

0.63

 

129

Brycen Hopkins

TE7

0.59

 

130

Jake Hanson

IOL19

0.39

 

131

Danny Pinter

IOL20

0.39

 

132

AJ Dillon

RB7

0.62

 

133

Larrell Murchison

DT12

0.39

 

134

Kenny Willekes

EDGE16

0.44

 

135

Thaddeus Moss

TE8

0.56

 

136

K'Von Wallace

S9

0.50

 

137

Keith Ismael

IOL21

0.36

 

138

Bryce Hall

CB11

0.45

 

139

Carter Coughlin

EDGE17

0.43

 

140

Eno Benjamin

RB8

0.56

 

141

Lamar Jackson

CB12

0.44

 

142

Damon Arnette

CB13

0.43

 

143

Tremayne Anchrum

OT19

0.34

 

144

Jabari Zuniga

EDGE18

0.41

 

145

Lavert Hill

CB14

0.41

 

146

Julian Blackmon

S10

0.47

 

147

Malcolm Roach

DT13

0.34

 

148

DaVon Hamilton

DT14

0.34

 

149

Davion Taylor

LB10

0.60

 

150

Darnay Holmes

CB15

0.40

 

151

Khalid Kareem

EDGE19

0.38

 

152

Jacob Breeland

TE9

0.46

 

153

Jordan Fuller

S11

0.42

 

154

Harrison Hand

CB16

0.36

 

155

Jalen Elliott

S12

0.41

 

156

Troy Pride Jr.

CB17

0.36

 

157

Javelin Guidry

CB18

0.35

 

158

Antoine Brooks

S13

0.40

 

159

Quez Watkins

WR20

0.47

 

160

Trey Adams

OT20

0.31

 

161

Logan Wilson

LB11

0.51

 

162

Troy Dye

LB12

0.50

 

163

Cordel Iwuagwu

IOL22

0.30

 

164

Trystan Colon-Castillo

IOL23

0.29

 

165

Shyheim Carter

CB19

0.31

 

166

Darrell Taylor

EDGE20

0.33

 

167

Geno Stone

S14

0.34

 

168

Julian Okwara

EDGE21

0.32

 

169

McTelvin Agim

DT15

0.29

 

170

Collin Johnson

WR21

0.42

 

171

Alohi Gilman

S15

0.32

 

172

Quintez Cephus

WR22

0.41

 

173

Khaleke Hudson

LB13

0.46

 

174

Nathan Stanley

QB9

0.26

 

175

Raekwon Davis

DT16

0.27

 

176

Michael Ojemudia

CB20

0.29

 

177

A.J. Green

CB21

0.28

 

178

Omar Bayless

WR23

0.39

 

179

Antonio Gibson

RB9

0.43

 

180

Essang Bassey

CB22

0.26

 

181

Van Jefferson

WR24

0.38

 

182

Marquez Callaway

WR25

0.36

 

183

Charlie Heck

OT21

0.24

 

184

Kamal Martin

LB14

0.39

 

185

Kamren Curl

S16

0.25

 

186

Steven Montez

QB10

0.25

 

187

Cody White

WR26

0.34

 

188

Joe Bachie

LB15

0.39

 

189

Dezmon Patmon

WR27

0.33

 

190

David Woodward

LB16

0.38

 

191

J.R. Reed

S17

0.23

 

192

Reggie Robinson

CB23

0.22

 

193

K.J. Hill

WR28

0.31

 

194

Freddie Swain

WR29

0.31

 

195

D.J. Wonnum

EDGE22

0.26

 

196

Quartney Davis

WR30

0.29

 

197

Michael Pinckney

LB17

0.35

 

198

Shaquille Quarterman

LB18

0.35

 

199

Josiah Deguara

TE10

0.32

 

200

Jordan Mack

LB19

0.34

 

201

Brian Lewerke

QB11

0.23

 

202

Ke'Shawn Vaughn

RB10

0.37

 

203

Lamical Perine

RB11

0.37

 

204

Devin Asiasi

TE11

0.31

 

205

John Molchon

IOL24

0.21

 

206

Shea Patterson

QB12

0.22

 

207

Markus Bailey

LB20

0.29

 

208

Josiah Scott

CB24

0.20

 

209

Jauan Jennings

WR31

0.27

 

210

Trevis Gipson

EDGE23

0.24

 

211

James Proche

WR32

0.27

 

212

Darrynton Evans

RB12

0.34

 

213

Joshua Kelley

RB13

0.33

 

214

Lawrence Cager

WR33

0.25

 

215

Raequan Williams

DT17

0.17

 

216

Clay Johnston

LB21

0.27

 

217

Josh Metellus

S18

0.13

 

218

Calvin Throckmorton

OT22

0.19

 

219

Daniel Thomas

S19

0.12

 

220

Kindle Vildor

CB25

0.18

 

221

Chris Miller

S20

0.11

 

222

Stephen Sullivan

TE12

0.23

 

223

Michael Divinity Jr.

LB22

0.26

 

224

Stanford Samuels

CB26

0.15

 

225

Broderick Washington

DT18

0.14

 

226

Casey Toohill

EDGE24

0.17

 

227

Juwan Johnson

WR34

0.22

 

228

Binjimen Victor

WR35

0.18

 

229

Kyle Murphy

OT23

0.16

 

230

Anthony McFarland

RB14

0.28

 

231

Myles Bryant

S21

0.08

 

232

Kendrick Rogers

WR36

0.17

 

233

Charlie Taumoepeau

TE13

0.18

 

234

Darnell Mooney

WR37

0.17

 

235

Sean McKeon

TE14

0.17

 

236

Trishton Jackson

WR38

0.16

 

237

Colton Mckivitz

OT24

0.15

 

238

John Reid

CB27

0.10

 

239

Jaylinn Hawkins

S22

0.06

 

240

Robert Windsor

DT19

0.08

 

241

Rodney Clemons

S23

0.06

 

242

Stantley Thomas-Oliver

CB28

0.09

 

243

Dalton Keene

TE15

0.14

 

244

Grayland Arnold

S24

0.04

 

245

John Penisini

DT20

0.06

 

246

Cameron Brown

LB23

0.18

 

247

Cole McDonald

QB13

0.15

 

248

Dane Jackson

CB29

0.08

 

249

Austin Mack

WR39

0.12

 

250

Kalija Lipscomb

WR40

0.12

 

251

Tanner Muse

S25

0.03

 

252

Nevelle Clarke

S26

0.01

 

253

Jon Runyan

IOL25

0.10

 

254

Cale Garrett

LB24

0.17

 

255

Justin Strnad

LB25

0.16

 

256

Ladarius Hamilton

EDGE25

0.13

 

257

Michael Warren

RB15

0.21

 

258

Kendall Coleman

EDGE26

0.12

 

259

Javaris Davis

CB30

0.06

 

260

Brian Cole

CB31

0.05

 

261

Benito Jones

DT21

0.04

 

262

Shaun Bradley

LB26

0.14

 

263

Nick Coe

EDGE27

0.11

 

264

Cameron Clark

OT25

0.11

 

265

Trajan Bandy

CB32

0.03

 

266

Thakarius Keyes

CB33

0.03

 

267

Francis Bernard

LB27

0.12

 

268

De'Jon Harris

LB28

0.12

 

269

L'Jarius Sneed

S27

0.00

 

270

Jason Strowbridge

EDGE28

0.10

 

271

Alex Taylor

OT26

0.09

 

272

Jared Pinkney

TE16

0.09

 

273

John Hightower

WR41

0.08

 

274

C.J. O'Grady

TE17

0.07

 

275

Daniel Bituli

LB29

0.11

 

276

Joe Reed

WR42

0.07

 

277

Darrion Daniels

DT22

0.03

 

278

K.J. Osborn

WR43

0.06

 

279

James Smith-Williams

EDGE29

0.08

 

280

Mykal Walker

LB30

0.09

 

281

Dante Olson

LB31

0.09

 

282

Tyrie Cleveland

WR44

0.05

 

283

Derrek Tuszka

EDGE30

0.07

 

284

Tipa Galeai

EDGE31

0.07

 

285

Stephen Guidry

WR45

0.05

 

286

Azur Kamara

LB32

0.07

 

287

Scottie Phillips

RB16

0.15

 

288

Chauncey Rivers

EDGE32

0.06

 

289

LeVante Bellamy

RB17

0.14

 

290

Tony Brown

WR46

0.04

 

291

Charlie Woerner

TE18

0.04

 

292

J.J. Taylor

RB18

0.11

 

293

DeeJay Dallas

RB19

0.11

 

294

Salvon Ahmed

RB20

0.11

 

295

Lynn Bowden Jr.

WR47

0.03

 

296

Dom Wood-Anderson

TE19

0.02

 

297

Ben LeMay

RB21

0.10

 

298

Chris Finke

WR48

0.02

 

299

James Morgan

QB14

0.08

 

300

Mitchell Wilcox

TE20

0.01

 

 

 

The Process

  1. Gather data (athleticism, college production, and NFL production) for all drafted players from the 2005 draft class and on.

  2. Build two different multiple-linear regression models based on the first step.

    1. Adjusted SPARQ = position-adjusted athleticism

    2. Production Score = age and team-adjusted college production

  3. Build the final multiple-linear regression model using Adjusted SPARQ, Production Score, and draft capital that predicts Approximate Value per Game over a prospect’s first four NFL seasons. This means the model is accounting for film as well. 

  4. Adjust the final model’s projections to further account for positional value. In terms of importance, I have the positions tiered as:

    1. QB

    2. CB, EDGE, OT, WR

    3. DT, LB, S, IOL, TE

    4. RB

 

 

What's Next

1. Position-Adjusted SPARQ

2. Early QB Rankings (Analytics)

3. Early TE Rankings (Analytics)

4. Early RB Rankings (Analytics)

5. Early WR Rankings (Analytics)

6. Which Combine Tests Matter

7. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Offense)

8. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Defense)

9. Early 2020 Mock Draft

10. Analytics Top 300 Rankings

12. Winks Top 100 Rankings

13. Final 2020 Mock Draft

14. Draft Grades


Source URL: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/nfl-draft-preview/analytics-top-300-rankings-2020-nfl-draft